President Donald Trump’s big bill in Congress would unleash trillions in tax cuts and slash spending - but it also spike deficits by $2.4 trillion over the decade and leaves some 10.9 million more people without health insurance. This is raising the political stakes for the GOP's signature domestic priority, and causing some in the party to question where this bill is taking America. There's plenty of analysis about what gets cut, especially when it comes to health care, but what about the cost of this bill?
That analysis comes at a crucial moment as Trump is pushing Congress, where Republicans have majority control, to send the final product to his desk to become law by the Fourth of July. The House passed the bill last month by a single vote, but it's now slogging through the Senate, where Republicans want a number of significant changes, including those discussed with Trump.
"This bill is massive," says CBS News Business analyst and host of "Jill on Money," Jill Schlesinger. "It's more than 1,000 pages. It's sitting in the Senate now, and there's a lot of controversy. Not just left, right, but the controversy is really starting to form around what does this bill do to the nation's finances?"
The math problem and cutting of certain programs is causing some on the right, including Trump hardliners like Sen. Josh Hawley (Missouri) and Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) to take a hard look at the bill before it gets through the Senate - without too many votes to spare for the GOP.
Schlesinger says there's misunderstanding about what that deficit means.
"And we talk about two terms. I have to give you just a quick definition. So we talk about the deficit," says Schlesinger, speaking to the WCCO Morning News. "Sometimes people are like, what does that mean? OK, it means that we spend more money than we take in. So we spend more money on all the stuff the government spends money on. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, all the other stuff, but, that amount exceeds tax revenue and tariff revenue. So deficit, we're minus, OK. Every year that you have a deficit, you've got to finance it, you've got to borrow money. That's where the US government bond market comes in. And when you have a whole bunch of deficits year after year, which we've had pretty much this century, like, basically starting in the year 2000, then that number gets massive and you have to keep borrowing money. That massive amount is now $36 trillion, that's the nation's debt."
Of that debt, $29 trillion of that is held by the public. That means the U.S. has a lot of intergovernmental holdings and that number is spooking some Republicans like Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, who says he's not comfortable adding more. And he's not alone.
"We've got a massive amount of debt, we've got to finance it, and the folks who describe themselves as deficit hawks like Senator Paul, he is like freaking out. Rand Paul, he's like, 'oh, we have too much debt, it costs too much to finance it, and that's gonna be a problem over time.' So those folks are the ones that are really critical in the Senate fight right now because if they stand their ground, they're going to say too much spending, dial something back," explains Schlesinger.
"I think they're asking for too much money," Paul said on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" last week.
It's the Congressional Budget Office saying this is going to add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next decade, and there are now Republicans who say that group is always wrong. Schlesinger says the nonpartisan CBO is usually correct.
"I'm not sure that's exactly accurate," she said. "I think they are. I would rather listen to nonpartisan groups who study this all the time rather than politicians. Because, are you really gonna have these politicians do your taxes? There's not one of us who would hire any of these guys."
In simple terms, the financial situation the U.S. finds itself in is increasingly dire. Moody's Ratings last month slashed U.S. long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Aa1 from Aaa citing rising government debt and interest payment ratios.
"This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns," said a release by Moody's Ratings.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told congressional leaders last month that the federal government could be unable to pay its bills as soon as August if Congress doesn't act.
The CBO was created so it wasn't just the Office of Management and Budget in the White House that had these numbers. It was supposed to be a nonpartisan group to examine the nation's finances.
"I talked to people on the left and the right, Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, and all these different economists, and they're all looking at me and saying the numbers are big," Schlesinger said Monday. "OK, whether you think it's $2.4, $1.8, $3.6 trillion, these are big numbers. And we already have a lot of debt."
What does the White House say about the "Big, Beautiful Bill?"
"So-called “forecasts” (including by the CBO) predicting higher deficits are based on a false assumption that President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts will expire," says a White House release. "In reality, extending the CURRENT tax rates — which this legislation does — has zero impact on the deficit."
The U.S. has been carrying some kind of debt since the Revolutionary War. The debt began to climb more steadily into the 20th century and as WWII began. But in the mid-1980s, it crept higher and higher and since 2001, the national debt has skyrocketed. It's now more than tripled from around $10 trillion in 2001 to over $36 trillion now according to the Treasury Department.
"The real drivers of those debt levels is usually something that happens in a really scary situation like war," says Schlesinger. "Afghanistan and Iraq wars, the 2008 Great Recession, COVID-19, and so those things are emergencies and spending that Congress does. But then if you just are piling on tax cuts and more spending and less revenue that's coming in, that's where you see we have a problem with the national debt."
If it's a particular side you want to blame, you can find plenty of blame on both sides. It's gone up under Democrat presidents and Republican presidents. A Democratic-led Congress or a Republican-led Congress? Same thing. It's not just Donald Trump. Or Joe Biden. Or Barack Obama. Or George Bush (either one).
Strong Republican supports of Trump, such as Sen. Ron Johnson (Wisconsin), have been extremely critical of the bill and its potential impact to the nation's debt.
"Other than during World War II, the increase in spending we’ve experienced over the past six years is unprecedented," Sen. Johnson wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. "After the war, Congress and President Truman understood the importance of returning spending to normal levels."
Johnson notes that didn't happen - and government spending just continued unabated for decades despite a desire to better balance Congressional spending.
From the 2019 fiscal year to 2021, government spending increased by about 50%, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Tax cuts, stimulus programs, increased government spending, and decreased tax revenue caused by widespread unemployment generally account for sharp rises in the national debt.
Eventually, says Schlesinger, someone has to pay for it.
"Your kids are going to have to pay for this debt usually in the form of higher interest rates, slower economic growth, or there are going to be changes," adds Schlesinger. "Either some programs are going to get cut or taxes are going to go up, but this is not sustainable, the path that we are on."
Then there is the debt ceiling, or the U.S. Treasury Department's "credit limit." That is the maximum amount of debt set by the U.S. Congress for the federal government to fulfill its payment obligations. Since 1960, the U.S. Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit.
Most Republicans in the Senate are planning to raise that debt ceiling another $4 or $5 trillion (or if Sen. Paul has his way, $500 billion). But some - including the Washington Post - say another $24 trillion might be needed if the tax and spending policies in the "Big Beautiful Bill Act" were set in motion.
With that, a potential bill is coming due - and it could amount to over $50 trillion. But still, the Trump Administration disagrees with all of those assessments and says this bill is going to reduce that deficit.
"Upon enactment the bill — and through increased tariffs revenues, discretionary spending cuts, and reversing Biden-era regulations — the Trump Administration will have taken actions that reduce deficits by at least $6.6 trillion over the next decade," the White House says.
Time will tell whether the politicians or economists get this one right.