​Minnesota is missing it's usual bevy of severe summer storms

Former WCCO Radio Host and Meteorologist Paul Douglas says that these weather patterns lack the moisture needed to generate major storm activity.

"Typical year we get 30 to 40 tornadoes," Douglas explains. "We're below that number, and droughts sort of breed droughts. Once you're in a dry pattern, it can be really hard to reverse that."

So far in 2026, and we are past the traditional tornado season as they tend to drop off in August, the state has had 14.

That's good news in many respects. Obviously, tornadoes can be damaging and even deadly. But it points to a bigger issue, and that is a lack of moisture. And drought-heavy years tend to come with few tornadoes. 1988 was one of the most historic and deep droughts in state history, and there were just five tornadoes that year.

Much of the state is currently in moderate to severe drought, a situation that has been consistent over the last couple of summers. Douglas says it's too soon to tell whether a broader shift later in the year will eventually arrive to break the ongoing dry cycle. And that dry air just doesn't have enough moisture to get things brewing, and produce the kind of heavy summer rains we depend on.

"July was one of the hottest on record statewide," Douglas adds. "And blame the drought. You can't get tornadoes and hailstorms if you don't have significant moisture to draw upon."

Douglas says this dry streak the state is on has been trending for years, keeping severe weather mostly out of the picture for now. That doesn't mean there haven't been any storms. It's just less, and it's not enough.

Rather than a regular dose of severe thunderstorms rolling through the region, most systems have tracked well to the south. That's a set-up Minnesota is more familiar with in winter, when dry air can push snow events south. But now it's happening in the summer, and it's costing the state a lot of rain, instead frequently dumping it on states like Iowa, and leaving Minnesota with the trickles on the northern edge.

There's very little drought reported in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and certainly Indiana which has been besieged by storms and tornadoes recently.

Douglas also says Minnesota is getting more extreme swings in weather. He points out in his Minnesota Star Tribune column that 2014-2019 was the wettest six-year stretch on record for Minnesota. And that has been followed by a shift to dry year, after dry year. And then when it does rain, the ground is too dry to hold onto the moisture, leading to more run-off, compounding the issue.

Even a drive over the mighty Mississippi River shows moisture is lacking. Severe low water levels have left some public boat ramps, such as in Itasca County, high and dry, failing to reach the receding water line. Closer to the Twin Cities, river stages are low for this time of year, though general commercial and recreational use continues. But some of the channels around north and downtown Minneapolis are noticeably low.

The current DNR stream flow map shows extremely low flow rates for rivers and streams in north-central and northeastern Minnesota. Without heavy summer rains, Minnesota's 10,000 lakes and numerous rivers and streams will struggle to stay at levels we're more familiar with.

Four watersheds are currently in the Drought Warning Response Phase:

• Mississippi Headwaters Watershed
• Missouri Big-Sioux Watershed
• Rainy River Watershed
• Western Lake Superior

The remaining statewide drought plan watersheds are in Drought Watch Response Phase, according to the DNR.

As for our current weather, there's a chance the next couple of days of "scattered" or "isolated" showers, far from the soaking the state needs.