Warm up the shovels and snow blowers again. Minnesota, this is kind of March in a nutshell, isn't it? You get teased with spring, then brought back to reality with another blast of winter. Snow is on the way Tuesday night into Wednesday and the timing is going to make it a very messy one.
WCCO Chief Meteorologist Chris Shaffer says this incoming storm should be very similar to the system that came in March 4 and 5.
"It's going to be a wet, heavy snow again," Shaffer told the WCCO Morning News with Vineeta Sawkar. "I remind you in advance, be careful shoveling. Remember that last snow? Northern metro, you're going to see much less than people in the southern metro."
It's hard to fathom more winter coming in with the weather on Tuesday, which will be a very nice day, not quite as glorious as Monday. Highs will be around 50 which is well above average, with some clouds and a little breezy.
When you head to bed Tuesday? No problem. But when you wake up, it's a different story. It's starts with a little bit of light rain that Shaffer says will change over to a few flakes, which he says shouldn't accumulate to overnight.
"It's tomorrow morning when it hits," Shaffer explains. "It's coming up from the south. So if you're listening south of the Twin Cities, you'll get a taste of it maybe 4:00, 5:00, 6:00 in the morning. Whereas in the Twin Cities, I don't think the snow arrives till 6:00 to 8:00, and that's when it starts."
Early commuters in the Twin Cities might be spared spared the worse of it. It will likely be snowing, but the roads should be decent very early Wednesday. But the conditions will get worse as the morning commute rolls on.
"The snow will continue through the morning hours, through your lunch break, and finally wrap up, I would say afternoon, anywhere between 2:00 and 4:00," Shaffer said. "I think the drive home is going to be rougher just because the MnDOT crews will be trying to catch up with this. The good news is they can pre-treat roads because there's no heavy rain coming to wash that away. That will help."
There will be wind but the type of snow that falls will mitigate the blowing, at least in the Twin Cities where blowing and drifting shouldn't be much of an issue. South it is a different story with winds high enough that wet snow won't matter.
"When you're talking about wind gusts south of the Twin Cities around 50 MPH, that's going to blow any type of snow," says Shaffer. "So I'm really concerned south of the metro. This is where the Blizzard Warning is, Owatonna pushing toward Mankato, down toward Albert Lea. Those open areas where the wind could hit those gusts of 50 MPH, visibility will be poor all morning past the lunch hour, finally improving later."
Shaffer adds, it's one of those days where if you can hunker down, if you could work from home, do that.
"That would be a good idea. Just stay off the roads. It's not worth it being out there," he says.
So how much snow are we talking about?
"The big, the big question with that is always the storm track," Shaffer adds. "The models keep shifting, bringing it a little farther north, kicking it a little farther south. I still think, 2 to 5 inches is a pretty good bet for a set of uprights if you want to think football. 2 inches would be more likely, say, Maple Grove heading up toward Coon Rapids areas like that. 5 inches more likely from, say, Faribault heading over to Stillwater and Hudson, Wisconsin. And then when you get south of that line, that's where we're going to see the 4 to 8 inches heading down toward Owatonna, Albert Lea stretching over towards Zumbrota, Red Wing. And we could see a town or two, just like that storm earlier this month, that picks up a foot of snow."
Shaffer does say it's a very tricky forecast for the Twin Cities with a very sharp cutoff for the snow. Any shift to the south or north could have major effects on how much snow - and how much disruption - comes with this storm.
One good thing about these spring snows, they don't stick around long.
"41 Thursday with some sunshine, upper 40s on Friday, so a rapid melt and any sun really hammers away at that snow because that sun angle keeps increasing, making it more powerful to melt," Shaffer finishes, with some good news spring lovers.
BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
* WHERE...Blue Earth, Brown, Faribault, Freeborn, Le Sueur, Martin, Nicollet, Rice, Steele, Waseca, Watonwan, and Goodhue Counties.
* WHEN...From 5 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and power lines.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...McLeod, Renville, Sibley, Anoka, Carver, Hennepin, Ramsey, and Redwood Counties.
* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...In Minnesota, Dakota, Scott, and Washington Counties. In Wisconsin, Barron, Rusk, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Pierce, and St. Croix Counties.
* WHEN...From late tonight through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.