We're going to have an early spring. That's according to some groundhog you may have heard of, but is he going to be right? If this week in Minnesota is any indication, Punxsutawney Phil is late to the party.
"I mean look, he's been making his predictions since 1887," says WCCO Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas. "84% of the time he has predicted six more weeks of winter. This time around, he's predicting an early spring. He may have some guidance, access to weather models that we don't have, but I don't know."
Douglas says despite what Punxsutawney Phil is saying, we still have a ways to go before winter actually ends in Minnesota, as most of us know all too well. In the meantime, there's more well above normal temps in the forecast.
Mildest Winter of All-Time in Minnesota?
Right now, that answer is unequivocally "yes" but there's time to make up some ground.
"The first two thirds of meteorological winter behind us, now we're well past the midpoint of winter," says Douglas. "The coldest weather usually comes December, January, February. For the first two months, December and January, we're running about 10 degrees above average in the Twin Cities and much of the state. 7.3 inches of snow."
To put the snow in perspective, Nashville has had more snow than the Twin Cities. That's 900 miles southeast of the Twin Cities. That 55 degree temperature the other day? That's the average high in Atlanta this time of year. Over 1,100 miles away.
"If you look at everything, snow and cold, this is the mildest meteorological winter on record and we have pretty good records going back to the early 1880s," Douglas explains.
That said: "Winter is NOT over"
Just because it is early-February and in the 40s, with 40s and 50s coming into mid-February, does not mean winter is done yet says Douglas.
"Don't write off winter just yet. 17.4 is the least amount of snow. I remember that. I was working at KARE 11. That was back in 1987 and a few years before that, we had had 98.6 inches. Then a couple of winters later, we only had 17.4. So, bottom line, the weather is erratic. Last winter, we had 90.3, third snowiest on record. So far we've had seven. I'm amazed by the extremes. I have been amazed for forty years, and I'm still astonished by what can happen one winter to the next."
Minnesota is certainly the state of weather whiplash. But our El Nino-powered winter of '23-'24 is stuck in neutral.
However, there is some past evidence of El Nino snow droughts that turned into very snowy February-April stretches. As you can see in the tweet below, a backloaded winter snow season would not be unusual.
Another Warm Week on Tap
It's going to be milder than average right through most of next week after a slightly cooler Friday of "only" 41.
"That's only 15 to 20 degrees above average instead of 25 or 30 degrees above average," Douglas says.
The weekend is similar before another shot of April.
"We're well into the 40s over the weekend, couple of days near 50 next week," Douglas predicts. "Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, we could be near 50. Maybe a little rain next Thursday."
That is followed by a small cooldown.
"By mid-February, it's cold enough for snow," Douglas told Vineeta Sawkar on the WCCO Morning News. "We'll be in the 30s for highs, still warmer than average, but potentially chilly enough for some slushy snow."
Of course temps don't mean anything if there's no precipitation.
"I don't see the moisture yet," he adds. "I guess my message to snow lovers, don't write winter off just yet. I think it would be premature to bet on that early spring. I'm sorry Phil. I'm not buying it. Not yet."