It's way too early after just one season, in 99 out of 100 cases, to label anyone a bust, or say that a draft pick was a complete mistake, or say that one NFL team irreversibly screwed up with their crop of new players. However, it can be much easier to tell that this will be the case in some situations than in others.
We can't really say that this is the case for quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, who were selected with back-to-back selections in the 2020 NFL Draft. Of course, the statistics will tell you one story: Tagovailoa had 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, while Herbert had 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
But does this mean that the Dolphins made an undeniable mistake by taking Tagovailoa instead of Herbert with their No. 5 pick? Maybe that will become the case, but we really can't say so at this point.
As sports fans, we're quick to jump to conclusions, and that's half the fun of the most contested sports debates. But we need to remember that some things just take time to play out in full, and overreactions in front offices could lead to even more mistakes being made.
We'll likely be faced with some of these debates in one year's time due to the quantity of quarterbacks who will be picked in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. It's completely feasible that Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones — not necessarily in that order — are all gone after just the first eight or nine picks. Or, if you're of the same thought process as Chris Simms, you might think that someone like Fields could drop to the very bottom of the first round and go No. 32 overall, similarly to how Lamar Jackson fell to the last slot of the 2018 NFL Draft.
By November, will we be criticizing the New York Jets for picking "enter quarterback's name here" as opposed to "enter quarterback's name here"? Or will we be doing that for the San Francisco 49ers, or Atlanta Falcons, or Denver Broncos, or New England Patriots, or... *gasp*...the Jacksonville Jaguars?
Who knows?
Only time will tell, as was the case for these 25 NFL Draft mistakes that teams probably regret more than they're willing to let on.
Yes, there are some obvious slip-ups that you'll notice aren't in here. Where's JaMarcus Russell? He's not on here, because there weren't any other quarterback prospects that year who were likely candidates at No. 1 overall and who far outperformed Russell. It was just a bad year to draft a quarterback at the top of the draft.
Instead, the 25 draft gaffes (draffes?) below occurred when a team chose one player at a certain position over another at the same position who came off the board a little bit later, and the drastic difference in production is just too much to ignore.
All statistics and draft information retrieved from Pro Football Reference.
Worst of the worst:
Patrick Mahomes and Mitch TrubiskyDylan Buell - Getty Images1.) Lions select wide receiver Charles Rogers (No. 2) over wide receiver Andre Johnson (No. 3) in 2003 NFL Draft
You can't blame the Detroit Lions for selecting Rogers, seeing as he absolutely tore up the Big Ten with two seasons of 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. He was as talented as any player on the draft board, and seeing as the 2002 Lions didn't have a receiver exceed 600 yards, Rogers looked to be a perfect fit.
But whereas he only appeared in 15 games over three seasons for the Lions, with unfortunate injuries and off-field issues cutting his career short, Johnson became one of the greatest wide receivers of this generation. He finished his career with seven Pro Bowls, two first-team All-Pro selections and the 11th-most receptions and receiving yards in league history.
Rogers passed away in 2019 from liver failure, and former Lions general manager Matt Millen said that he will always remember Rogers as "a great kid with a good heart with a lot of skills, that mismanaged some things."
2.) Bears select quarterback Mitch Trubisky (No. 2) over quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (No. 10) and Deshaun Watson (No. 12) in 2017 NFL Draft
The Chicago Bears went with the quarterback who was widely considered the top signal-caller of the draft class, and that was clearly the position they were gunning to address. But they sacrificed a decent amount in order to get up to the No. 2 overall pick, and they ultimately took a guy who had his fair share of question marks.
It's not like Mahomes and Watson didn't also have question marks — and, now, Watson's career may be in jeopardy depending on the outcome of his current situation — but in hindsight, this one is just painful for the Bears fan base to stomach. Trubisky is now the backup for the Buffalo Bills and their star quarterback, who is a part of our next mistake on the list.
3.) Jets select quarterback Sam Darnold (No. 3) over quarterback Josh Allen (No. 7) in 2018 NFL Draft
Darnold was a legitimate candidate to go No. 1 overall, as was Allen, at least according to analysts like Mel Kiper. Now, Darnold is at the helm of the Carolina Panthers offense for a "take two" of his career. Meanwhile, Allen is a top-tier quarterback with what seems to be perennial MVP potential, and the New York Jets are back to the quarterback drawing board.
Hopefully, Zach Wilson — who seems to be a lock for the Jets — turns out a little better than the Darnold experiment.
4.) Eagles select wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (No. 57) over wide receiver D.K. Metcalf (No. 64) in 2019 NFL Draft
Though the Philadelphia Eagles happen to be the team that gets made out as the biggest offender here, you can see from Metcalf's draft position that there were several other teams that mistakenly passed over him.
The Kansas City Chiefs could have paired Metcalf with Patrick Mahomes, but chose Mecole Hardman (No. 56). The Indianapolis Colts could have given T.Y. Hilton a bulkier counterpart, but chose Parris Campbell (No. 59). The Arizona Cardinals could have had Larry Fitzgerald and D.K. Metcalf catching passes from 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray, thus likely removing the need for their great DeAndre Hopkins trade, but instead went with Andy Isabella (No. 62).
Perhaps Carson Wentz wouldn't have struggled so much with Metcalf in town, as opposed to Arcega-Whiteside and his 14 career catches.
Backfield blunders:
Eric Shelton and Frank GoreJim McIsaac - Getty Images and Dilip Vishwanat - Getty Images5.) Giants select Ron Dayne (No. 11) over Shaun Alexander (No. 19) in 2000 NFL Draft
One of these guys was a three-time Pro Bowler, an MVP, a member of the Hall of Fame All-2000s team and on the cover of Madden. The other wasn't.
Any guesses?
Coincidentally, the one without all those accolades — Dayne — still has the record for the most rushing yards all-time in NCAA Division I history.
6.) Panthers select Eric Shelton (No. 54) over Frank Gore (No. 65) in 2005 NFL Draft
On the one hand, you have a short-lived running back in Shelton, who received a total of eight carries throughout his NFL career. On the other hand, you have someone who received at least eight carries in 219 career regular season games and in nine playoff games.
Who knows — had the Panthers drafted Gore here, they may have held on to him for even longer than the 49ers did, and does that mean they would never have taken Christian McCaffrey? Everything happens for a reason, I guess.
7.) Cowboys select Felix Jones (No. 22) and Pittsburgh Steelers select Rashard Mendenhall (No. 23) over Chris Johnson (No. 24) in 2008 NFL Draft
Speed isn't everything, and it certainly isn't an indicator of definite NFL success. Just take a look at some of these names. But for running backs in the 2008 NFL Draft, speed turned out to be a pretty important factor in determining the career of one of these backs — the one who went latest in the first round.
It's not that Jones and Mendenhall were bad, but neither of them, you know, recorded 2,000 yards in a season or recorded six-straight 1,000-yard seasons out of the gate.
Wrong receiver:
N'Keal Harry and A.J. BrownHarry How - Getty Images and Frederick Breedon - Getty Images8.) Bengals select wide receiver Peter Warrick (No. 4) over Plaxico Burress (No. 8) in 2000 NFL Draft
The first round of the 2000 NFL Draft turned out to be a pretty difficult one in terms of finding generational talents at wide receiver. However, Burress recorded over 1,000 yards receiving in four different seasons and would have given the Bengals much more of an upgrade than Warrick, whose single-season high was 819 receiving yards.
9.) Washington selects wide receiver Taylor Jacobs (No. 44) and Patriots select wide receiver Bethel Johnson (No. 45) over Anquan Boldin (No. 54) in 2003 NFL Draft
In one of many attempts in the quest to find Tom Brady a top-tier wide receiver through the draft, the Patriots had a very good opportunity in 2003. Anquan Boldin and the 14th-most receiving yards of all time were just sitting there, waiting to be selected, but to no avail.
Jacobs and Johnson combined for 990 career receiving yards, a number that Boldin exceeded in seven different seasons.
10.) Bengals select wide receiver Jerome Simpson (No. 46) over DeSean Jackson (No. 49) in 2008 NFL Draft
Simpson has exactly one advantage over Jackson throughout his NFL career: cool flips.
Other than that, Jackson has been the elite deep threat that any team would salivate over, especially with Carson Palmer's arm strength at a young age.
What a fun combo that would have been — though it's hard to get more fun than the eventual Michael Vick-DeSean Jackson tandem that captured Philadelphia's hearts for a brief spell.
11.) Bengals select tight end Jermaine Gresham (No. 21) over Rob Gronkowski (No. 42) in 2010 NFL Draft
Sure, the discrepancy between these two draft selections is far larger than the others on this list. However, these were the first two tight ends off the board, and it seems as though there was a real possibility that Gronkowski was the potential pick for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Coley Harvey, formerly of ESPN, wrote that the Bengals were likely "salivating" as they entered a draft with names like Gresham, Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, but they definitely could have gone with a better choice here.
12.) Jets select wide receiver Stephen Hill (No. 43) over Alshon Jeffery (No. 45) in 2012 NFL Draft
Greg McElroy, who started a game at quarterback for the 2012 Jets, said that he told Mark Sanchez, "if [Alshon Jeffery's] there in the second round and we don't take him, we're nuts."
The Jets, apparently, were nuts.
Hill finished his career in New York after just two seasons and 594 receiving yards. Jeffery, who may not have too much time left, is just shy of 7,000 receiving yards at this point and has both a Pro Bowl and a Super Bowl ring on his resume.
13.) 49ers select tight end Vance McDonald (No. 55) over Travis Kelce (No. 63) in 2013 NFL Draft
The 49ers have more than made up for this one, thanks to one of the greatest draft selections in recent history that would never have happened had Kelce gone to San Francisco in the 2013 NFL Draft.
McDonald was serviceable, but had his best season with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kelce is, potentially, the most dangerous receiving weapon in the entire NFL. But he may not be the best all-around tight end, if only because 49ers 2017 fifth round pick George Kittle can claim that label for himself.
14.) Eagles select wide receiver Jordan Matthews (No. 42) and Seahawks select wide receiver Paul Richardson (No. 45) over Davante Adams (No. 53), Allen Robinson (No. 61) and Jarvis Landry (No. 63) in 2014 NFL Draft
This one's a little bit confusing, but the basic idea is that three elite wide receivers went at the end of the second round, whereas two less-than-stellar pass-catchers were selected earlier.
Matthews' career started out on a bright note in Philadelphia, with 1,869 yards and 16 touchdowns over his first two seasons. However, he struggled to stay healthy and hold onto a job, most recently failing to record a catch in two games with the 49ers in 2020.
Richardson never quite panned out in Seattle, signed a sizable contract with the Washington Football Team, and was released after the 2019 season.
As for the other three names, well, they don't need much explaining.
15.) Patriots select wide receiver N'Keal Harry (No. 32) over Deebo Samuel (No. 36) and A.J. Brown (No. 51) in 2019 NFL Draft
I could also have included D.K. Metcalf in here, but, so as to not sound like a broken record, I went with two other receivers who seem to hold a lot more promise at this point than Harry. He has 415 yards and four touchdowns through two seasons, with no guarantee that he has more time left to make a statement in New England.
Meanwhile, Samuel finished with nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, and Brown has already earned a Pro Bowl selection as one of the game's most explosive targets.
16.) Eagles select wide receiver Jalen Reagor (No. 21) over Justin Jefferson (No. 22) in 2020 NFL Draft
Again, it's too early to say that Reagor won't become a great NFL wide receiver. Philadelphia's quarterback play was anything but reliable last season, and there aren't really any takeaways that can be gleaned from the sample size that was 2020.
What we can say with a high degree of confidence is that Jefferson will be an elite wideout for quite some time, going for 1,400 yards as a rookie and proving the Eagles wrong when they went against nearly every mock draft and big board out there to select Reagor first.
Trouble in the trenches:
Luke Joeckel and Lane JohnsonAl Bello - Getty Images17.) Cardinals selected defensive tackle Wendell Bryant (No. 12) over Albert Haynesworth (No. 15) in 2002 NFL Draft
Bryant's NFL career came to an end after just the 2004 season, due to repeated violations against the league's substance abuse policy, and was never all that effective even when he was on the field.
Haynesworth may best be remembered now as a failed free agent signing by Washington, but he was a dominant defensive presence at one point, picking up two straight Pro Bowls and first-team All-Pro selections for the Tennessee Titans before he moved on.
18.) Saints select defensive tackle Johnathan Sullivan (No. 6) over Kevin Williams (No. 9) in 2003 NFL Draft
Sullivan recorded just 1.5 sacks in his three-year NFL career, all with the Saints, before he was traded for fellow draft mistake Bethel Johnson.
Williams had 10 games where he recorded at least 1.5 sacks, with six Pro Bowls and five first-team All-Pro selections in his dominant career with the Minnesota Vikings.
19.) Bears select defensive end Shea McClellin (No. 19) over Chandler Jones (No. 21) in 2012 NFL Draft
McClellin actually won a Super Bowl... with the Patriots in 2016, though that would be the last season he ended up playing due to injury issues and his release from the Patriots after he was on injured reserve for the entirety of the 2017 season.
Jones, too, won a Super Bowl in New England, though he took another leap when he moved to Arizona and recorded four-straight double-digit sack seasons, including a league-high 17.0 in 2017 and 19.0 in 2019.
20.) Jaguars select tackle Luke Joeckel (No. 2) over Lane Johnson (No. 4) in 2013 NFL Draft
The top of the 2013 draft board wasn't the sexiest in the world — all of the top-five picks were situated on either the offensive or defensive line, with two more guards taken later in the top-10 — but there were definitely studs and duds.
Studs included Eric Fisher (No. 1) and Johnson, both of whom have numerous Pro Bowl appearances.
Duds included Joeckel and Dion Jordan (No. 3), with Joeckel playing in only four seasons with the Jaguars and one more with Seattle before his career was over.
Defensive debacles:
Kevin Johnson and Marcus PetersScott Halleran - Getty Images and Jamie Squire - Getty Images21.) Chargers select linebacker Larry English (No. 16) over Clay Matthews (No. 26) in 2009 NFL Draft
The Green Bay Packers would ultimately cement their defense for some time with selections of B.J. Raji (No. 9) and Clay Matthews in the first round, though Matthews was clearly the gem of the draft.
Six Pro Bowl appearances later, the, then, San Diego Chargers probably wish they had gone with the guy who Ross Tucker said was the "best combo pass rusher-pass defender available" as opposed to English, who had a forgettable NFL career.
22.) Browns select cornerback Justin Gilbert (No. 8) over Kyle Fuller (No. 14) in 2014 NFL Draft
It's never a good thing when your former top-10 pick is traded for a sixth round pick just two years after he was drafted. But that was the case with Gilbert, who probably wasn't even worth a sixth round pick when it was all said and done and played his final game in 2016 before getting suspended.
Fuller, on the other hand, is a two-time Pro Bowler who has played in every regular season game of his NFL career to this point, leading the league in both passes defended and interceptions in his All-Pro 2018 campaign.
23.) Texans select cornerback Kevin Johnson (No. 16) over Marcus Peters (No. 18) in 2015 NFL Draft
Despite having cornerbacks Kareem Jackson, Jonathan Joseph and A.J. Bouye on the roster, the Houston Texans decided to go with Kevin Johnson as an upgrade to their secondary. He got an opportunity to start almost right away, and then saw that role slip from his fingers as he just wasn't all that productive.
The opposite was true of Peters, who led the NFL in interceptions and passes defended as a rookie, was a first-team All-Pro selection in his second year, and has continually been one of the best cornerbacks the league has to offer ever since his debut.
24.) Raiders select cornerback Gareon Conley (No. 24) over Tre'Davious White (No. 27) in 2017 NFL Draft
The Bills have boasted a top-10 defense in recent years, and White's ability to take receivers out of the game is a big part of that. In fact, it's something that the Las Vegas Raiders could really use in their secondary, seeing as they've been among the worst pass defenses in every season since 2017.
Conley was eventually traded in the middle of the 2019 season. He didn't play for the Texans in 2020.
25.) Dolphins select linebacker Charles Harris (No. 22) over T.J. Watt in 2017 NFL Draft
Did watching J.J. Watt teach the Miami Dolphins nothing? Of course, you can't rely on that as your primary reasoning for draft decisions, but it might have been a good rule of thumb in this situation.
Harris was traded to the Falcons for a seventh round pick prior to the 2020 season, showing you just how much value they thought he had.
Alternatively, Watt might be even better than his big bro, picking up two first-team All-Pro nods in the past two seasons and leading the league in both sacks and tackles for loss in 2020.
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