Cincinnati, Ohio (WGR 550) - The Buffalo Bills visit the Cincinnati Bengals in a critical game for both teams on "Sunday Night Football" at Paycor Stadium.
For the Bills to win their second-straight game, here are my three keys, plus notes and stats:
1.) Don’t let Burrow get into rhythm
Through their first four games, the Bengals offense averaged less than 13 points per-contest. Over their last three games, they've averaged over 27 points a game.
That's coincided with quarterback Joe Burrow getting healthier, and getting more into a rhythm with his wide receivers.
Burrow has clearly been a different quarterback over those last three games, throwing eight touchdowns against only two interceptions versus two touchdowns and two picks over the first four games.
Last week, against a very good San Francisco 49ers defense, Burrow threw for 283 yards and completed an incredible 87.5% of his passes to go along with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 43 yards.
Burrow was in a zone and a rhythm, which makes the Bengals very tough to beat when that happens.
The Bills' challenge is to disrupt Burrow and his timing, and don't let him get into the same kind of rhythm.
2.) Keep doing that!
The Bills' offense got back to what many fans wanted to see last week, and it worked out great for them.
Quarterback Josh Allen threw for 324 yards and ran for another 41, accounting for 365 total yards, as well as two touchdown passes and another for himself on the ground.
Five different players had, at least, five catches for, at least, 65 yards. That's only the second time in team history that's happened. They spread the ball around, went up-tempo, and allowed Allen to use his legs.
That would be a great formula to use again to not only attack a Bengals defense that is in the bottom-third of most yardage categories on the season, but also because it’s obviously something the Bills and Allen are comfortable with and do well.
Keep doing what you do well.
3.) Turnovers/red zone
At the risk of sounding too football cliché, this game may very well come down to turnovers and red zone conversions.
The Bengals defense ranks 31st, 30th, and 29th, respectively, in yards per-play allowed overall, rushing, and passing. They’ve given up 7.4 “explosive” plays per-game (10-plus yards rushing or 20-plus yards passing). No other team has given up more than 6.9 of those per-game.
But they are tied for 11th in the NFL red zone defense, and fifth with 13 total takeaways, including 10 interceptions. They are also eighth in the NFL in sacks per-pass attempt.
It's a Bengals defense that isn't afraid to give up some yards, but then buckles down in the red zone, and makes big plays to stop drives.
The Bills are second in the league in red zone offense. They’ll need to continue that type of efficiency, and be very careful not to give the Bengals those big-play opportunities.
On the other side, the Bengals are tied for ninth in scoring touchdowns in red zone offense, while the Bills are sixth in red zone defense.
Cliché, maybe, but also truthful for this one.
NOTES AND STATS:
