In a year filled with and marked by anxiety and divisiveness over issues such as managing through a pandemic, soaring inflation and whether "The Matrix" needed rebooting, at least there is one thing we can all turn to for comfort and enjoyment – the weekly "WGR Schopp and the Bulldog Reverse AFC Power Rankings".
Each week the three of us - myself, Bulldog and Sneaky Joe - have lined up the 16 AFC teams in order of how good we think they are. (Sorry, I know you know how power rankings work.) We’ve laughed, we’ve cried. We’ve listened to Joe on a regular basis describe the Tennessee Titans as mediocre, to Bulldog’s consistent putdowns of the Cleveland Browns, to my downright refusal to ever once consider the Las Vegas Raiders good.
I think the three of us can look back on these calls and stand proudly with them. Boys, we’ve done well.
These teams – Tennessee, Cleveland, Las Vegas – have moved around quite a lot in the middle of the pack. In fact the Browns were in our Top 3 after each of the season’s first three weeks. Likewise, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Baltimore, the Los Angeles Chargers are also teams that have challenged us all season. We’ve struggled to pinpoint their levels.
But at the top and bottom of the AFC, we haven’t wavered too much. And I think in retrospect, with the season drawing to a close, that worked out the correct way.
There’s a famous quote attributed to Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells that “you are what your record says you are”. I believe the point is to tell us that the NFL doesn’t have judging like Olympic gymnastics where a panel tells everybody who wins the medals. Somehow – a reminder that football goes by win-loss records – is considered profound.
You are what your record says you are for purposes of aligning the playoff brackets. Thanks, Coach. Often times of course you really are not what your record says. Happens all the time, every year. Good teams miss out on the breaks of the game, a fumble bounce here and a holding call there, and end up 2-3 games worse than they should be. This works the other way around too, naturally.
Sunday you have the NFL’s best team by point differential (a better metric than wins and losses for measuring a team’s performance) in the Bills, who despite that lofty +163 point advantage are only 9-6, against an Atlanta team that at the league’s fifth-worst point differential (-122) is somehow 7-8. These teams deserve to be 6-7 games apart in the standings, not two. But that’s how it goes.
Would Parcells tell you that the Falcons have some sort of intangible quality that explains their 7-8 record better than luck does, or that their wins have almost exclusively come against the only teams in the league arguably worse than they are? Because, while I’m no Hall of Famer, I wouldn’t.
That’s why “power rankings” are needed. That’s also why betting markets are useful.
In the betting markets the Bills have been a top team all season. Even after losses to Jacksonville and the blowout Colts game, Buffalo has retained some of the league’s top odds to become Super Bowl champion. At present, despite that 9-6 record and likely third-seed-at-best in the playoff lineup, the Bills’ +900 (at BetOnline) ranks second only to Kansas City in the AFC. (Tennessee, at 10-5 with wins over the Bills and Chiefs, sit at +2000.)
In our Reverse AFC Power Rankings, Buffalo has been consistently strong as well. The Bills have come in no lower than fourth at any point this season. It’s happened twice – after Week 11 (the loss to Indianapolis, a third defeat in five games) and after Week 15 (the win over Carolina).
The Bills have held the top spot in our rankings seven times, equal to Kansas City for the most. The Chiefs have been on top each of the last three weeks. The only other teams to reach the top were Baltimore and New England, once each.
There have been many ebbs and flows this year – same as usual except this season, maybe because of the heightened expectations around the Bills, it has seemed more pronounced, the conversations about them more intense. Through Week 5 they sported measurably the league’s best offense and defense. A juggernaut. Then they lost three of five, including the Jags game, and (at least around here) there were doomsayers talking about a relative lack of toughness, or balance, or something else.
Now after Sunday’s win at New England to retake the AFC East lead, despite having to scramble on the offensive line with personnel issues, those concerns appear again to be on the back burner.
Where we are now is for the most part where we were at the beginning. The Chiefs and Bills as the top two AFC favorites. The Titans, no real surprise as the AFC South leaders. Several other interesting AFC teams a tier or so below.
The Reverse AFC Power Rankings, top-six, after Week 1:
1.) Kansas City
2.) Cleveland
3.) Buffalo
4.) Los Angeles Chargers
5.) Baltimore
6.) New England
The Reverse AFC Power Rankings, top-six, after Week 16:
1.) Kansas City
2.) Buffalo
3.) Cincinnati
4.) Indianapolis
5.) New England
6.) Los Angeles Chargers
The Bengals have replaced the Browns as the apparent best team in the AFC North, although their records are only two games apart. The Colts have moved into the top group and the Ravens, with seemingly constant injury stress this year, have moved out.
Not too big a difference, really.
Almost four months of football have us mostly right where we started: the Bills among the top teams in the AFC, like last year, a game or a few breaks away from being atop the conference standings.
Nothing really has been decided. But hey, it’s been fun to talk about.
