Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR Sports Radio 550) - As the number of games add up where the Buffalo Bills offense looks really bad, the percentage chance of them extending their five-year reign over the AFC East continues to drop.
Following a 23-19 setback in Houston against the Texans on Thursday night, the New York Times Playoff Machine gives the Bills a 9% chance of winning the division.
There is some good news, though. The Bills have an 82% chance of still making the playoffs, even though they are an unsightly 3-4 since a 4-0 start to the season.
In a nutshell, the Bills' sixth-straight loss in Houston was all about the NFL's fourth-highest scoring offense being shut down by the league's top scoring defense.
The Texans' pass rush was nearly unstoppable, and it completely disrupted the Bills' passing game. Josh Allen was sacked a career-high eight times. According to Pro Football Focus, Allen was pressured on 28 drop backs.
Most of the sacks and many of the pressures came when Houston only rushed four against the Bills' five-man protection. But there were numerous times where Allen had very little time to try and make a play. It felt like he was scrambling around and running for his life all night.
For Allen's part, there were plays where he did have time to get a first read in and, on occasion, a quick second read. But for whatever reason, he did not throw the ball. There were other throws where there was a wide-open target, but Allen opted for a different player and threw an incompletion.
Just four days after recording a six touchdown day in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Allen did not have any touchdowns against the Texans and was picked off twice. The first interception led to a Texans field goal, and the second sealed the Texans victory.
Once again, the Bills' passing game was unsuccessful throwing downfield. Only four of Allen's completions traveled 10 or more air yards, while 19 of his completions were for five air yards or less.
Wide receivers not named Khalil Shakir combined for just four catches out of nine targets and a grand total of 40 yards. Keon Coleman, the Bills' top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, was a healthy scratch for the second-straight game.
The Bills offense scored a touchdown on their first drive of the night. Over the next nine drives, all Allen and company could manage was a pair of field goals. There were three punts, two interceptions, one fumble and one turnover on downs.
The middle quarters were absolutely hideous. The Bills had five possessions in the second and third quarters, had 25 plays over those five drives and managed only 93 yards.
The Bills defense had some issues in the first half, but played very well in the second half and gave the offense a chance to win the game. Houston had five drives in the second half and totaled a measly 60 yards of offense.
The Texans did get one field goal to go along with four punts.
As for the run defense, after giving up 79 yards on 15 carries in the first half (an average of 5.3 yards per-carry), the Bills held Houston to just 29 yards on 11 rushes in the second half.
Special teams were a mixed bag for the Bills. They did produce an impressive 97-yard kick return touchdown by Ray Davis, but Matt Prater missed an extra point in the first quarter, which kept the Bills from the possibility of a game-tying field goal attempt on their final drive.
The Bills were also called for holding on three different returns.
Bills notes:
- This was the Bills' first Thursday night loss in the Allen era. They were 8-0 heading into this game.
- Allen is 0-4 against the Texans in Houston. The Bills have averaged just 17 points in those games.
- The Bills have nine giveaways over the last three games. They had just six over the first seven games.
- In their seven wins, the Bills averaged 35 points. In their four losses, the Bills average just 16 points.
- The Bills are now 2-3 on the road this season.
The 7-4 Bills will next play in Pittsburgh against the Steelers on Nov. 30, while the 9-2 New England Patriots are in Cincinnati this Sunday to face the Bengals.
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