Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - If things go the Buffalo Bills' way this week against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium, come Sunday night, it will feel like the team has clinched a fifth-straight AFC East title after the ninth week of the season.
I had the Bills pegged to win the division once again this year, but I thought it would go right to the end of the regular season schedule and be a three-team race.
The New York Jets recorded, perhaps, a season-saving win over the Houston Texans on Thursday night, and are now second in the division at 3-6. And the Bills can put the 2-5 Dolphins even further back in the rear view mirror with a squishing of the fish on Sunday.
The Bills enter Week 9 at 6-2, winners of three in-a-row following hideous back-to-back road losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans.
Miami's season took a turn for the worse during their Week 2 matchup against the Bills in Miami. In addition to getting dominated by the Bills in a 31-10 defeat, the Dolphins lost starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to another concussion.
Tagovailoa missed the next four games, three of which the Dolphins lost.
Miami's offense is simply not the same unless Tagovailoa is running it. In the four games played while trying Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle and Tyler Huntley at quarterback, Miami scored a total of 40 points, which is why they are currently the lowest-scoring offense in the NFL.
But Tagovailoa returned last week, which absolutely gives Miami a chance to spring the upset in Orchard Park. Miami lost on a walk-off field goal to the Arizona Cardinals in Tagovailoa's first game back, but the Dolphins also scored a season-high 27 points.
So don't even look at any of Miami's team or individual offensive stats, because they were all severely affected by Tagovailoa's absence.
Miami absolutely has weapons to be concerned about.
Running back De'Von Achane is lightning-quick, and a threat in the passing game too. He is averaging 5.2 yards a touch.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's numbers aren't eye-popping, but again, that is largely a byproduct of Tagovailoa's absence.
Even though Miami is currently three-and-a-half games behind the Bills in the division, the Dolphins have to be thinking about getting a new lease on life in the division race if they can snap an eight-game losing streak in Orchard Park.
The Bills' next three games after Sunday are against the Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, who are currently a combined 15-8. Miami's next three opponents are the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots, who are 7-16.
But a Bills team that seems to be getting into a groove offensively and has overcome plenty of adversity on the defensive side of the ball is ready to deliver a possible knockout punch. The Bills have outscored their opponents, 88-40, over the last three weeks while beating the Jets, Tennessee Titans and Seattle Seahawks.
The passing game, which looked rather ordinary by Josh Allen era standards, has come back to life. Over the last six quarters, Allen is 41-of-56 (73%) for 541 yards and four touchdowns.
The wide receivers have gone from a group that wasn't producing to a room that now looks like it has a legitimate top-three in Khalil Shakir, rookie Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper. In those last six quarters, wide receivers have caught 28 of their 34 targets for 386 yards and a pair of touchdowns. That's an 82% catch rate, and an average of 13.7 yards per-catch.
Shakir is catching everything and anything thrown his way. Coleman made big strides the last two games, and you know Cooper will have a bigger impact as he learns the playbook and builds chemistry with Allen.
The defense Allen will go up against on Sunday has had some issues generating a pass rush and creating turnovers. Miami is without two of its best pass rushers though, as Jaelen Phillips is out for the season with a knee injury, while Bradley Chubb is on the Physically Unable to Perform list.
The Dolphins are 29th in the NFL in sacks per-pass play, and have just nine sacks on the season. No player has more than two to his credit.
That lack of pressure isn't helping the secondary, which has combined for just one interception on 189 pass attempts by opposing quarterbacks. As a team, Miami has just three picks.
As far as special teams, Jason Sanders has been a very reliable kicker, but has had some issues with longer field goal attempts this season. Sanders has hit all six of his attempts under 40 yards, but is just 6-of-10 from 40-plus yards (2-for-4 in the 40-49-yard range, and 4-for-6 from 50 yards and longer).
The Bills need to be ready for Braxton Berrios, who is averaging 14.7 yards on punt returns.
Bonus notes:
- A Bills win would put them at 7-2 for the second time under Sean McDermott (2020).
- McDermott is 14-2 against Miami, including the playoffs.
- McDermott is 5-1 against Miami head coach Mike McDaniel.
- In the first three matchups against McDaniel's offense, the Bills gave up an average of 27 points a game. Over the last three meetings, Miami has averaged just 15 points.
- Allen is 12-2 against the Dolphins with 34 passing touchdowns and just seven interceptions.
- Allen is a perfect 7-0 at home against Miami. In those seven games, the Bills have averaged 38 points, and the average margin of victory has been 16 points.
