Selfishly, I hope I'm onto something here.
My antenna has been up all season looking for any sign that Bill Belichick could decide it's time to call it quits as head coach of the New England Patriots, and, more specifically, go run the New York Giants.
I was only half-serious, but yes, I truly thought I could be on to something. My amplifier was turned up to maybe a four on this one.
Now, I'm turned up to a seven.
There are three signals that would point to this weekend's AFC Wild Card Round matchup potentially being the final time Belichick faces the Buffalo Bills as the head coach in New England:
70-years-old
Belichick will turn 70-years-old April 16. There is a century of National Football League sample size that points to that being the age limit for being a head coach.
Of the 511 head coaches in NFL history, only three have coached into their 70s: Pete Carroll, Marv Levy, and George Halas.
That's it.
It's a simple truth. The grueling schedule, working dusk-to-dawn, seven days a week, draft prep, OTAs, minicamp, training camp, 17 regular season games, playoffs, it's all just too much for a 70-year-old man.
Maybe Belichick has it in him to be an outlier, but the odds and history are against it.
Joe Judge
Belichick speaks glowingly of the Giants organization whenever he gets the chance. He already has the ear of Giants owner John Mara, as Belichick's recommendation was a big reason why the team hired New England special teams coordinator Joe Judge to be their head coach two years ago.
After two seasons, the Giants have every reason to fire Judge. He's 10-23, and has had multiple run-ins with players, including forcing one player to just outright retire instead of play for him before the 2021 season.
The New York Post reported this week that Giants players want Judge out as coach.
Judge did a horrible job hiring someone to run his offense, bringing in former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett, and then replacing him with former Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens, who called a quarterback sneak on 3rd-and-9 during the second quarter in Week 18!
So, why are the Giants keeping Judge, even if it's just for now?
This could just be the Giants wanting any general manager they hire to have influence on who the coach is, but it could also be ownership not wanting to part with a coach that Belichick would want, should he come over.
And Belichick loves Joe Judge, as he detailed during joint practices with the Giants in August.
"Joe's a good football coach. Period," Belichick said. "All the things that a good coach needs to do, Joe does. And he did a great job here for me in a number of different capacities. Most importantly, special teams, but he had a lot of other responsibilities as well.
"When I gave him something to do, he did a good job of it, and so that led to other things. I know he's like a very, just accomplished football coach. He has a good understanding of the game and how to coach it."
To summarize, Belichick loves Judge. The Giants know it. They don't want to fire Bill's guy before attempting to lure him in as their new general manager.
Josh McDaniels and Mac Jones
You have to wonder about McDaniels' role in all of this.
He was going to be the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts in 2018. They were so close to finalizing the deal, that the Colts tweeted out the announcement before putting pen to paper.
Why did McDaniels reverse course and return as the offensive coordinator to New England? It's not much to assume that McDaniels would be the heir to Belichick, and combined with more money, that convinced him to stay.
If I were McDaniels, I would've needed an estimation of when Belichick was going to be done. Three more years? Five more years? 10 more years?
Whatever assurances McDaniels does or doesn't have, he isn't going to wait forever. If leaving the franchise in good hands is important to Belichick, he wouldn't want to test McDaniels' patience too much before he bolts for another head coaching job.
What role could Mac Jones play in Belichick's timeline? ESPN's Seth Wickersham outlined in his book, "It's Better to be Feared" that Belichick wanted to set the Patriots up for the future at quarterback before leaving.
Jones is not my cup of tea. Limited mobility, limited arm strength, limited ceiling.
However, Jones has been accurate, doesn't make mistakes, and has been consistent enough as a rookie for Belichick to feel like he's not leaving the Patriots in quarterback-Siberia before leaving.
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Are the Bills about to face Belichick for the final time? It's absolutely a long shot, but there are enough logical signals for it to be worth considering.
