Buffalo, N.Y. (WGR 550) - Josh Allen has been in the conversation as the NFL's Most Valuable Player since he broke out as one of the league's superstars, but he has yet to actually win the award since his rookie season.
The 27-year-old has come close, finishing second in MVP voting in 2020 - only behind Aaron Rodgers - the finishing third last season behind Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
This season, Allen has not been a part of the MVP conversation, but there's a few good reasons for that.
First, the Buffalo Bills have not won enough games for Allen to get MVP chatter. All of the talk has been centered around "what's wrong with the Bills?", not leaving enough time for Allen accolades.
Second, Allen has a long streak of interceptions - nine games to be exact - and the first look everyone got of Allen this season was when he threw three picks against the New York Jets.
You can't trust MVP voters to look deeper into Allen's supposed turnover problem. I doubt many of them are looking at Pro Football Focus' turnover-worthy throw stats.
Out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Allen has a lower turnover-worthy-play percentage than 26 of them. Lower than Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, etc.
However, despite the turnovers and the record, Allen still has a shot at winning MVP.
Going into Week 15 this Sunday, Allen has the fifth-best MVP odds at +1400, only trailing Dak Prescott, Purdy, Jackson, and Hurts. None of which have minus odds.
The MVP race in 2023 has been wild. No candidate has been the favorite more than three weeks in-a-row. It's been shifting every week.
Why? No one is standing out. The race has been begging for someone to separate from the pack, and no one has done it.
The path for Allen is pretty simple. Win the division and beat Prescott head-to-head. Boom. Allen's the MVP.
The division is likely a requirement if you look back at precedent. No player has won the MVP without winning his division since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Over a decade, and it wasn't even a quarterback.
When Peterson won the MVP, he was coming off a major knee injury and had a historic season, rushing for over 2,000 yards.
The last quarterback to win the MVP on a Wild Card team was Peyton Manning in 2008. Unless 15 years of precedent are lying to us, Allen needs the division.
The Bills are two games behind the Miami Dolphins with four games to play, including a head-to-head matchup in Week 18. The Bills just need to be one game better over the next three weeks, and the final week of the regular season will be for the division.
There is no way a Week 18 game for the AFC East won't be featured on "Sunday Night Football". If Allen goes into Miami, in front of the nation, and has one of his typical performances against the Dolphins, he's the MVP.
To get to that point, the Bills will likely need to beat the Dallas Cowboys.
But that's not the only reason Sunday's game versus Dallas is big for the MVP.
Like the Bills, the Cowboys are at risk of starting the playoffs on the road as a Wild Card team. They have the same 10-3 record as the Eagles, but Philadelphia has a far-easier schedule down the stretch.
Dallas needs this game to keep pace.
If I had an MVP vote right now, my vote would be for Prescott. He's the betting favorite to win it, as he's having his best statistical season with several marquee performances.
If it comes down to a two-horse race at the end, it'll benefit Allen in a big way to have a head-to-head victory.
It's pretty incredible that a season of epic frustration, featuring several losses to bad teams and a fired coordinator, can still see Allen win MVP for the first time, and the Bills maintain their throne in the AFC East.
Both of those accomplishments are still alive with four games to go in the season. It could start or end on Sunday against the Cowboys.
