Orchard Park, N.Y. (WGR 550) - For the second season in-a-row, the Buffalo Bills walk into the playoffs as double-digit favorites in the AFC Wild Card Round against a team onto it's third-string quarterback.
This year, they need to perform much better than they did last year to not risk an embarrassing end to the season.
In the 2022 playoffs, the Bills were 13.5-point favorites over a Miami Dolphins team that was starting Skylar Thompson under center. Due to multiple turnovers and a Miami defensive touchdown, a football game that should've never been close was very much in doubt in the second half.
The Bills trailed by four in the third quarter, and the Dolphins had a chance to win the game on the final drive. However, it ended with a 34-31 Buffalo win, which easily would've been a pathetic end to the season against even a slightly more competent opponent.
How much more competent are the 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers? Hard to say.
The Steelers feel like a team the Bills should walk all over. And they should. A team that every other team in the NFL playoffs wished they were playing to open the postseason.
This is especially true, as Pittsburgh is without superstar pass rusher T.J. Watt. Since drafting Watt, the Steelers are 1-10 without his services. He truly is the key to their entire defense. Without him, everything else crumbles.
On offense, it is third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph, but this is where the Steelers may be more competent than last year's Dolphins with Thompson.
Rudolph has easily been the Steelers' best quarterback this season, albeit in a limited sample size of just three games.
On just 74 attempts this season, Rudolph has three touchdown passes and is averaging 9.7 yards per-attempt. Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky on 431 attempts have combined for 10 touchdowns and 6.2 yards per-attempt.
Rudolph is averaging more than three yards per-attempt and double the touchdown percentage as his teammates.
However, the bright side is Rudolph's production might just be compiling production against a couple of bad defenses. Of Rudolph's 719 pass yards, 564 of them were against the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks.
According to Aaron Schatz's DVOA, the Seattle and Cincinnati defenses rank 23rd and 28th in the NFL, respectively. The Bills rank 12th, and are a top-five unit in the last month or so.
The weather won't be as dramatic as it would've been had the game been played on Sunday. The forecast is calling for temperatures in the teens, and most of the snow will be North of the stadium come Monday.
Conditions shouldn't be an excuse.
If the Bills avoid two things, this game should be a win. Avoid a Josh Allen-turnover fest, and avoid Sean McDermott conservative coaching decisions.
The good news on the latter, McDermott is coming off a game where he showed he knows when to go for it on fourth down, going for it twice in that scenario on the final drive in Miami.
Would he make the same decision versus an opponent like Pittsburgh?
The Allen turnover games have been regular this season. He, of course, has proven more than anyone to be capable of making eight superhuman plays that overcome the turnovers.
But what allowed the Dolphins to stay in the game with the Bills last year in the Wild Card Round? Two Allen interceptions, and a fumble lost that was returned for a touchdown.
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The only way the Steelers win is if they get multiple turnovers off Allen, or they get a big play on special teams.
That's what happened when the Steelers beat the Bills in the home opener in 2021. The Steelers were outgained 371-252, but they won because they blocked a punt and returned for a touchdown.
If the Bills avoid the mistakes, they should cruise.
Don't screw it up, and you're good.
