I have said it way too many times: You don't run isolations for outfielders.
The point is that unlike the NBA, where it is worth it to pay as much as possible for a couple of star players, allocating a massive percentage of your payroll to one player -- particularly a position player -- it is very, very dangerous to implement the same strategy in baseball. It is a reality that Red Sox are staring down when figuring out if Mookie Betts is worth in the neighborhood of $400 million.
Despite what some might suggest -- especially after Lou Merloni's report that Betts had countered the Red Sox offer with an ask of 12 years, $420 million -- there aren't easy answers.
The prevailing opinion once it was surfaced that Betts wanted Mike Trout money was that the wise road for the Red Sox to travel would be to get something for Betts now because you were certainly not going to go to that level. People are afraid of getting nothing for the outfielder and if all hope is lost when it comes to an extension that fear quickly becomes amplified. Fair.
The Red Sox need to start finding the next wave of star players with a Mookie trade accelerating that process (albeit with uncertainty regarding to what level).
But let's not discount what the Red Sox have in Betts because I get the sense people are conveniently forgetting this fact.
Over the past four seasons, Betts has been the straw that has stirred the Red Sox' offense's drink. And he's done so at a level few in baseball could come close to.
Here are the Red Sox records from 2016-19 when Betts scores at least one run:
2019: 60-332018: 68-182017: 52-142016: 66-22
That would add up to 246-87 or a 74 percent winning percentage. In case you were wondering, during the stretch Mike Trout's club is 188-115 in games he has scored at least once, coming in at 62 percent. (And yes, while we could have brought up a myriad of other stats, scoring runs is usually the name of the game.)
In games Betts has missed over that span the Red Sox are just 27-24
In the past four seasons, he has scored the most runs in baseball, created the third-most runs and totaled the fourth-most multi-hit games.
Betts is undeniably one of the best defensive players in the game. He is a good citizen and a quality teammate. He checks off all the boxes. He is without a doubt the kind of foundational player an offense can build around. It is the kind of package that should (and will) make a team entertain meeting the player's asking price.
The problem for the Red Sox is that they probably aren't that team that is equipped to write that check, and it has nothing to do with resources. It has to do with the support system any team needs if such a large percentage of their long-term payroll is going to go to one player.
As three of the general managers of the teams that dished out the largest contracts prior to the 2019 season explained to WEEI.com you need a really healthy farm system in order to sustain success over the course of a 10-year-or-more, $300 million-or-more contract. (To read the analysis from Philadelphia's Matt Klentak, the Angels' Billy Eppler and San Diego's A.J. Preller, click here.)
The Yankees did it with Gerrit Cole this offseason because they had the money and they have successfully turned over their roster and farm system. The Red Sox? Not so much. And with looming extension issues coming up with Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez it's only going to get more uncomfortable.
All things considered, it seems inevitable the Red Sox will trade Mookie Betts. But until then, understand the step back they will be taking when doing such a deal. If you were going to run an isolation for an outfielder, it would be this guy.
