Over the last 15 years, only one NHL team has won three Vezina Trophies: the Boston Bruins, with Tim Thomas in 2009 and 2011 and Tuukka Rask in 2014.
When Jeremy Swayman burst onto the scene at the end of the 2020-21 season, it was hard not to think about the possibility of the 2017 fourth-round pick being the next Bruin in line for the NHL's top goaltending award.
There is plenty of time for the 24-year-old Swayman to potentially develop into a Vezina-caliber goalie, but in the meantime, it's tandem mate and hug partner Linus Ullmark who is putting together a Vezina-worthy season.
After stopping 30 of 31 shots in the Bruins' 3-1 win over the Vegas Golden Knights on Sunday, Ullmark is now 16-1-0 with a .941 save percentage and 1.77 goals-against average. He continues to lead the NHL in all three categories.
This should go without saying, but if you're leading the three triple crown categories, you're a legitimate Vezina candidate. For many, that would make him the leader in the clubhouse.
Of course, there are cases to be made for other goalies. ESPN and The Athletic both posted their most recent awards watch posts on Dec. 1, and they had Ullmark second and fifth, respectively, for the Vezina.
ESPN's awards watch is a poll of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters (the actual Vezina vote is done by general managers, not the PHWA though). Greg Wyshynski notes that Ullmark and Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin had the same amount of first-place votes, but Sorokin was mentioned more by other voters.
The Athletic's is more analytics-based, with the Vezina race determined by Evolving-Hockey's goals saved above expected metric. The four goalies they had ahead of Ullmark were, in order, Sorokin, Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck, Philadelphia's Carter Hart and Arizona's Karel Vejmelka.
However, that was nearly two weeks ago. Ullmark has only strengthened his case in his three starts since then, going 3-0-0 with two wins over Colorado and one over Vegas while stopping 77 of the 79 shots he's faced for a .975 save percentage.
In the process, he has moved up to third in GSAx (14.08 for the season), passing Hart (13.06) and Vejmelka (13.40). Sorokin (19.80) and Hellebuyck (17.35) remain ahead of him. We can safely assume that an updated Athletic ranking would have Ullmark third now.
GSAx is a really good stat. It accounts for a lot of different factors, including both the quantity and quality of shots a goalie faces, which is why Ullmark isn't first despite leading all the traditional stats. The Bruins give up the fifth-fewest shots per game, the second-fewest high-danger chances, and the fewest expected goals. They're a very good defensive team, and it's OK to acknowledge that Ullmark benefits from that.
But GSAx doesn't have to be an end-all, be-all in the Vezina conversation either. For starters, similar to wins above replacement in baseball, there isn't even one universally agreed-upon formula for calculating it. MoneyPuck has a different one than Evolving-Hockey, and theirs spits out a different ranking. Ullmark is still third at 14.50, but now it's Vejmelka (15.80) and Hellebuyck (15.10) ahead of him, with Sorokin (13.80) dropping to fourth.
If you believe that team success and wins should be a factor, then Vejmelka and Hart -- both with losing records on non-playoff teams -- would take a hit. Looking at the more traditional stats for these five candidates, here's what we have:
Ullmark: 16-1-0, .941 save%, 1.77 GAA
Hellebuyck: 14-6-1, .930 save%, 2.33 GAA
Sorokin: 10-9-0, .925 save%, 2.36 GAA
Vejmelka: 8-7-3, .913 save%, 3.07 GAA
Hart: 8-8-6, .909 save%, 2.84 GAA
No matter how you slice it, Ullmark is clearly a serious Vezina candidate right now. A top three, in whatever order, of him, Hellebuyck and Sorokin would be tough to argue against. And if you want to argue Ullmark should be first, there is a strong case to be made.
The Bruins were widely criticized for signing Ullmark to a four-year, $20 million contract last year. As recently as this summer, many of those critics wanted to ship Ullmark out of town to free up cap space and turn the reigns over to Swayman.
Needless to say, those critics are pretty quiet right now. Ullmark is a huge reason the Bruins have the best record in the NHL, and he is increasingly looking like both a great value and a Vezina contender.
