The Bruins' offseason cycle of "depression -> blame Tuukka Rask -> 'I think we could get Sidney Crosby' -> accept that virtually the same team is returning" has blown past the first three stages in record time in the 2021 edition.
But this offseason there's one wrinkle the typical hockey fan is well aware of: the expansion draft!
That's right, on July 21 each NHL franchise, aside from the Golden Knights, must sacrifice one player to the Seattle Kraken. The Bruins could lose Connor Clifton, Jake DeBrusk or a number of key contributors. However, there's a rather sneaky method by which the Bruins could bend the rules of the expansion draft that would enable them to retain more players than the expansion draft rules necessarily allow them to protect.
First, for anyone unfamiliar with how the NHL's expansion draft works, here are the barebones rules and dates you'll need to know for the scenario I'm about to lay out:
· Each team must submit its expansion draft protection list by 5 p.m. ET on July 17. Teams have the option of protecting seven forwards, three defenseman and a goalie OR eight total skaters and a goalie. Teams must also expose at least two forwards, one defenseman and one goalie who qualify for the draft.
· From July 18 to July 21, the Kraken can exclusively interview any restricted free agents (RFAs) or unrestricted free agents (UFAs) left unprotected by their teams.
· Offers made to RFAs cannot be matched by the player's former club.
· If any RFA or UFA is signed during the period from July 18 to July 21, the Kraken cannot select another player from that player's former club.
· First and second-year pros are exempt from being selected by Seattle and do not have to be protected.
· On July 21, Seattle will submit its expansion draft selections to the Central Registry and the NHLPA. The NHL will announce the results that night.
· League wide free agency opens on July 28 at noon.
(Click here for the full list of expansion rules)
The Bruins' free agency situation puts them in a very unique situation going into the expansion draft. If you're wondering if the Bruins need to protect pending free agents, the answer is YES... IF the Bruins want exclusive negotiating rights with that player until free agency opens on July 28.
Due to no-movement clauses, the Bruins HAVE TO protect Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Charlie Coyle. Obviously they will also protect David Pastrnak. On defense, it'll likely be Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo and Matt Grzcelyk protected, leaving the likes of Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon and Jakub Zboril exposed.
Assuming the Bruins use the 7/3/1 expansion protection method, this leaves the team with three more forwards to protect. David Krejci and Taylor Hall both have some sort of no-movement clause, but since they are pending UFAs the Bruins do not have to protect them -- unless they want exclusive negotiating rights until free agency opens. If the Bruins were worried about Krejci and Hall signing elsewhere if they get to the open market, they could protect them.
One would then assume the final forward the Bruins protect if they use the 7/3/1 method is Craig Smith, in theory keeping their top two lines plus Charlie Coyle together.
The Bruins' major issues are, in some sort of order: inconsistent bottom six scoring, defensive depth, and a light prospect pool -- the team really hasn't developed a top-caliber forward since Pastrnak and the ceiling of much of their defensive prospects has been lower than ideal. If the series with the Islanders is any indication, defensive depth should be an area of focus for Don Sweeney this offseason. Losing Clifton, Lauzon or Zboril would take away one depth option on defense. Losing any forward would do the same up front.
Here's where the Bruins can get creative.
Much like how there's no rule preventing teams from bribing the Kraken with draft picks or players to ensure they select a certain player from their rosters, there is no rule preventing a "wink-wink" agreement between a team and a pending free agent. The revelation of this wink-wink agreement could have tampering implications, but only if it's known. Essentially, a trusted UFA could enter the exclusive negotiating window with Seattle, not sign with them, and then just sign back to their original club when free agency opens.
Are David Krejci and Taylor Hall trustworthy enough to do this for the Bruins? Both Krejci and Hall, along with Tuukka Rask, said this week that they aren't going to be seeking top dollar and want to play in Boston. There would be no move more "for the team" than Krejci and Hall allowing themselves to be left unprotected and then ignoring any potential overtures from Seattle and signing back with the Bruins on July 28.
This would open the door for the Bruins to use either expansion protection method:
· Using the 8/1 method, they could protect Marchand, Bergeron, Pastrnak, Coyle, McAvoy, Carlo, Grzcelyk and Clifton. The question here is whether Don Sweeney could convince Seattle GM Ron Francis to take Jake DeBrusk instead of Craig Smith by offering additional compensation. Leaving Craig Smith exposed may not be worth Clifton in the Bruins' eyes.
· Or the Bruins could still use the 7/3/1 method, which would allow them to protect Smith up front and then two other forwards from the group of Jake DeBrusk, Trent Frederic, Nick Ritchie, Curtis Lazar, Chris Wagner, Karson Kuhlman and Ondrej Kase.
The amount of trustworthy UFAs on the Bruins roster opens the door for them to get creative during the upcoming expansion draft. In a fragile offseason that could end with the Bruins' championship window slamming shut or potentially extending for a few years, every option should be on the table for the Bruins.
