The Boston Celtics will officially play the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs following the Hawks’ dominant win over the Miami Heat in Tuesday night’s play-in game. The only time the Hawks trailed was at 2-0, and they built their lead up as high as 24 points.
It comes as a bit of a surprise, but this was the best-case scenario for the Celtics, as Atlanta is a far more favorable matchup for the C’s, who were a perfect 3-0 against the Hawks this season. Boston and Atlanta have met in eight playoff series in their history, with Boston winning the last seven of those matchups.
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With Game 1 set for this Saturday at 3:30 p.m. at TD Garden, here are five early thoughts on the Celtics-Hawks first-round series:
Take advantage of a bad defense
The Hawks had one of the worst defenses in the league this season. When the team hired Quin Snyder to be their new head coach in late February, the hope was he would change things defensively for Atlanta, but there really wasn’t much improvement. The team played in 21 regular-season games after Snyder’s hire, and registered a defensive rating of 118.2, which was good for 24th in the league. In those 21 games, opponents averaged 121.6 points per game, which was 27th in the league over that stretch.
It’s tough to really take anything from Boston’s final meeting with Atlanta this season because it was the final game of the regular season and both teams stayed clear of their rotational players for the most part, but in two prior meetings this season, the Celtics scored 126 and 134 points, both in regulation. In those two games, Boston shot an average of 54.6% from the field and 46.6% from three.
Even better news for the Celtics, Atlanta does not defend the perimeter very well. Since Snyder’s hire, opponents have shot 37.7% from deep against the Hawks, which was good for fifth-best in the league.
Look for Boston to take advantage of this subpar Atlanta defense.
Slow down their offense
If you like scoring, this will be a good series for you. Both Boston and Atlanta were top five this season in points per game, with Boston finishing fourth at 117.9 and Atlanta third at 118.4.
The Hawks like to play quick, as they are one of the fastest-paced teams in the entire league. Unlike Boston, Atlanta is not a good three-point shooting team. They averaged just 10.8 threes per game, which was tied for third-fewest in the league. Atlanta does a great job down low though, averaging 54.3 points in the paint, which was good for seventh-best in the NBA.
Atlanta is going to play quick, so the more Boston can force them to play in the half court the better.
It is worth noting that the Celtics ranked second in total defense this season, and allowed the ninth-fewest points in the paint to opponents.
Control the boards
The Hawks out-rebounded Miami 63-39 in Tuesday night’s play-in victory. The Hawks grabbed 22 offensive rebounds to just six for Miami, which resulted in 26 second-chance points.
This is where Atlanta could give Boston the most trouble. The rebounding battle has been so important to the Celtics this season. The C's are 34-6 when they out-rebound their opponent, and 19-19 when they get out-rebounded.
The Hawks were a top-10 rebounding team this season, averaging 44.4 rebounds per game, including 11.2 on the offensive glass, which was good for ninth-best in the league and resulted in 14.3 second-chance points per game.
In their three meetings this season, Atlanta out-rebounded Boston 143-136.
Win the bench battle
Bench play was a real issue for the Celtics in last year’s postseason run. In last year's playoffs, the Celtics ranked 14th in scoring, 11th in assists and 15th in rebounds. The Celtics should see significant improvement in those departments given what we have seen from the bench this season, but these minutes are going to be important.
Atlanta’s bench can shoot the lights out. They shot 48.8% from the field this season, which was second-best in the NBA, behind just the Bulls who shot 48.9%.
Boston’s bench is going to have to keep pace with Atlanta’s. Obviously Malcolm Brogdon will be the biggest factor in that. The Sixth Man of The Year candidate has led the team in scoring three times this season off the bench, and has the ability to score in bunches.
Keep an eye on Sam Hauser, though. He has had his way against the Hawks this year. In their three games this season, Hauser averaged 17.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.0 assists while finishing with a plus-minus of +48. In those three games, Hauser shot 66.7% from the field and 68% from three. Time will tell how Joe Mazzulla will handle the rotations in the playoffs, but Hauser has a chance to be an important contributor this series.
Robert Williams’ importance
The importance of Robert Williams cannot be overstated for this series, and the entirety of this playoff run.
As mentioned, Atlanta is going to give Boston the most trouble on the glass, and scoring in the paint. Those are two areas that Williams excels at for the Celtics. Williams brings a different dynamic to the Celtics when he is on the floor, and it’s the little things that he does so well that are going to be of such importance to the Celtics.
Prediction:
Celtics in four games.
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