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We’re back with part five of Patriots Depth Projection - an article series here on WEEI.com where I’ll be taking an in-depth look at each of New England’s ten position rooms, naming trade candidates, predicting highs and lows, projecting who makes the team, and grading each group heading into Training Camp.
Here’s a look at the one's we’ve done so far:
Depth projection: Linebackers
Depth projection: Defensive line
Depth projection: Specialists
Depth projection: Offensive line
Today we're previewing New England’s tight ends, a room that may be flying under the radar in Foxborough:
The Rundown:
The Patriots look to have a good thing going at tight end heading into this season. As I wrote last week, not only is Mac Jones’ red zone binky Hunter Henry entering his third year with the club, but they also signed free agent tight end Mike Gesicki to a one-year contract worth upwards of $9 million this past March. ESPN named New England’s tight end room their “X-factor” heading into 2023:
“X factor for 2023: TEs Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. Henry quietly posted a 68 Open Score last season, fourth-best among tight ends and perhaps a sign of increased productivity to come. Gesicki didn't fit in the Mike McDaniel offense in Miami but is still the same player that recorded over 700 yards in 2020 and 2021. The Patriots lack targets at WR, but perhaps the two tight ends will be a productive supporting cast for Jones.”
Outside of their two horses, the room is rounded out by Anthony Firkser, Matt Sokol, Scotty Washington, and UDFA Johnny Lumpkin.
While Henry and Gesicki are known for their receiving skillset, they're lacking in the blocking department. Depending on which way coordinator Bill O’Brien and offensive line coach Adrian Klemm want to set up their scheme, the best way one of the remaining four can make the roster is by standing out as blockers during training camp.
6 rings: Is Dalvin Cook dropping hints to Patriots fans?
Who we’re sleeping on:
Mike Gesicki.
As much hype as there’s been around Gesicki landing in New England, I still don’t think we’ve fully come to realize just how dominant he can be for the Patriots offense this season.
The last time Bill O’Brien was the Patriots offensive coordinator, he created the greatest 1-2 punch at tight end in NFL history. Not only were Rob Gronkowski and his 17 touchdowns prolific, but the second guy on the depth chart, Aaron Hernandez, was wildly impressive as well.
In a “secondary” role to Gronk, the now infamous tight end out of the University of Florida hauled in 79 passes for 910 yards and 7 touchdowns over the campaign, helping lead New England to a Super Bowl appearance. O'Brien was then subsequently hired as Penn State's head football coach, where he recruited none other than tight end Mike Gesicki to become a Nittany Lion.
While the story is cool, O’Brien had already left for the Houston Texans by the time Gesicki got to State College. The two have unfinished business to handle in 2023.
Surprise cut:
Anthony Firkser.
Cutting either Hunter Henry or Mike Gesicki would not only be a surprise, it would be flat-out irresponsible. That’s why my mind goes to Firkser.
It’s not necessarily a “surprise” cut because I don't see the Patriots going with three tight ends this season. However if they do, Firkser becomes the likely choice due to his blocking ability.
During his time with the Falcons in 2023, Firkser registered a 80.3 pass-blocking grade according to Pro Football Focus - good for ninth best among tight ends. If New England wants a blocking presence in the room, he'll have the inside track. Otherwise, he’ll be cut.
Trade candidate:
Hunter Henry.
If there’s one person in the room who could be a trade candidate, it’s Hunter Henry.
Henry is headed into a contract season with the Patriots in 2023 and if they don't plan on either extending him or getting into a bidding war for him next offseason, then now would be the time to get some value for the eighth-year tight end.
If, for whatever reason, Gesicki separates himself as the clear number one tight end and (emphasis on and) a guy like Scotty Washington excels as a pass-catcher during camp, then perhaps the Patriots would consider selling off Henry.
Spoiler alert: it ain't happening.
Full roster projection:
In: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki
Out: Scotty Washington, Anthony Firkser, Matt Sokol, Johnny Lumpkin (R)
Grade heading into 2023:
A-.
I really like where this room is at this season. The only gripe I have is that they're not set up past 2023. Henry and Gesicki are both free agents next off-season. They need to extend one (or both) sooner rather than later.
We’ll be back on Thursday for another edition of the Patriots Depth Projection, breaking down New England’s cornerback room. Keep it here at WEEI.com as we count down the days until Pats camp.
Make sure to follow Mike on Twitter @mikekadlick, and follow @WEEI for the latest up-to-date Patriots and Boston sports news!
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