The Patriots’ (6-7) playoff chances are obviously on life support.
According to election coverage maven-turned-playoff scenario pundit Steve Kornacki’s work on NBC, New England now has a tiny 6-percent chance to make the postseason. And that’s actually up a whole percentage point after the weekend’s action.
Of course that means the likelihood of Bill Belichick’s squad missing out on the tournament for the first time since 2008 is a whopping 94 percent. About the same as the efficacy of the new COVID-19 vaccines that are beginning to plunge into the skin of Americans everywhere, bringing new hope to the at times seemingly hopeless pandemic.
But, we digress, the reality is that the Buffalo Bills (10-3) and Miami Dolphins (8-5) are the only teams still in the running to win the AFC East, snapping the Patriots record 11-year streak atop the division.
The Chiefs (12-1) have already clinched a playoff spot and the AFC West title.
The Steelers (11-2) are in the postseason as well. The Titans, Browns and Colts all already have nine wins.
Basically New England’s longshot hopes are to win out, get help from the Ravens, Dolphins and Raiders and shock the world by stealing the extra No. 7 seed that was added to the postseason mix for this year.
It’s unlikely, at best.
So what are the Patriots really playing for over the final three weeks of the 2020 regular season, beginning with Sunday’s trip to Miami to take on Brian Flores’ upstart Dolphins? Glad you asked.
Make the playoffs – As unlikely as it is that New England gets into the playoffs, it’s still a mathematical possibility. Outsiders may see it as an extreme longshot, but those inside of Gillette Stadium’s football offices and locker room have to approach it as a realistic opportunity. This is, after all, a team that came back from a 28-3 Super Bowl deficit, right? The only scenario in which the Patriots even have a sliver of hope to play more than 16 games this season is to take care of their own business and win out. It won’t be easy, but there is also no definitive reason to believe New England can’t win in Miami, upset the Bills on Monday night in Foxborough a few days after Christmas and then close it all out against the winless, hapless Jets.
That part of the longshot road is actually a bit more feasible than the help that the Patriots would need to get.
Make a point – Some people – hand raised – thought tanking should have been a consideration when the then 2-5 Patriots trailed the Jets by 10 in the fourth quarter in New York in early November. But Adam Gase and Co.
gave that game away and are well on their way to picking Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall this coming April. Many people believe that Belichick would never tank, never lose games with an eye on the long-term success of the franchise. It looks like they are right, even if he has admitted that the Patriots are not as financially invested in winning in 2020 as they have been in the recent past. Still, the best way to prove a point about always playing to win is indeed to win out and finish with a 9-7, winning record for the 20th straight season. Then begin (continue?) the rebuild with a middle-of-the-first-round pick. In recent weeks, Belichick made it clear that getting young players extra reps in a blowout win or giving Jarrett Stidham the chance to show his stuff in a blowout loss wasn’t “really the point.” It’s not quite a soundbite-catchy as the way Herman Edwards once put it, but the point is still to win the game in New England. Belichick has tried to make that clear to anyone who’ll listen. But sometimes the best way to make people listen is actually to show them what you are talking about.
Culture club – Belichick has spent two decades – along with Tom Brady, endless other key players and a bunch of assistant coaches – creating a winning, battling, Do Your Job, No Days Off culture in New England. He clearly plans on sticking with the plan, that culture, through a potentially playoff free season in the first year with Brady having moved on to the Bucs. Even through all the calls for Stidham to start, it’s gotten really hard to imagine Belichick going that route. He and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels have made it clear Cam Newton is the best player they have at the quarterback position and has been all year. FOBB (Friend of Bill Belichick) Mike Lombardi (whose son is Patriots wide receivers coach Mick Lombardi) declared as fact that Stidham hasn’t proven in practice that he deserves the shot to start, even late in a lost season. Twenty years of doing what’s in the best interest of the team, winning at all costs and leading in the way that Belichick has leaves his no other choice but to play to win the final three games, too. As team captain Lawrence Guy has said a number of times of late, the Patriots aren’t “a bunch of quitters.” To ensure that his players believe that not only now but also in the future through a new generational foundation of the team, Belichick has to stay the course he’s plotted for two decades. It is what it is. Culture, in Belichick’s eyes, may be more important than any other aspect of a football program, including talent.
Youth movement – Don’t look now, but there is a pretty healthy dose of young talent making its mark in New England. Rookies Michael Onwenu, Kyle Dugger, Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings are all proving to be potentially be key parts of the future in Foxborough. Second-year players like Damien Harris, Jake Bailey, Chase Winovich, Gunner Olszewski and Jakobi Meyers are doing the same. The final three games of the regular season are a chance for those guys to continue to gain experience and establish their roles for the future, regardless of what kind of roster rebuild Belichick undergoes this offseason with the salary cap space and draft capital he has at his disposal. It might also be a chance for a few other young players, most notably tight ends Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi and cornerback Myles Bryant, to join the hopeful mix of youthful talent. Sometimes teams play young players late in the year just to see what they have, but for the most part many of New England’s young options have already been playing for weeks, with three more chances to prove just what the future might hold.
Finish the job – We all know that 2020 has been crazy year for everyone in virtually every walk of life. We’ve all had to make important decisions and scramble to survive in the weird world we live in. In terms of the NFL and football, that included guys opting out of the 2020 season. But, it also included way more players and coaches committing to the season and everything that went into playing through a pandemic. Those that committed to that task and journey have no reason to let their foot off the gas now, given all they have invested to get to this point. That’s a message that team captain and spokesman Matthew Slater has voiced in recent weeks, even with the challenges of the season growing by the day. “We have to finish what we start,” Slater said recently. “There’s going to be things in life that you start, and you envision them going a certain way, and they don’t go that way. That’s a part of life. You have to find a way to finish what you started, and hopefully at the end of that, you’re a better man, a better woman for it. I’m going to encourage the guys to keep fighting to the finish and represent ourselves in the best way possible.” When Slater speaks, everyone listens. There’s no reason to believe that will change now.
