Hope and optimism should dominate the late-July and early-August days of training camp across the NFL. For now, every team’s a winner with postseason potential, including the Patriots.
But as Kenny Rogers might tell it, every team’s a loser, too.
The reality of the NFL could begin to bite as early as September, especially in New England where Bill Belichick’s team faces the toughest schedule in football beginning with a season opener against the defending NFC champion Eagles.
While there are plenty of pieces in place in Foxborough to build a quality, competitive football team, the Patriots also have plenty of questions to answer heading into the 2023 season.
With those significant and obvious questions in mind, here are the five biggest reasons to believe that New England will miss the playoffs for what would be the second straight season and third time in four years of the post-Tom Brady era.
5 – Limited offensive firepower: In case you hadn’t heard, the Patriots have lacked a No. 1 target in the passing game for the last few years. New England admitted such in its lackluster pursuit of DeAndre Hopkins, who ended up signing with the Titans. The Patriots have a nice array of complementary talent in the passing game, but there just isn’t that one guy you can count on in what Belichick calls “gotta have it” situations. Most high-end offenses and playoff caliber teams have a top weapon to lean on. Bill O’Brien can bring competency to the offense and scheme it up at a high level, but there could be times when the lack of a No. 1 option limits what New England can accomplish.
4 – Mac Jones: Jones was good as a rookie. Dismal as a sophomore. Now, with O’Brien in the mix the expectation is that he’ll be back to showing himself part of the solution and not the problem. It’s a make-or-break year for No. 10. Is he a true franchise QB? Is he the present and the future at the position in Foxborough? Is Jones going to be worthy of a contract extension in the near future? The door has to be left ajar to the reality that Jones may be a good but not good enough NFL quarterback. Mediocrity isn’t a recipe for consistent winning or playoff contention at the most important position in all of sports.
3 – Cornerback: The youth movement is on at cornerback in New England. Jack Jones had a solid rookie season and has obvious upside, assuming he stays on the field and avoids more off-field/legal issues. The hope surrounding first-round rookie Christian Gonzalez is real and warranted. But relying on a rookie to be your No. 1 CB with a schedule that includes guys like A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs in the first two months is a most dangerous game to play. Sure Jonathan Jones is around to step up if needed, as is Jalen Mills. But for the Patriots and their defense to meet high expectations, they are probably going to need Gonzalez and Jones to be at their youthful best. If those guys aren’t ready for the challenge the cornerback spot could be a major problem against some of the NFL’s most elite quarterbacks and opposing offenses.
2 – Offensive tackle: The first way to ruin a game for an offense or a quarterback looking for a bounce back year is via the pass rush.
There is a reason offensive tackles get paid so well in the NFL and have become among the most important positions in the game. In New England the tackle spot is a house of cards, at best. Trent Brown was not good and seemingly not engaged a year ago. Getting the mammoth veteran on the field and playing like his circa-2018 Pro Bowl self is a massive challenge for new offensive line coach Adrian Klemm. Even if Brown is on the field and playing at a high level the right tackle spot will be questioned until it proves to not be a detriment to the attack. The biggest challenge the New England offense faces is solidifying the ends of the line. It will be hard to win at a playoff-worthy level if that doesn’t happen. Oh by the way, Philly heads into the season opener after leading the NFL in sacks a year ago by a wide margin.
1 – Competition: We’ve said it all offseason and will continue to beat the drum that New England could be a much better and more competitive football team in 2023 and still end up in the basement of the AFC East. The reality is that on paper the Patriots have a very difficult schedule loaded with elite QBs. The division may be the toughest in football. Heck, the AFC is loaded as a conference. In the NFC, it might not be hard to talk yourself into the Patriots being a playoff contender. But New England doesn’t play in the NFC. There aren’t a lot of what look like cupcakes on the schedule. Belichick’s team could be solid across the board and still not measure up to its competition. It is what it is.