It’s no secret that Bill Belichick disciples have not fared well as head coaches in the NFL. Josh McDaniels crashed and burned in Denver, Bill O’Brien somehow conned the Texans into keeping him around for almost seven seasons, and Matt Patricia did to the Lions what I’d imagine drinking bleach does to a man.
Joe Judge and Brian Flores are the latest apples of the Belichick coaching tree to try to do it on their own. This Sunday, Flores’ Miami Dolphins roll into Gillette Stadium for his fifth game against his former mentor. The all-time series between Belichick and Flores is tied at two games a piece.
If the past two seasons are any indication, Flores is on his way to being one of the more successful coaches of the Belichick coaching tree. Aside from his savage benching of Ryan Fitzpatrick last season and his snide demeanor with reports the last couple weeks when asked about the Dolphins’ reported pursuit of Deshaun Watson, Flores had been more effective at scheming turnovers than most of the other members of the Belichick coaching tree.
From an analytical standpoint, nothing correlates to wins more than turnover differential (aside from points, duh). Available interception percentage (INT%) data since 2003 shows Belichick’s Patriots with 15 top-half-of-the-league finishes in the category, including six top-five finishes and the number one spot in each of the last two seasons.
The chart below shows how of the Belichick coaching tree, and former Patriot Mike Vrabel, have fared in INT% in each season since 2003 that they were either a head coach or defensive coordinator in the NFL, but NOT under Belichick on the Patriots.
As you can see, Flores is off to a hot start. Despite a last place finish in defensive DVOA in 2019, the Dolphins were 13th in INT% in 2019. After one year under Flores and a jump to 11th in defensive DVOA in 2020, the Dolphins were second to only Belichick’s Patriots in INT% in 2020.
Flores’ Dolphins made the jump from 27th to third in turnover differential from 2019 to 2020, while Belichick’s Patriots fell from first in 2019 to 15th in 2020. With both teams potentially getting better decision-making from the quarterback position in 2021, how both coaches scheme up turnovers on defense will contribute to how each team finishes the season in the turnover differential category, the most impactful stat of all.
Here are three more aspects of the Miami Dolphins to keep an eye on this Sunday...
You Gotta Keep ‘Em Separated
If Tua Tagovailoa makes a leap in year two, his receivers are going to have to help him a lot more than they did last season. Unlike Fitzpatrick, Tagovailoa doesn’t indiscriminately throw the ball in the general area of covered receivers. Receiver separation is going to matter for Tagovailoa's development. In 2020 Miami’s top four pass catchers, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant, and Isaiah Ford, finished last, second-to-last, 50th, and 90th out of 130 eligible pass catchers in separation (although Parker faced the fourth-least amount of cushion at the line of scrimmage).
This offseason saw the Dolphins upgrade their wide receiver room. They used the sixth-overall pick on Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle and signed former Texans receiver Will Fuller V. Fuller finished last season 70th in separation--relative success based on the fact he faced the ninth-least amount of cushion at the line of scrimmage.
Fuller is suspended for the first six weeks of the season, but Waddle’s presence will create an early test for Stephon Gilmore-less Patriots secondary and open up easier matchups for the other Miami pass-catchers.
Everyday I’m Shufflin’
Dolphins left tackle Austin Jackson’s status for Sunday's game is up in the air after he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Monday. Despite being a starting left tackle, Patriots fans should hope the 2020 first round pick is available for Miami on Sunday…
Even if Jackson does play, the Dolphins’ other four spots along the offensive line will be occupied by a player who was not on the team last season or who played a different position last season.
Here was Miami’s starting offensive line in 2020:
Austin Jackson, Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, Solomon Kindley, Jesse Davis
And here are Miami’s projected starting offensive line for 2021:
Austin Jackson, Solomon Kindley, Michael Deiter, Jesse Davis, Robert Hunt
Not great continuity for a team trying to develop a second-year quarterback, but it is a work-in-progress, homegrown unit that could be better when the teams face off again in Week 18.
Should Jackson not be able to suit up for the Dolphins, Miami’s newly acquired left tackle Greg Little could start there. Second-year pro Robert Hunt could also bump to left tackle--paving the way for 2021 second-round pick Liam Eichenberg to make his NFL debut at right tackle. Matt Judon sack total prop bets, anyone?
X Gon’ Give It To Ya
The Dolphins and All-Pro CB Xavien Howard reached an agreement on a restructured contract early in August after Howard requested a trade in July. Howard led the NFL with 10 interceptions and 22 passes defended last season and will undoubtedly create problems for the Patriots’ receivers, who already struggled with creating separation in the preseason. A fully stocked Dolphins secondary could give Mac Jones fits in his first NFL start.
Other Storylines:
-- Kyle Van Noy and Ted Karras revenge games after spending last season in Miami.
-- Former Patriot Jason McCourty will start at free safety for the Dolphins.
-- Former Patriot Eric Rowe will start at strong safety for the Dolphins. Locked On Dolphins’ Kyle Crabbs described Rowe as a “tight end eraser.”
-- Former Patriot Elandon Roberts will start at inside linebacker in Brian Flores’ base 3-4 defense.
-- Miami also signed former Patriot and Matt Patricia-era Lion Justin Coleman over the offseason. Coleman. Coleman is Miami’s top nickel corner, after Howard and Byron Jones on the depth chart.