Star quarterback Deshaun Watson is reportedly unhappy in Houston and wants out. New Texans general manager and former Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio is faced with the unenviable task of potentially having one of his very first moves be a trade of the 25-year-old franchise quarterback.
The Patriots need a quarterback. If Watson really does become available, they should absolutely be interested.
But being interested and being able to actually acquire Watson are two different things. So what kind of trade package could the Patriots put together? And how would it compare to what other suitors can offer?
Well, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell offered a thorough guide in a piece posted Wednesday that ranks all 31 other teams in order from least to most likely to land Watson, while also putting together trade packages for each potential suitor.
Barnwell eliminates 14 teams right off the bat that either already have a franchise quarterback, don’t have enough cap space or draft capital, are in Houston’s division, or that Watson would likely use his no-trade clause to block.
That leaves 17 teams that “could at least plausibly consider a Watson deal.” Of those 17, Barnwell ranks the Patriots as the fifth-most likely to land Watson, which might be higher than New England fans would expect.
Here is the package Barnwell puts together for the Patriots:
Patriots send: 15th overall pick and third-round compensatory selection in 2021 draft, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, CB J.C. Jackson, WR N'Keal Harry
Texans send: 2022 sixth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson, TE Kahale Warring
With several reports indicating the baseline for the Texans would be getting three first-round picks in return, the Patriots being able to get it done with just two would be pretty good. Of course, J.C. Jackson essentially replaces that third first-round pick, and the 25-year-old Pro Bowl-caliber corner might even be the most valuable part of this package, assuming the Texans sign him to an extension.
While it’s a lot to give up, my gut tells me most Patriots fans would leap at the opportunity to make this trade.
It may cost even more, though, if Barnwell’s estimation that four other teams -- the Broncos, 49ers, Panthers and division rival Dolphins -- are in an even better position to get Watson. Interestingly, Barnwell does have the Patriots as slightly more likely than the Jets, as he doesn’t seem to be buying the recent report that New York would be his preferred destination.
Another interesting wrinkle here is that Barnwell has the Patriots involved as a third or fourth team in a couple other deals. One has them landing Kirk Cousins in exchange for two fifth-round picks and Jarrett Stidham, with Watson going to the Vikings as the centerpiece of a three-team deal.
Perhaps the most interesting idea on the whole list, though, at least from a pure entertainment perspective, is a four-team blockbuster Barnwell ranks as the 17th-most likely that would send Watson to the Packers, Aaron Rodgers (whose frustration was clear after the NFC championship game) to the 49ers, Jordan Love to the Texans, and Jimmy Garoppolo to the Patriots. There would be several picks on the move as well, but the Patriots would only give up a fifth-rounder.
You can read the full piece from Barnwell here (ESPN+ subscription required).
