They say if you don’t have hope, you have nothing.
Of course if you only have hope, then you also probably have just about nothing.
The question, is do the Patriots have more than hope to rely on in their rescheduled, Cam Newton-less meeting with all-world QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs Sunday night in Kansas City?
With Newton sidelined after testing positive for COVID-19, veteran journeyman backup Brian Hoyer is expected to start at quarterback for New England. With Newton the Patriots were a pretty big underdog (7 points). With Hoyer New England is as big a ‘dog as they’ve been at any point since the Super Bowl XXXVI upset of the Greatest Show on Turf Rams that jumpstarted the dynasty in Foxborough.
If we’re being honest, there’s a true pandemic of doubt surrounding the Patriots.
Last time Hoyer started an NFL game, for the Colts against the Dolphins last November, he threw three interceptions in a losing effort. Hoyer has actually lost his last 10 NFL starts for the Colts, 49ers and Bears dating back to 2016.
Of course he’s also the guy who had a winning record in both Cleveland and Houston the two seasons before that.
Is Hoyer the type of QB you’d want to face off with Mahomes? Heck no. But he’s not incapable of leading an NFL team to victory, as he’s done in 16 of his 38 NFL starts.
But – and maybe you’ve heard this before – this game and the Patriots chances to pull the massive upset, aren’t just on Hoyer’s average-at-best right arm. Nope, it’s about the coaching, the running game and the defense.
Belichick, Josh McDaniels and many members of New England’s staff have pulled off upsets over the years. That Rams Super Bowl was the origin-story example. The 2016 season opener in Arizona with Tom Brady suspended and Jimmy Garoppolo making his first career start another. As good has the Patriots have been for 20 years there weren’t a lot of chances for upsets, but there have been a few sprinkled through the decades. Belichick has culled together wins from the predicted jaws of defeat before.
Maybe the most impressive from this viewpoint was a 2004 trip to St. Louis in which the Patriots were already without cornerbacks Ty Law and Tyrone Poole before Asante Samuel also left the game with an injury against Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Marshall Faulk and the still-high flying Rams.
Troy Brown stepped up to play both ways, serving as the Patriots No. 3 cornerback and also caught a fake-field goal touchdown pass on the way to the 40-22 victory. That was the day this reporter really reconfigured his doubts of Belichick’s magical coaching abilities.
So, here we are again, doubting Belichick’s Patriots.
Vegas doesn’t see much of a chance for the upset nor does any other sane, honest, right-minded person. Even the most predictable of superfans clearly have doubts.
Surely in Lloyd Christmas fashion, there has to be a chance!
Slim as it may be, there is.
Belichick’s old early-years coaching pal Jerry Glanville once attacked opponents with the run-and-shoot offense. The Hoodie’s approach in Kansas City will probably be more of what we might call a run-and-hope offense with some wrinkle plays mixed in for good measure.
Even with Newton New England was going to have to use its offensive strength – running the ball in a way that’s led to two 200-plus-yard performances on the ground in three games – to move the ball and keep Mahomes on the sideline. The Chiefs are allowing opponents to average 5.3 yards per carry on the ground after all, while the Patriots are averaging 5.1 yards per carry as a team. The math works.
Sure, Newton was a big part of that ground success both with his legs and his reads/play fakes, but sticking with the rushing attack behind the strength of the line is the way to go at Arrowhead even just to slow the game’s scoring down and keep the clock running.
Beyond the running game, the other supposed strength of the Patriots is the Stephon Gilmore-led secondary. Though the group has had its hiccups over the first month, Monday night is a chance at redemption against Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and the seemingly endless speedy weapons that Andy Reid deploys. Remember all that talk this offseason of New England’s “elite” secondary? Time to man up – probably both literally and figuratively – when the team needs it the most.
Finally, even with a solid running game and a standout performance in the secondary the Patriots are going to need what we all need in this crazy 2020. No, not alcohol…hope! Hope that the game plan works as well as it’s drawn up on the fly on two day-of-game, less-than-ideal flights to Missouri. Hope that Mahomes doesn’t have his best day. Hope that maybe a bounce of the ball goes the ol’ New England way.
Run the ball. Play defense. Hope.
That’s it. That’s the game plan.
Can the Patriots beat the Chiefs on Monday night?
Of course they can!
Score prediction: Kansas City 38, New England 13
