Dear Kansas City Chiefs, Football Pundits, NFL Fans and Foxboro Faithful,
I write to you on the matter of the Week 4 Patriots vs. Chiefs game.
By now we all know the Patriots will be without COVID-19 positive QB Cam Newton Monday night. As originally slated the Chiefs were the prohibitive favorites. Now, with journeyman backup Brian Hoyer, the Chiefs are more heavily favored to say the least. Whether or not they should play, given the off-field circumstances, is immaterial here. We’re talking strictly Pats at Chiefs, minus Newton, on the road, with same day travel, a day later than originally scheduled, with daily testing and viral anxiety also likely gnawing at the psyches of the visiting underdog team from New England.
My guess is that most if not all of you believe the Chiefs will win, and win easily.
And I’m here to remind you you’d be gravely mistaken to bet against Bill Belichick.
Call me crazy. Call me delusional. Call me a fanboy out of touch with reality. I’ve been called worse, and recently at that. But these are unprecedented times (drink!), and I’m all about the outrageous when reality has been so intense.
Logic would dictate clearly that the Chiefs are the superior team with both teams at full strength, let alone the Patriots compromised as such. But when has logic ever been a welcome socially distanced party guest to the world of the superfans like me? We get by, make a living and find a way to sleep at night thanks to double IPAs, but also by believing in our team, no matter the odds. Even if they’re as unprecedented and outrageous as this.
I get it. Really, I do. The burgeoning dynasty Chiefs are talented all over the field, especially on offense. Andy Reid is a play-calling whiz with a freakishly talented extension of himself at QB in Patrick Mahomes, now just old enough TO RENT A CAR. Steve Spagnuolo, previous robber of Pats fan dreams, has an above average defense playing well enough to compliment their world class offense. If this game is played by computers, the program might reject the sim at first. If accepted the simulation would probably have the Chiefs win a thousand times out of a hundred. To get more absurdly fired up I might channel my sci-fi fanboy and quote Han Solo here, “Never tell me the odds!”
But it’s the possibility of overcoming odds like this that have helped make Bill Belichick the living legend he is, and keep fans like me coming back for more.
Admittedly, Belichick and the Pats might not have drawn this scenario up, though somewhere a conspiracy theorist grumbles, "Belichick probably engineered this so Newton would be healthy for the playoffs and the Chiefs would underestimate him." Again, I've heard crazier. But let's remember the Subway pitchman lives for the challenge. He loves being counted out, and thrives on the doubt of opponents. At full strength Pats vs. Chiefs was a measuring stick game for New England; how do they stack up against the champs and favorites to repeat? Now, down a star QB, with pandemic concerns aplenty in tow, what kind of effort can he get from the rest of his team? What can OC McDaniels, who's changed the playbook for Newton this season, do with the Ocean State Job Lot version of Tom Brady in Brian Hoyer? All I can say is don’t sleep on The Destroyer...
And what kind of gameplan can Bill and his sons draw up to slow down the BBQ capitol's fleet-footed juggernaut? Some who have read this far might wonder if watching the football equivalent of Drago vs. Creed from Rocky 4 will be worth their time. I'm icing beers and making popcorn for David vs. Goliath in the age of Coronavirus (a soon to be appreciated modern classic).
To reinforce my point, or give me comfort as we whistle on our way to the inebriated inevitable, here are five examples as to why thee of little Foxboro Faith should give the grumpy hooded one and company a fighting chance Monday night:
-- Super Bowl 25: Belichick, then defensive coordinator for the NY Giants, devised a gameplan to slow down the best offense in football, Buffalo's K-Gun, featuring the potent trio of Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed. Belichick's plan was to limit big plays and let Buffalo run and get short gains, grinding the clock out, hoping to hang with them long enough to steal a championship. A wide right later the rest is history. Belichick would later deploy this plan vs. another juggernaut, the 2013 Peyton-led Broncos, in Foxboro. A great night to have Knowshon Moreno on your fantasy team, and the Pats moneyline.
-- Super Bowl 36: Underdogs by more points than they are vs KC, the Patriots took on a familiar opponent, the St Louis Rams, who they'd played tough but lost to, 24-17, back in Week 11 (a classic moral victory). The Rams were "The Greatest Show on Turf", but that night the star was Belichick's defense, which hammered and hassled St. Louis to only 17 points, while young Brady did enough to launch his legacy, and the Pats dynasty (highlight included because you deserve some sports serotonin during times like these).
-- Super Bowl 49: The Seahawks had 2nd and goal from the Patriots 1 yard line with 26 seconds remaining. The game was all but over. Except Seattle ran a play that Belichick and the defense anticipated and had run in practice. Recognizing the formation at the last minute, Belichick, Brandon Browner and Malcolm Butler made improbable history, the kind that further cements Belichick's coaching legacy (I'll include the highlight below just to get you in "Do you believe in miracles?" mode)
-- Game 1, 2016: With Brady suspended the first four games of the season, the Pats went to heavily favored Arizona, with third year QB Jimmy Garoppolo in his first NFL start. The defense was solid, Jimmy G was clutch when it counted (but that TD to Hogan), and luck was on their side all the way to the end. All anyone could ever ask for when against the wall and the odds and more.
-- Game 15, 2018: On the heels of back-to-back defeats on the road vs Miami and Pittsburgh, at 9-5 and with a stalled out offense, Belichick and McDaniels reconfigured the offense on the fly to become more of a power-running team, relying on a stout defense, putting less pressure on Tom Brady to guide the way. All the Pats did was win 5 straight games, including the AFC Championship in Kansas City over Mahomes and Reid, on their way to a sixth Super Bowl trophy.
Belichick is 2-1 vs the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes. Twice Belichick's defense has held them to zero points in a half. ZERO, as in the same number of people outside of me who think the Pats have a chance Monday night. In another half to just three points! Yes, Mahomes and Reid scored 31 points in a half against Belichick's defense, TWICE. That's why these Chiefs reek of Dan Patrick's famous line, "You can't stop them. You can only hope to contain them."
Nobody is looking to stop them. Just looking for enough contain (like Super Bowl 25 or 36), luck (like Game 1 2016), clutch (Super Bowl 49) and power running (2018) to give the Pats a chance.
So that's what I got. If you were able to finish this letter without laughing to unconsciousness, spilling a beverage on your device or asking how to get someone committed, I thank you for your time, good humor and consideration. If you’re laughing at me I get it, and fear not, I shant turn into a murderous Batman villain one day. If you find me more absurd or out of touch with reality than ever I’m as cool with that as I am with picking the Pats. But please, no sympathies necessary. Send your T's & P's to those in real need. Picking the improbable in the Pats is the fun choice Monday night, and I’m trying to enjoy every second I can these days. And as a card-carrying Foxboro Fanatic I'm cool with my loose grasp on reality and firm grasp on a blessed fandom.
Enjoy the game in the comfort and safety of your selection of the Chiefs over the Pats. I, with what little credibility I have left, will remind you that humble pie is best served with burnt ends and beans. Should you need me Tuesday morning, you can reach me at ... oh, who are we kidding? With the way that this year’a gone I’ll still be on a bender either way, in a hoodie with the sleeves cut off.
Stay healthy and Go Pats,
Nick "Fitzy" Stevens