1 – Two lines of thought regarding the top of the 2024 NFL Draft seem to have taken hold in New England.
First is the exciting, potential-filled likelihood that the Patriots are targeting a would-be franchise QB with the No. 3 overall pick. For many, it seems like the smart and necessary if still risky plan of attack. It’s a hopeful thought after a very much hopeless 2023 season that ended the Bill Belichick era and left the Jerod Mayo-led collaborative to clean up the mess.
But there is a second widely-accepted narrative that should be less appealing to residents of Patriot Nation. One that should be questioned. That’s the idea that there won’t or maybe even can’t be three franchise QBs in the first round of this year’s draft class. Most believe that based on history that it’s virtually impossible to think that Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye will all be good NFL quarterbacks.
But why?
What does what happened in the draft a year ago, five years ago or decades ago really have to do with how much talent, potential and work ethic proven college players like Williams, Daniels and Maye bring to their pro careers in 2024? The answer is nothing. Bryce Young has nothing to do with Williams. Mitch Trubisky and Maye aren’t actually tied together, even if their college and jersey numbers might link them for the simple-minded.
Drafting QBs is the most inexact science of the inexact science that is the NFL Draft that’s filled with pitfalls at all positions. It is what it is.
But there is no reason all three potential top-three picks in this year’s draft can’t be good and maybe even great.
History also tells us that Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger went in the first 11 picks in 2004 and went on to have Hall of Fame-caliber careers. And John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino went in the same ridiculous first round in 1983.
Good or bad, the assessment of Williams, Daniels and Maye isn’t about other quarterbacks, other classes or some historic comparison. It’s about what each one of them has accomplished in college, what skill set they bring to the NFL and what their overall makeup is.
Is it likely that all three are future franchise QBs? Nope.
It is possible? Absolutely.
And that’s good news for a Patriots team that may end up with the still-good third QB off the board come April.
2 – From a New England perspective, it’s also important we all recall and realize that just because a team gets the third QB off the board doesn’t mean that guy is the third-best player. We need to look no further than the initial results from last year’s draft as consensus No. 1 prospect Young struggled in Carolina while C.J. Stroud took the league by storm to turn everything around in Houston.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson went after Sam Darnold. Patrick Mahomes went eight picks after Trubisky.
It’s very much realistic to believe that if and when the Patriots take a quarterback at No. 3 overall, likely to be the third QB drafted, that guy could end up being the best at the position in the draft class.
3 – Some fans also seem to be hung up on the history of the No. 3 overall pick, like that somehow will be relevant when Eliot Wolf and Co. are on the collaborative clock in April. Yes, Trey Lance (2021), Sam Darnold (2018) and Blake Bortles are QB cautionary tales at No. 3 overall in the past. But, Matt Ryan (2008) and Steve McNair (1995) paint the pick in a more positive MVP light. Hits or misses, looking at what the No. 3 overall pick has produced historically is really a fruitless, irrelevant endeavor. Again, it’s just about this year’s class and the individual talents available, as fun (or scary!) as the look-backs may be.
4 – The NFL Combine is in a weird spot where it simultaneously seems to be both growing in popularity and losing some of its luster. Plenty of attention and media coverage has been focused on Indy this week, some eating up as much information coming out of Lucas Oil Stadium as they can get. Like everything in the NFL these days, it’s a TV event!
But, with more coaches passing up on the event, its overall value in the process may begin to become questioned. And as more and more players – at least at high-end positions like quarterback and receiver – pick and choose what aspects of the Combine they take part in, it could devalue the event even more. QBs choosing not to throw has been a debate for decades.
But now guys choosing not to take part in the medical process (cough, Williams!) or even be weighed (cough, Daniels!) or talk to the media (cough, Marvin Harrison Jr.!). The Combine is a fun week for draftniks and football fans, but not if the best of talents continue to devalue it with their inconsistent or limited participation.
5 – While most of the New England football world if focused on the expectation that the Patriots will draft a would-be starting quarterback at No. 3 overall, NFL Network fluffed up the rumor that New England might just be in the mix for former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, who revived his career last year in Tampa Bay. The potential connection is obvious given that Wolf and new Patriots executive Alonzo Highsmith were in Cleveland when Mayfield was drafted there. New England OC Alex Van Pelt coached Mayfield in Cleveland and has always been a big fan of his former QB. Mayfield is arguably the only palatable free agent signing that could bring stability and long term upside to the quarterback position in New England. It would be costly. It would also change everything in terms of the approach to the No. 3 pick and the draft as a whole. Is it realistic? Who knows? But it’s fun to think about and an alternative plan of roster-building for Wolf and the Foxborough rest. The preference here is to draft a QB, but if a veteran is in consideration then Mayfield is the only guy who seems to make any long-term sense.
6 – Certainly there is worthy focus on the QB position, but it’s far from the only need in New England this free agency and draft season. After all, Mayo previously highlighted the high-end needs for offensive tackle and wide receivers as well. Wolf talked at the Combine about the “weaponization” of the offense. Anyone watching the work in Indy this week is well aware that there are a lot of intriguing, fast, productive wide receivers in the draft class. Harrison, Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze and are all seen as top-10 prospects. But much like recent years, there will be wide receiver talents taken on the second and even third day of the draft who will have the potential to make immediate and productive impact on NFL offenses. Their speed and skills were on full display this week at the Combine. One guy we’ve fallen in love with from afar is Texas’ Adonai Mitchell, although his 4.34 might just push him too high on draft boards to be a day 2 option in New England.
7 – The Dynasty docu-series on Apple TV has been one of the biggest talkers in Patriot Nation in recent weeks. There are written, radio and TV recaps and reactions at every turn for a series recapping the greatest dynasty in NFL history. From this perspective, The Dynasty certainly has plenty to be proud of and plenty that we can pick apart. There have been omissions and liberties taken with facts and footage. But, overall, I’ve enjoyed watching the first six episodes more than I thought I would. The interviews with various key (and not-so-key) figures from the last two-plus decades in New England have been entertaining and interesting, even if at times slanted and manipulative. The Dynasty was made in a certain way, a way that offered access and material at a potential cost of true objectivity. But, it’s also been very much a worthy watch for any Patriots fan and probably football fan in general. History is written – and produced – by winners, after all.