Last week, the Patriots played on Sunday Night Football hosting Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. This week, the Patriots will travel to Houston to take on the Texans, one of the worst teams in the league.
On the surface, last week was a much bigger game, but specific to the Patriots this one may be bigger. At 1-3 on the year, they cannot fall to 1-4, especially against a team like Houston.
It’s only Week 5, but this is as close to a must-win as a team can get so early in the season.
After beating the Jaguars in Week 1, the Texans have lost their last three games by a combined score of 95-30. They are also coming off a 40-0 loss on the road against the Bills.
Despite the loss against the Bucs, New England is coming off its best performance of the season so we’ll see if it can continue the momentum.
Patriots vs. Texans
Sunday, Oct. 10, 2021
1:00, CBS
Patriots -9, over/under 39.5
3 keys to the game
Improve run defense
With rookie Davis Mills under center, Houston’s game plan will likely be centered around the running game, especially with the Patriots struggling in that area to this point in the season. New England enters allowing 488 yards in the four games, which is 20th in the league. This is a little surprising considering the talent in the front-seven. Given everything that’s transpired, expect this to be a point of emphasis this week.
Protect Mac Jones
Through four games, the rookie quarterback has officially been hit 34 times, which is far too many. This is not sustainable and something that needs to change in a hurry. The offensive line hasn’t performed to its capability through four games and it won’t get any easier this week with a number of starters missing the game. Not only has Jones been hit a lot, the running game hasn’t done much of anything. The Patriots are averaging 3.5 yards per carry, good for 29th in the NFL.
Get passing game going
This should be a get-right game for the Patriots and to this point the pass-catchers, aside from Jakobi Meyers, haven’t really done much of anything. One of the biggest things is the lack of explosive plays. The Patriots are avenging 5.7 net yards per passing attempt, which is 24th in the league. Look for Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry to be heavily involved and hopefully build some momentum as the team enters the meat of its schedule.
Fun Facts
1. Under Bill Belichick, rookie quarterbacks are 6-21 (1-10 since 2014 and Tua Tagovailoa has the only win) and have a 61.6 passer rating against the Patriots.
2. Meyers has totaled at least eight receptions in his last two games. The last Patriots player with at least eight receptions in three straight games was Julian Edelman in 2016.
3. The Patriots have more turnovers, penalties and penalty yards than their opponent through the first four games of a season for the first time since 1992. It's the first time for a Belichick-coached team dating back to Cleveland.
4. The Patriots defense hasn’t forced a turnover in back-to-back games. It's the first time that’s happened since Weeks 16 and 17 of 2019.
5. On Damien Harris’ last 18 carries, he’s averaging 1.2 yards.
Prediction
Patriots 27, Texans 13
Yes, the Patriots have major issues up front, but they are playing the Texans who have lost their last three games by a combined 65 points. The Patriots need to do whatever it takes to win the game. With that being said, we expect the Patriots defense to once again dominate against a rookie quarterback and the Patriots offense, especially the passing game, to have a breakout game. This game should never be in doubt.