With all due respect to Bailey Zappe, something he said on WEEI’s “Merloni, Fauria and Mego” on Tuesday defies belief.
When asked whether the Patriots are running different game plans for him and Mac Jones when they’re in the game — something that seems true to the naked eye — Zappe disputed the notion.
“[Matt Patricia] calls the same game for both of us," he said. "Speaking for me, I always tell Matty P. (to) call whatever he wants and I’ll try to make it work for him. So, that's kind of the mindset we go into every game. Whether it's me or Mac playing, I think it's the same game plan no matter what."
On one hand, Zappe’s almost certainly correct in that both quarterbacks, as well as the entire offense, practice the same game plan every week heading into a game. Both have to be ready to run the same sets of plays that are schemed up to beat each week’s opponent.
But when the two quarterbacks are in the game, the difference between how Matt Patricia calls those plays couldn’t be more noticeable.
Here’s a quick snapshot of where the numbers stand.
In 2022, Mac Jones operates out of the shotgun on 90 percent of his snaps, which is tied for the 10th-highest percentage of all 49 qualified quarterbacks per The 33rd Team. Zappe, meanwhile, is in shotgun much less (81.8 percent; 27th).
Heading into Monday's game, the Patriots used only five blockers (minimal protection) almost 30 percent more of the time for Jones (81.1 percent) than Zappe (51.7 percent) and used heavier protection (seven or more blockers) about 10 percent less for Jones than his rookie counterpart. (Having more blockers also means fewer routes to sort through down the field, which might be part of why Zappe looks like he's going through progressions more quickly.)
Then, there’s the fact that Zappe is getting the benefit of far more play-action (22.2 percent of drop backs) than Jones is (10 percent).
Via Pro Football Focus, Jones still leads the league in deep-passing rate (20.4 of his throws go 20-plus yards) and throws 40 percent of his pass longer than 10 yards while Zappe keeps things shorter (9.8 deep-pass rate; 28.3 longer than 10 yards). The second-year quarterback also has the 10th-lowest rate of screen passes in the NFL among quarterbacks with five or more attempts. Zappe has the eighth-highest screen rate in the league (14.1) by contrast.
To sum it up: the Patriots are spreading things out for Jones and asking him to make more reads and longer throws with less protection and help from play-action than they're giving Zappe.
What sounds more efficient to you?
Weirdly enough, the success Jones achieved as a rookie came in a system that looked far more like what Zappe’s running than what the Patriots have asked of Jones in 2022.
Last season, Jones was under center on 28.9 of his snaps and used play-action on 27.1 percent of his attempts, which is an even higher rate than Zappe had.
Interestingly, though Jones did have some issues with turnover-worthy plays on play-action drop backs last year, he had a markedly higher passer rating on play-action throws (101.5) than he did on non-play-action (89.1).
So what gives? Why do the Patriots insist on making everything annoyingly predictable for Jones, which might also have something to do with why his offensive line has struggled to protect him more and things have generally looked less efficient? Why not revert things back a bit to what Jones had success as a rookie while building to the more field-general role in shotgun he showed he could succeed with for three quarters against Baltimore?
Think about it: Zappe’s two best plays of the night against Chicago — his touchdown throw to Jakobi Meyers and the sideline deep ball to DeVante Parker — were both out of under-center play-action, and they both happened in the rookie’s first 10 plays on the field. Jones only got one such look officially on Monday night: a check-down to Damien Harris that got dropped. Another didn’t count because of a penalty on Trent Brown.
It’s starting to feel as if Patricia and the Patriots don’t know how to call plays for Jones and get him going while Zappe is more malleable and does, as he mentioned, whatever he’s told to do.
Maybe it’s Jones having more affinity for some old Josh McDaniels stuff that Patricia doesn’t vibe with as much and can’t teach as well. Perhaps Zappe being so green he doesn’t know any better helps him think less and play faster (albeit with an easier scheme).
Whatever the reason, the Patriots’ inability to get the most out of their best quarterback — one who has shown he can succeed doing literally the same thing Zappe is doing right now — is extremely problematic, and they need to get things figured out before they blow its investment in Jones. If they haven't already, that is.
