Mac Jones might have easily outperformed the rest of the 2021 rookie quarterback class last season, but that apparently doesn't have everyone convinced he can stay on top in Year 2.
As relayed by ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, a poll of multiple NFL executives published on Wednesday suggested Jackonsville's Trevor Lawrence had the best outlook for the upcoming season when accounting for coaching staff, supporting cast, and other factors. Jones, meanwhile, came in second despite outperforming Lawrence and the rest of last year's quarterback draft class to an overwhelming degree in their respective rookie years.
New York's Zach Wilson, Chicago's Justin Fields, San Francisco's Trey Lance, and Houston's Davis Mills all followed in that order.
On one hand, it's understandable to see Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 and a player widely thought of as a can't-miss quarterback prospect, and believe he's in line for a big second year leap. Furthermore, the Jaguars sent Urban Meyer back to wherever he came from and brought in Doug Pederson, who helped mold the good version of Carson Wentz, as well as a slew of pass-catchers (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, for example) to rebuild a very subpar receiving corps.
Still, one AFC scout admitted 2022 is essentially Lawrence's "true rookie year" as he unlearns the madness visited upon him by Meyer. An NFC scout added he "didn't necessarily see a transcendent talent from him" despite the limited options around him and that Lawrence "didn't look as explosive throwing or on the move as I expected."
So what gives? Why is Jones, who led all qualified rookies (which excludes Trey Lance and his 71 pass attempts) in passing yards, touchdowns, QBR, and passer rating, not considered much better off given his strong performance as a rookie?
For some, it's coaching.
"He would be my No. 1 by a lot," an NFL offensive coach added. "… But who's coaching him? Is it Joe Judge potentially calling plays?"
Then, of course, there's the fact that Jones simply doesn't have the mobility, raw arm strength, and playmaking ability of the other five quarterbacks taken before him last season, though he's also not the statue some portray him as.
According to one AFC scout: "[Jones is] not a guy you win with because of him at this level yet. The tight ends will have to produce and the running game. Win with defense, and let him manage the game."
Another offensive coach noted the Patriots "didn't let [Jones] push the ball [down the field] at all" last season, and some numbers dug up by ESPN's Mike Reiss might explain why. As the year progressed, teams dared Jones to throw deep and outside the numbers, and he couldn't take advantage of it, throwing off-target at an above-average rate on throws at least 20 yards downfield and also being a bottom-half-of-the-league quarterback on vertical routes.
But even with all those caveats and struggles in 2021, Jones stood head and shoulders above his peers.
For example, Jones ranked 11th among NFL quarterbacks last season in composite estimated points added per play and completion percentage over expected (EPA+CPOE), which measures quarterback efficiency and value added to their offense. The next highest rookie: Davis Mills at 27th overall among qualified quarterbacks, followed by Fields (28th), Lawrence (29th), and Wilson (31st, last overall).
The story is similar when looking at overall Pro Football Focus grades with Jones ranking 11th and the next highest rookie (Fields this time) coming in at 28th. No other rookies cracked 30th among quarterbacks with a 150 or more pass attempts -- Lawrence was 31st, Wilson was 33rd, and Mills was 35th.
Another analysis of rookie quarterback seasons going back to 2006 has Jones knocking on the door of elite company alongside Justin Herbert's sensational rookie year while the rest of Jones' 2021 counterparts -- Lawrence, Mills, Fields, and Wilson -- all had seasons more aligned with typical rookies who struggle.
The bottom line: Jones is coming into 2022 having produced an NFL season none of the other rookies from last season can touch.
In time, guys like Lawrence and Fields might end up being better than Jones. Those two, in particular, might have the best odds of becoming an elite quarterback at the moment aside from Jones.
But since quarterbacks usually don't magically jump from being bad -- and Lawrence was bad -- to being very good from one year to the next, it's hard to see how Lawrence, Fields, or any of the other higher-upside second-year passers will suddenly overtake Jones in 2022 just because they have new systems, new coaches, or better weapons. Meanwhile, Jones outperformed expectations and (so far at least) looks poised to push the envelope with bigger plays this season.
Until someone outplays Jones or he falls off, the rest of the vaunted 2021 class lines up behind him.
