Let’s get this out of the way for all those in the back – and by back I mean the dark reaches of the cesspool that is Twitter – Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore is still a very good player.
Gilmore, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, is actually arguably the best player on a sub-.500 Patriots team that needs a Christmas miracle if it’s going to go on to a run to the postseason this December.
But Gilmore is also 30 years old. And by all accounts, the aging cornerback has no plans to play out the final year of his existing contract in 2021 that’s set to pay him a $7 million salary after New England essentially gave him a $5 million advanced bump in pay this fall to bridge the gap between his now-dated deal and the highest-paid players at his position.
The five-year, $65 million contract Gilmore signed with the Patriots as a free agent in 2017 is probably the best free agent pact Bill Belichick has ever inked. New England needed a No. 1 cornerback -- uncharacteristically paid market price for such a costly commodity -- and that’s exactly what Gilmore brought to the back end of the Patriots defense. The two-time All-Pro helped the team to a pair of Super Bowls and was a key cog in taking home the Lombardi against the Rams, sealing the win with an interception in the end zone.
But that’s all in the past. History for which he was very well compensated.
Now, his value is based on his current play and future potential.
After becoming the first cornerback since 2009 (Charles Woodson) and just second since 1994 (Deion Sanders) to become DPOY, Gilmore’s play has taken a predictable step back this fall.
His production is down. He has just one interception and two passes defensed after leading the NFL with career highs a year ago in both categories with six and 20, respectively.
His penalties are up. He’s been flagged for pass interference four times and defensive holding twice for a total of six penalties in the eight games he’s played, matching the number he tallied in 16 games a year ago.
He’s dealt with a balky knee that’s cost him, along with a stint on the COVID-19 list, three games and practice time.
And though Gilmore can still hang with most receivers – he certainly held his own in Sunday’s win over DeAndre Hopkins and the Cardinals – he also got bullied and beaten deep by second-year stud D.K. Metcalf in New England’s Week 2 loss in Seattle.
According to MMQB, the Patriots have been floating Gilmore’s name in trade talks dating back to last spring, likely at least partly due to an awareness that his contract was a budding issue. Gilmore’s deal now fails to measure up to those of mid-20s cover men like L.A.’s Jalen Ramsey ($20 million/year), Baltimore’s Marlon Humphrey ($19.5 million/year), Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White ($17.25 million/year) and really a couple of handfuls of others.
“I would say if he wants a new deal, which he probably will after this year, I think he wanted it before this year, but now definitely will after this year, it’s really a question of are the Patriots going to give it or is it going to be someone else? He’s going to get a deal,” NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport told WEEI in October. “I don’t see him getting on the field (in 2021) for what is left on his contract. It’s just a matter of do the Patriots trade him and he gets a new deal with his new team or do the Patriots end up doing it?”
Annnnnnd there’s the rub. It’s not how good Gilmore once was or even is for the here and now. It’s about how good he’ll be in 2021, his age 31 season, and beyond.
That’s the question the Patriots and other NFL teams will have to answer when considering the possibility of giving Gilmore a big-money new contract.
It’s a risky proposition at best, and a fool’s folly at worst. Aside from the quarterback position, signing big contracts with tens of millions of dollars in bonus and guaranteed money to players in their 30s is generally bad business.
Ask the Jets about that $70 million contract they gave future Hall of Famer once-shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis when he left the Patriots and was about to turn 30 back in 2015. How’d that work out for New York?
The simple reality, one that Bill Belichick is likely to live out, is that unless he wants to play out his existing contract the Patriots should move on from Gilmore this offseason. He’s not a value-based part of the Patriots current rebuild or the future in Foxborough.
It’s not personal.
It's certainly not some talk-radio or Twitter hot take.
It may not even be fair.
It’s just business.
As hard as that may be to admit and accept for Gilmore, his fans and even those close to him.
