NFL Draft Day is almost upon us, the coronavirus pandemic be damned. Some time on Thursday evening, Joe Douglas, from his man cave in his New Jersey abode, will digitally transmit his first selection as Jets general manager.
Gang Green is sitting and should stick with the 11th pick in the first round. Douglas can ill afford to dig into his rather bare asset cupboard to move up, and moving down would deprive him of an opportunity to select an impact player at a position of need. (Side note: Despite what you’ve read about him missing VOLUNTARY AND VIRTUAL offseason workouts, All-Pro safety Jamal Adams should absolutely not be traded. I laid out the reasons in a prior column here.)
Douglas must (MUST!!!) choose between the best offensive tackle or the best wide receiver remaining on his board. I don’t care if Auburn interior defensive lineman Derrick Brown inexplicably drops and he’s Douglas’ highest-graded player available. Pass.
As to which of the tackles and receivers will be there at 11, that’s anyone’s guess. Mocks and simulators have been of little help, as there’s no consensus as to which of the top four tackles, if any, can be snatched after the first 10 picks.
The other unknown is how Douglas rates, say, his fourth-best tackle prospect versus his No. 1 receiver. And what about pro readiness? Tackle Mekhi Becton (Louisville), for instance, might not be equipped fundamentally to step in right away to protect quarterback Sam Darnold’s blind side, even if his talent indicates that he could potentially develop into a Pro Bowler. Meanwhile, scouts have deemed receiver Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) as a potential WR1 to start his rookie season. How will that differential be reflected in Douglas’ grades?
My research suggested that, in general, the best wide receivers will make more of an immediate impact on the Jets than these tackles. In addition, it would be a mistake to assume that a legitimate WR1 prospect will be available for the Jets with their 48th overall pick in Round 2, no matter how “deep” the receiver pool supposedly is. In my simulator runs, I’ve been choosing between slot men who won’t be good enough to immediately displace Jamison Crowder, or physical Quincy Enunwa types who used a size advantage to dominate kids. I would expect guys like USC’s Michael Pittman to be long gone.
Finally, as I wrote previously, the Jets still have a fallback option to plug their left tackle hole in Kelvin Beachum, last season’s starter who remains an unsigned free agent.
With that in mind, take a gander at the top of my board:
1) Henry Ruggs III, Alabama WR
I’m well aware that Jeudy and Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb are rated higher by virtually every expert and that Ruggs’ college production lagged well behind both. I’m still sticking with the guy with 25 touchdowns in 100 touches. In fact, coach Nick Saban’s criminal underutilization of Ruggs could mean he won’t be as worn down as the typical Crimson Tide “graduate.” With an unparalleled combination of speed, athleticism and hands, he’ll be Tyreke Hill 2.0, the explosive player the Jets desperately need.
Getty Images You can go back and forth between Lamb and Jeudy, but I went with the more experienced outside receiver. The majority of Jeudy’s snaps last season came from the slot, per ProFootballFocus.com. While neither player saw much press coverage in college, I think Lamb’s slightly better ball skills makes him the more effective prospect for New York.
3) Jerry Jeudy, Alabama WR
No Jets fan should be crying if Douglas picks Jeudy over Lamb in this toss up. Jeudy is the quicker receiver (though Lamb bested him by .02 seconds in the 10-yard shuttle at the NFL Combine) and has faced much stiffer competition. He’ll be a really good pro.
4) Jedrick Wills, Alabama OT
Wills is listed here mainly as a courtesy, since there’s little chance of him falling to 11. The Giants could very well tap him at 4. Still, you never know, and even though he played exclusively at right tackle, most scouts believe he’ll be able to adjust to moving across to the other side of the line. Tua Tagovailoa, a lefty, was Alabama’s QB the last two seasons, which at least gave Wills experience protecting a blind side.
Getty Image Thomas is your prototypical “high-floor, low-ceiling” prospect. He didn’t blow people away on film or at the Combine, but he got the job done against SEC competition. He may not be the second coming of D’Brickashaw Ferguson, but he could be close enough to be worth the pick. Like Ferguson, Thomas should be a true left tackle the Jets can plug in on Day 1 and not worry about for the next 10 years.
6) Tristan Wirfs, Iowa OT
Maybe the most athletically-gifted of all the tackles, Wirfs was another player who didn’t reach the Jets’ slot in the vast majority of mocks and simulations I saw. I have him lower than Thomas because he comes in less developed and played 693 of 855 snaps at right tackle.
7) Mekhi Becton, Louisville OT
The biggest mover up and down among the tackles, Becton comes with red flags, and I’m not talking about his recently reported failed drug test. Scouts believe he got away with poor fundamentals in college because he was so much bigger and more athletic than his competition. In truth, he didn’t always get away with it—he allowed eight pressures across 73 true pass sets in Louisville’s play-action and screen-heavy offense, per PFF. But boy, that size (6-foot 7, 364 pounds) and freakish athleticism will make him intriguing to some team that can afford to view him as a development project. That’s not the Jets.
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