It has been now 33 seasons and counting since the New York Mets were champions of the baseball world, but they do have one advantage over the cross-town rivals that have won five titles since then: nearly three-quarters of their first-round picks between 1987-2016 (28 of 39, or 71.8 percent, to be exact) have reached the Majors, including every single one from 2010-16, and their 2017 pick already spent last year in Double-A.
That said, though, there are some busts sprinkled in, which Jason Keidel examined in his look at the Amazins – Philip Humber, as an example, spent parts of eight years in the Majors but didn’t even reach 1.0 WAR for his career, very disappointing for a No. 3 overall pick.
Sometimes, picks that don’t pan out can still have an impact as trade chips, but some don’t even get that flash in the pan. So, after profiling the Yankees’ biggest blunders of the Brian Cashman era, let’s take a look at five Mets first-round hauls since 1986 whose lack of production can be magnified by the fact that they were taken within a few picks of a future superstar.
2007: Eddie Kunz (No. 42 overall) and Nathan Vineyard (No. 47 overall)Could’ve been: Josh Donaldson (No. 48)
This is, and kudos to Mets scouts for this, the most recent real “oops,” as every player drafted from 2010-16 has at least donned a Mets uniform or been dealt for someone to wear it, and even in 2008, the Mets did hit on Ike Davis before using their other two first-rounders on Reese Havens and Bradley Holt, who at the very least reached Triple-A – remember, on the other side of town, the Yankees had three first-rounders and Aaron Judge is the only major-leaguer, even if the other two were big trade chips.
Kunz, a righty from Oregon State, was a comp pick for losing Roberto Hernandez, and Vineyard, a high-school southpaw from non-wine country in Georgia, was the Mets’ prize for losing Chad Bradford – prize used loosely, as his pro baseball career ended a year later with an 0-5 record and 7.39 ERA in 35 1/3 innings in the low Minors. Kunz at least reached The Show, making four relief appearances in August 2008, but he never again sniffed the Majors, was eventually traded to San Diego (for Allan Dykstra, who never reached MLB as a Met but did have a cup of Joe with the Rays in 2015), and finished his baseball career in Double-A in 2012.
Not great, especially considering the very next pick after Vineyard was Josh Donaldson, a former AL MVP who hit 37 home runs for a division rival just last season. They could’ve also had journeyman reliever Tommy Hunter (No. 54 overall) if a pitcher had to be the play. At least the Mets can know that the No. 29 pick, which they lost to the Giants as compensation for Moises Alou, was also a bust: high school outfielder Wendell Fairley, who never played above Double-A in his five-year career.
1996: Rob Stratton (No. 13 overall)Could’ve been: R.A. Dickey (No. 18)Remember what was said above about players at least having redeeming value as trade chips sometimes? Well, the Mets’ first-round haul was a desert from 1995-97, but at least the last one, 1997 No. 6 overall pick Geoff Goetz, has a claim to fame of being one of the chips in the Mike Piazza trade.
Not so much in ’96, though, when Stratton was selected out of high school and spent seven seasons in the minors before being dealt to Colorado when Jay Payton was sent west. Stratton never made it after that, either, spending the next four years in four different organizations (including a month in 2006 in Triple-A with the Yankees) before ending his pro career in indy ball.
To be fair, the 1996 first round wasn’t a position player fiesta, with only three (Eric Chavez, Mark Kotsay and Travis Lee) making any MLB impact. But, the Mets could’ve had Dickey sooner, or could’ve had Eric Milton, Jake Westbrook, or Gil Meche, all of whom were selected in the early-twenties.
1995: Ryan Jaroncyk (No. 18 overall)Could’ve had: Carlos Beltran (No. 49)
A stretch here for “within a few picks,” but the 1995 Draft isn’t exactly the quarterback class of ’83 past the Top 15 or so, and in the ultimate “drat!” moment that anyone who has ever done a fantasy sports draft can identify with, the selection right before the Mets in ’95 was Toronto, who scooped up a prep pitcher from Colorado named Roy Halladay.
So, the Mets took Jaroncyk, a switch-hitting high school speedster who could play somewhere up the middle. He didn’t play there long, though, because three seasons and 571 underwhelming plate appearances later, he was out of baseball in 1998. He did return for two seasons in the Dodgers organization in 1999-2000, but never got above High-A and was retired at 24.
Again, the rest of the first round in 1995 isn’t exactly a gold mine (the best first-rounder after Halladay was catcher Michael Barrett), but the first pick of Round 2 was Jarrod Washburn, and later in the round, the Royals took Beltran – one selection after the Mets took Brett Herbison, a high school pitcher whose pro resume included seven seasons in the Minors, one in indy ball, and a series of elbow and shoulder injuries that kept him from anything more. He did, at least, play on three championship teams.
1991: Al Shirley (No. 18 overall)Could’ve Been: Aaron Sele (No. 23)
Frank Viola gifted the Mets two picks in 1992, the No. 18 overall choice from Boston for signing him, and the No. 30 pick as a comp pick for the signing itself, and neither panned out, but their actual pick at No. 8 was Preston Wilson, so again, chances with three selections
The year before, though, the Mets spent the No. 18 pick on Shirley, whose less-than-epic career was profiled in Keidel’s busts, as opposed to, say, Sele, or Pokey Reese (No. 20), or any of the six guys selected between 18 and 35 that were functional major-leaguers. They did at least nab Bobby Jones at No. 36 with a comp pick for losing Darryl Strawberry, but they surely whiffed on the guy they took 18 picks earlier who could’ve been the next Strawberry.
1988: Dave Proctor (No. 21 overall)Could’ve Been: Alex Fernandez (No. 24 overall)
We finish with Proctor, the 21st pick in a draft that had a really solid Top 20. Proctor had a solid rise (from eighth-rounder out of HS in ‘86 to No. 21 overall out of JUCO in ’88) and a great season in St. Lucie in 1989 (2.36 ERA in 133 1/3 innings), but an injury cost him 1990 and he was never the same. He split 1991 and 1992 between St. Lucie and Double-A, but was out of baseball in 1993.
The Blue Jays took prep righty Fernandez three picks later, and even though he spurned Toronto for a JUCO stint, he ended up as the No. 4 overall pick in 1990, made his MLB debut right away, and was in his third season in the White Sox rotation when Proctor finished up his career. Other notables taken after Fernandez include future Met Rico Brogna (No. 26) and two-sport star Brian Jordan, who was the last pick of the round (and a supplemental one at that, at No. 30) and ended up with the second-highest career WAR of the bunch, his 32.9 behind only the 56.1 accrued by another former Met: Robin Ventura