According to multiple media reports, the plan most likely to be approved by the NBA Board of Governors this week will not include the Knicks and the other teams near the bottom of the lottery standings. It means the next meaningful NBA event the Knicks are going to be involved in is the NBA Draft.
(There is a chance that the NBA might move free agency prior to the draft as a means to experiment for future seasons but that has not been decided yet.)
The biggest name in this year’s draft class is LaMelo Ball. His brother Lonzo was the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft and his father’s outsized mouth brings all the notoriety, good or bad, any family could want. But it doesn’t mean that Ball’s play hasn’t been noteworthy either.
Should the Knicks draft him? Yes, but not at any cost. With all players, there is good and bad. Here’s a look at what the Knicks will consider when they scout LaMelo Ball.
YES – DRAFT HIM!
In a draft class that is considered flat with few players that have All-NBA upside, Ball is one of the few, along with Anthony Edwards, that does. Ball chose to forego college basketball and play internationally. He joined Australia’s NBL, which is considered a very physical and tough league to excel in for younger players.
He isn’t an elite level athlete, but he is quick and fast enough to get into the paint, and has a very good handle to maintain his dribble until the right play develops in front of him. From a playmaking perspective, he has everything a team would want from a point guard.
The other difference with Ball is his size. He has grown more than half a foot in the past couple of seasons and now stands at 6-foot-8, which helps him see over and around defenders to create passing angles. In terms of his scorers, Ball has shown excellent touch on floaters and in shorter ranges.
Overall, Ball is one of the few players in this draft with an elite skill, and the combination of size, athleticism and innate basketball skill to be a player that has the potential to be the primary facilitator for a good team in the NBA. Will he get there? Who knows? But he has a shot. The Knicks desperately need a player like that so it is a shot worth taking.
PUMP THE BRAKES THERE CHIEF!
Not everything is perfect with LaMelo Ball. His shooting and offensive efficiency is a mess. In his lone 12 game season in Australia (before getting hurt), he shot only 37.5% from the field and 25% from behind the three point line. His 72.3% rate from the free throw line indicates better touch from shorter range and might indicate his long range shot might improve.
Ball’s shooting will be his make or break skill. Analysts are split on how much his shot can improve, but there are many that are bullish given his shot improved late in his single season overseas and his solid touch from shorter ranges. They also consider that he has grown so much in just two years, which can wreak havoc on a player’s mechanics. But there are no guarantees a jump shot will improve.
His poor percentages are also partly due to poor shot selection. Ball had the tendency to fire ill-advised long-distance shots and force shots unnecessarily. He is still a young player, and given his unnatural passing ability and general unselfishness, odds are this would work itself out.
Defensively, Ball flashes the instincts to be a smart help defender, but too often his effort level on that end of the floor is lacking. He loses focus and sometimes looks disinterested. He does have the athleticism and length, however, to play defense, so there is hope there too.
The final red flag is LaMelo’s father, who is outspoken and made a spectacle of himself early in Lonzo Ball’s career in Los Angeles. There are already rumors that he may try to maneuver LaMelo to New York. Despite the distractions that may come along, LaMelo’s talent should be the center of the Knicks decision-making process, not his father’s mouth.
THE MITIGATING FACTOR
If the Knicks do not move up in the lottery and pick anywhere from fifth to eighth, the odds that LaMelo Ball will be there to draft are slim to none. He will likely be a top-three selection based on his upside. Is he worth the Knicks trading up for? It would cost a later pick in the 2020 draft and probably a lightly or unprotected future pick to move up just a few spaces.
Is Ball’s upside worth that price in a flat draft where he has substantial risk attached to him? It’s a question the Knicks will be contemplating for some time, with the draft potentially not taking place until October. Should they trade up? It depends on the price. More times than not, having more picks gives better value. How the Knicks approach that choice will give the first look into how the new front office thinks.
You can follow John on Twitter for everything Knicks, Giants and the world of sports at @Schmeelk. You can also subscribe to my Knicks Podcast, The Bank Shot, here. It is also on Stitcher and most podcast platforms. The most recent episode is with Mike Vorkunov, who helped break the news on the Knicks impending coaching search. Listen here.