The NBA and MLB always seem to have more labor peace, if not a group hug between the brass and the ballers, than other pro leagues, but this time, it's a more savage league that seems to be in corporate lockstep toward a new season.
Indeed, the NFL is a utopia compared to the other two. While NBA players are bickering over merits of saving their season, and MLB players are demanding a fatter piece of the pie from team owners - as well as the right to file a grievance over a prior agreement - the NFL is chatting about dates and schedules and beaming the best show in sports into our living rooms.
Forget sports, really, as the NFL is the highest-rated show on at least four networks, and posted 10 of the 15 most-watched TV programs in 2019, including four of the top five. The only outside invasion into the top five was the Oscars, which scored less than a third of the viewership of the Super Bowl (according to Nielsen).
So, the NFL doesn't need help from its competitors to grow its huge cultural footprint, but it will get a huge bump in ratings if there will be no baseball or basketball played this autumn. Part of this is luck, as COVID-19 landed on America right after the Super Bowl; that gave the NFL swaths of time to prep for the next league year, and its first taste of ratings gold, the 2020 NFL Draft, pulled in 15.6 million viewers across ESPN and NFL Network – a gain of 37% over last year.
Now, imagine the NFL this fall as our stand-alone team sport. Even if some of you are allowed to go back to work - provided your jobs are still there - watching football on Sunday will morph into a religious experience. Football will be the most prolific way to remind the public that the world hasn't ended.
Even at full strength last season, Game 6 of the NBA Finals was the 22nd-most watched TV program, with just under 19 million viewers. Baseball fared slightly better, with Game 7 of the World Series ranking tenth by pulling in just over 23 million viewers. But consider this: the NFC divisional playoff game between the Rams and Cowboys got 10 million more viewers than that, and the AFC title game between the Chiefs and Patriots attracted 30 million more fans.
Now imagine weary sports fans, just getting over the saga of the coronavirus, and just getting used to going to work, and finding a place for their children (a school, hopefully), and having just Sunday to exhale and watch TV and pound their phones for fantasy options or betting apps. Imagine the NFL taking its majority and bulging into a monopoly for one season. Even without fans in the stands – a loss that would cost the league about $5.5 billion, according to Forbes - the NFL would rake in real cash and the ancillary currency that comes with being the lone league still in business.
And even without help, this NFL season would have a tasty buffet of stories. How will the Patriots play without Tom Brady? How will Brady play in Tampa? Is the return of Brady's wingman, Rob Gronkowski, an omen for the rest of the league, or just ornamental? Will Lamar Jackson continue to look like Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl? Will Patrick Mahomes continue his quick ascent toward the title of best quarterback on the planet? Is Aaron Rodgers finished as a serious Super Bowl threat? Will the damn Dallas Cowboys finally pay Dak Prescott?
Notice most of the concerns around the NFL are about on-field drama, not about cash or cancelled games. We just heard that Cowboys star halfback Ezekiel Elliott contracted COVID-19, sure, but are you really worried that an asymptomatic player diagnosed in June will trip up the pro football locomotive?
As other sports quibble about start dates, only one date has remained burned into the sports calendar: September 10, the opening night of the NFL season. Maybe this is all an illusion and the NFL is walking into a logistical and medical minefield. Maybe they won't play a game in September, or October, or at all.
Just don't bet on it.