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There have been a lot of stories and articles written about Mike Miller and how he has helped the Knicks. I wanted to wait until there was a very large sample of games before drawing any conclusions about the interim head coach. Here’s what I see when comparing the team’s numbers in the first 22 games under David Fizdale to the last 25 under Miller.
THE BASICS
The Knicks are a significantly better team, and it is impossible to argue otherwise. Under Miller, the Knicks are 9-16, which would put them on a 29- to 30-win pace over a full 82-game season. Under Fizdale the team was 4-18 and on pace to win 15 games.
The Knicks’ point differential is also significant. Under Miller, the team has only been outscored by an average of 4.5 points per 100 possessions. Under Fizdale, the Knicks were underwater by 10.9 points per 100 possessions. Their net rating has been more than cut in half.
Noah K. Murray/USA TODAY Images THE DEFENSE
The Knicks’ defense looks more consistent under Miller than it did under Fizdale, but the results are only slightly better. The Knicks are allowing 1.3 fewer points per possession under Miller, which is a very small improvement that is probably insignificant when other variables such as strength of schedule are taken into consideration.
Under Fizdale, the team constantly switched its defensive strategies, including frequently using a zone. Miller has used basic drop pick-and-roll coverage, which has improved the team’s rim defense but hurt its 3-point coverage.
THE OFFENSE
This is where the Knicks have seen a huge uptick under Miller. Ironically enough, the team’s shot profile has not improved much. Miller’s squad is actually taking and making fewer 3-point shots and free throws per game. The Knicks are shooting more than 3.5% fewer of their 3s, and two fewer free throws a game.
Yet, somehow, the team is averaging more than five points more per 100 possessions. The Knicks’ 107.2 offensive rating since Miller took over as head coach places them at 22nd in the league. Under Fizdale, the Knicks were ranked 30th at a pathetic 102 points per 100 possessions.
So, how?
The team is taking more 2-pointers (59% vs. 51% of its shots being 2s) and making a higher percentage of them (51.1% vs. 48.7%). It is averaging about five more drives per game, and is shooting better at all levels of the offense. The Knicks are shooting better at the rim, and significantly better outside the restricted area.
Overall, the team is scoring more than three points more per game and shooting more than 4% higher on drives alone. It explains a significant portion of the offensive improvement the Knicks have undergone. Their assist percentage has been largely unchanged.
So, why?
Space. It really seems to be that simple. The Knicks are spreading the floor far more effectively and they are providing their players more room to get to the rim and finish. Whether it is isolations or pick-and-roll plays, it is working. Point guard Elfrid Payton deserves some credit for the increase in drive frequency, but space is the much more universal reason.
JULIUS RANDLE
Much was made about Julius Randle’s improvement a few weeks after Miller took over. His improvement has all but evaporated as more time has passed. His improved field goal percentage (44% to 45%) can be completely explained by improved shooting from 3-point range, which has jumped from 24% to 31%.
His shooting on 2-point shots is actually down a percentage point since Fizdale was fired. Randle shot just 8% on 3-point shots in October, which nearly explains his poor 3-point shooting under Fizdale. Randle still has an effective field goal percentage of only 49.6% under Miller, which is poor. He has shown exactly what he is.
CONCLUSION
The Knicks are now a plain incompetent bad team. Under Fizdale, they were a historically bad team. Miller has done some really simple things to make the Knicks more competitive. It’s progress, but nothing to throw a party over. He has a real chance to get the Knicks above 25 wins before the regular season starts.
The tragic death of Kobe Bryant has brought out a lot of emotional statements and written pieces about why he is so important to so many people. I do not have an emotional connection to Bryant, and constantly found myself rooting against his Lakers. His focus, competitive spirit and “no one is my friend” mentality on the court were things I always enjoyed. He will be missed, along with his daughter and the other seven passengers on board.