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Leon Rose might be the next Knicks president, but with the deal not yet finalized, all signs point to Scott Perry making the calls before Thursday’s trade deadline, with two potential trades being widely reported as options for the Knicks.
The first is far more likely -- trading forward Marcus Morris for a young player, future draft pick or both to either the Lakers or Clippers. The second is a larger deal to acquire guard D’Angelo Russell from the Warriors.
According to multiple reports, the Morris situation is very simple. The Knicks are trying to acquire either power forward Kyle Kuzma from the Lakers or shooting guard Landry Shamet from the Clippers, possibly along with picks and contracts to make the trade work.
A combination of small forward Mo Harkless and Shamet from the Clippers would make the trade work financially, but the Knicks might also want draft compensation in return. The Clippers, according to multiple reports, do not want to include Shamet in any trade. Given Shamet’s high level shooting (40% on six 3-point attempts per game) and that he is on the second year of his rookie contract, he is a very valuable asset. The Knicks might have to settle for just Harkless, a first-round pick and either shooting guard Jerome Robinson or power forward Mfiondu Kabengele.
The Lakers trade is more difficult to formulate. Kuzma is in this third season, with only one more year left before he is due a qualifying offer, and he is making $2 million a year. The Lakers would have to add $11 million to the deal, which is difficult given their roster construction. The Knicks would have to take at least three players back, which would not fit on their roster. A third team might have to be included to make this trade work.
The Clippers package would be more attractive, given Kuzma’s inefficient offensive style and the Clippers’ ability to include a first-round pick. If the Knicks do end up trading Morris, which they should, the Clippers are the most likely landing point with Harkless, a non-Shamet youngster and a pick heading to New York. Scott Perry is handling it wisely, putting the Lakers and Clippers in a position to bid against one another with no other wings like Morris available on the market.
Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Images As for Russell as a player, he is having a virtual repeat of his All-Star season with the Nets in 2018-19 (aside from averaging two more free throws per game, which has boosted his true shooting percentage), but he has only led the Warriors to a 12-40 record.
It isn’t fair to saddle Russell with the Warriors’ record given the dearth of talent around him, but the three years and $90 million left on his deal after this season is a max contract that should be reserved for a true difference-making player. Since the 2017-18 season, Russell’s teams have either played as well or worse with him on the floor versus off.
Russell is undoubtedly good, but can he become a perennial All-Star or All-NBA candidate given his poor defense and lack of elite athleticism? Russell struggles getting to the basket consistently (he is taking only 7% of his shots at the rim this year), doesn’t get to the line frequently (4.4 attempts per game), and more than 40% of his shots come from midrange, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
He is shooting 54% between 16 feet and the 3-point line this year, which might not be sustainable. His previous high from that range before this season was 45.6%. Russell is a high-usage player who is not very efficient, which could put a low ceiling on a team that has him as its primary ball-handler/scorer. His 20.4% assist ratio (the percentage of his possessions that end in an assist) isn’t great for a primary distributor.
Defensively, Russell has been awful this season and has never been a plus on that side of the ball in his NBA career. According to Defensive Real Plus-Minus, Russell is ranked 455th of 479 players this season. He is a huge detriment as a point-of-attack defender.
Russell will help the Knicks win more games, and potentially close in on a 35-plus-win pace. But then what? Russell’s presence would likely take the Knicks out of top-five consideration in the draft for the duration of the contract (right now they are only three games ahead of the Bulls, who have the ninth-worst record in the league), making it unlikely to land a foundational player in the draft without a lot of lottery luck, which the Knicks never get.
A Russell trade might make the team more attractive to free agents in the summer of 2021, but there is no guarantee it will land anyone. The Knicks do not have a good history depending on big-time free agents to sign with them. The trade might get the Knicks more respectable in the short term, but its impact on the team becoming more than that in the long term is very debatable. How will they acquire the other stars they’ll need, especially if young players and draft assets are being moved in a Russell trade?
If the goal is to just miss the playoffs or get wiped out in a first-round series against a No. 1 or No. 2 seed and pick 13th in the draft in 2021, the trade makes sense. Beyond that, there are as many questions as answers.
Adding Russell would also impact the development of the Knicks’ young players. With him and Julius Randle both needing the ball to play their roles, what would RJ Barrett be doing exactly? He is at his best running the pick-and-roll and attacking the rim. That will be tough with two players on the roster with very high usage rates this year of 26.9% (Randle), and 31.5% (Russell).
Last offseason, there was a fair argument to sign Russell to a max contract, even with his flaws, given the Knicks’ blank slate. Trading assets for him making $90 million over the next three seasons is a different story. Reports are the Warriors want the Knicks’ 2020 first-round draft pick, which should be a nonstarter.
With no other suitors for Russell (which should indicate his value on his contract number) around the league, the trade can always be revisited in the offseason if Rose wants to pursue it. They could also pursue a free agent point guard such as Fred VanVleet. There’s no reason to do it now. The Knicks need to stay patient and not get ahead of their plan. Any big moves should be left for the new team president.