The 2020 NBA Draft is tentatively scheduled for October 16, and the Knicks have three picks in this year’s draft. They own their own first round pick, which will land anywhere between first and tenth overall depending on the results of the (tentatively) August 25th NBA Lottery, as well as the Clippers’ first-round pick (from the Marcus Morris trade) and a pick from the Hornets via the Willy Hernangomez trade.
Over the next few months, I’ll be evaluating potential Knicks picks at those different areas of the draft. We’ve already looked at Anthony Edwards, and today, we profile Killian Hayes, who played for Ratiopharm Ulm in the German Basketball League and in the EuroCup last season.
Killian Hayes: Tale of the Tape
Team: Ratiopharm Ulm
Age: Will turn 19 on July 27
Position: Point Guard
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 215 pounds
Wingspan: 6’9”
Stats
33 Starts in 33 Games in 2019-2020 European Basketball
11.6 points per game
2.8 rebounds
5.4 assists
1.5 steals
48.2% FG
87.6% FT
29.4% 3PT
59.1% TS
53.5% EFG
2.7 FTA per game
3.1 3PTA per game
Physical Profile: Hayes is an average NBA-caliber athlete. He can put the ball on the floor and break down defenders, but more often needs a screen to help him gain separation to penetrate to the basket. He can elevate to dunk but is not particularly explosive. He does have good size and length for a point guard. He has potential to be a good NBA defender.
Offense: Hayes is a pass-first point guard, focusing on getting his teammates involved and keeping the ball moving. In a European offense, he ran a lot of pick and rolls and was efficient doing it. He finished in the 62nd percentile in terms of scoring off of running pick and roll (.841 points per possession) sets. If you include his passes when judging the results of his pick and roll possessions, he finished in the 72nd percentile of players, averaging .986 points per possession.
He can make all the passes out of the high screen and roll, including passes to the roll man, lobs at the rim, and passes to open shooters on the strong and weak side baselines and wings. He is adept at passing with his left hand on the move and has good court vision. At times, the older and more savvy defenders in the German league would read some of his passes and force him into turnovers, but it is nothing that should scare NBA teams away from an 18-year-old.
Even though Hayes finished in the 77th percentile as an isolation scorer, he isn’t someone that NBA teams should rely on right away as someone that can create his own offense without a screen. He has enough size and quickness to break down defenders, but it will be more difficult for him in a more athletic NBA. He can score at all three levels of the floor (rim, mid-range, three point line).
Hayes is left-handed and still clearly favors going in that direction. He needs to work on getting to the basket and finishing with his right hand. Going both directions, he will sometimes settle for a floater (which he is effective with) rather than getting all the way to the front of the rim to finish or draw contact and a foul. When he does get to the rim, he finishes well.
Hayes’ jump shot is his biggest question mark. In his 33 games played in Europe in the 2019-2020 season, Hayes shot well inside the arc (60 percent) but struggled making only 29.4 percent of his three-pointers. He has a low release where his elbow can flare a bit to the side. He only made six of his last 32 three-point shots last season. It doesn’t look like a broken shot, but it is one that still needs some refinement for him to become a more consistent shooter.
At this stage, Hayes is far better shooting off the dribble than in catch and shoot situations. He made only 22.2 percent of his catch and shoot jump shots in the half court last year (8 of 36), while he made 38.8 percent of his jumpers off the dribble (33 of 85). His 87.6 percent from the free throw line shows there is room for him to improve his range.
Hayes is clearly working on a step-back jump shot. He flashed it more and more in his last European season, and while it still needs refinement, it is a potential weapon on the next level. At 6’5”, it could be a real weapon for him. He was not afraid to use it when opponents went below screens in pick and roll situations or when big men switched onto him off screens.
Hayes is excellent in transition, ranking in the 84th percentile in transition scoring, according to Synergy. His handle is good enough but needs to improve to allow him to consistently get where he needs to go on the court.
Defense: Hayes puts in the effort, has the size and is a good enough athlete to be a good defender. He applied himself playing overseas and defended fairly well despite his youth and inexperience. He had bouts of losing focus but that is to be expected for an 18-year-old. He did show enough awareness, defensive intelligence and instincts to make people think he can defend in the NBA. He understands how to play off of screens while defending ball handlers in pick and rolls. His lack of elite quickness and athleticism may show up against more athletic point guards.
The Swing Skill: Hayes’ jump shot needs to become more effective if he wants to be a starting caliber NBA point guard. If he gets kick-outs for open threes, he needs to make them. His other skills aren’t good enough to make up for such a large deficiency. His good shooting off the dribble, on long two-pointers (56.3 percent), from the free throw line, and his improvement on three-pointers from his younger years indicates his shot could continue to improve.
High End Outcome: Hayes’ spot-up jump shot becomes consistent, and he develops his step-back to the point it is a high-end weapon. He continues to develop his body and learns how to use his size and strength to consistently attack the rim with improving explosiveness as he gets stronger. He is in the All-Star conversation for his prime years in the NBA.
Low-End Outcome: Hayes is a career back-up because he never becomes a good three-point shooter, nor a high volume, efficient penetrator.
Conclusion: Hayes has the intangibles you are looking for in a NBA player. While it used to be a detriment for European players to not play against NCAA competition, leagues overseas with older professionals often provide a better experience and environment for youngsters to learn how to play the right way. The chance he becomes a star is very slim, but I would also be surprised if he flops and doesn’t become, at worst, an average starting NBA point guard due to his passing skills, frame, and defensive upside.
Prediction: Top 8 pick
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