The MLS Cup Eastern Conference championship pits the two teams that dominated the 2018 regular season. While the Red Bulls recorded a historic season that broke the MLS points record, Atlanta United weren’t far behind – finishing with 69 points compared to the Red Bulls’ record-setting total of 71.
Leg one will be played on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, while Red Bull Arena will host the second leg on Nov. 29.
New York was able to record wins in each of their regular-season matchups against Atlanta. Importantly, the Red Bulls demonstrated their formidable squad depth by delivering a 2-0 win in their most recent outing against Atlanta in late September without leading scorer Bradley Wright-Phillips, who missed the match due to a yellow card accumulation suspension.
Atlanta will be out to prove that New York’s success against them is old history. The playoffs are a different kind of animal and Red Bull supporters need no reminding that the team is an inaugural MLS franchise and is yet to lift the MLS Cup ultimate prize.
There is a different aura that surrounds this team compared to the group that reached the 2008 MLS Cup Final and lost 3-1 to the Columbus Crew. The 2008 edition of the Red Bulls were largely reliant on the goal-scoring exploits of Juan Pablo Angel and Dave van den Bergh.
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Ten years have passed and a lot has changed. Though Wright-Phillips and Daniel Royer supply most of New York’s goals, the Red Bulls excel at pressing and defending as a team. Defender Aaron Long was named 2018 MLS Defender of the Year and midfielder Tyler Adams was named finalist for the U.S. Soccer Male Player of the Year.
Both Adams and Long played the full 90 minutes for the United States’ 1-0 friendly defeat to Italy.
The Red Bulls will have their hands full trying to contain Atlanta’s attacking dynamic duo of Josef Martinez and Miguel Almiron. Each were named to the 2018 MLS Best XI. Martinez’s 31 goals led the MLS. Almiron scored 12 goals and supplied 14 assists.
Long and full back Kemar Lawrence were New York’s two MLS Best XI representatives. So, it will be intriguing to see two of the league’s best defenders go head-to-head with two of the league’s most dangerous attackers. Atlanta will try to hit the Red Bulls on the counter. Martinez may often get the plaudits – but Almiron is the engine that makes this team go.
Atlanta will need to be wary of card accumulation. Discipline will be a must. Five members of The Five Stripes are one yellow card away from suspension: Martinez, Franco Escobar, Hector Villalba, Eric Remedi and Miles Robinson.
Sean Davis is the lone member of the Red Bulls who is a yellow card away from suspension. Cards are wiped clean for the MLS Cup Final.
FiveThirtyEight.com was unable to pick a winner, giving New York and Atlanta an even 50-50 chance of advancing to the MLS Cup Final. I’ve written all along that this could be the Red Bulls’ year and I’m sticking to it. I see the Red Bulls edging The Five Stripes over two legs. Should that happen, Red Bull Arena would host the MLS Cup Final on Dec. 8.