Don’t for a second buy into the anonymous quotes from “league executives” about how teams didn’t want to see the Devils in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
As if any club would prefer a more experienced opponent over the eighth-seeded Devils, who count 10 of their top 13 scorers among those making their first postseason appearances.
It may have seemed that way in the waning days of the regular season, when Tampa Bay and Boston alternated blowing opportunities to secure the Eastern Conference’s top seed. In reality, both teams’ failures had nothing to do with effort. It’s just hockey, where a hot goaltender and a friendly bounce or two can swing any game’s outcome.
Which is why the Lightning, who will host the Devils in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals on Thursday, will indeed be prepared to show the appropriate respect for their green opponent wearing red jerseys.
You can throw the Devils’ 3-0 (including a shootout victory) season series sweep of Tampa Bay out the window. The Lightning are uber dangerous, with superstars Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov and skill across four lines. They boast, in my opinion, the best defenseman in the game in Victor Hedman. They stocked up for a long postseason run by poaching two-time All Star defenseman Ryan McDonagh and first-line wing J.T. Miller from the Rangers at the trade deadline. They are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
Still, I think this is a more favorable matchup for the Devils than the Bruins would have been. The Devils seem to have more trouble with teams like Boston that play on the edge. New Jersey can play at Tampa Bay’s tempo. Hart Trophy candidate Taylor Hall was an absolute beast in the second half, and, though the season production numbers don’t back this up, there are enough gamebreakers on each line to give them a puncher’s chance.
Like many series, this one could be decided by the men between the pipes. Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy has limited playoff experience (7 starts, a 4-5 record) while New Jersey’s Keith Kinkaid has none.
Kinkaid, though, enters the postseason as the much hotter goaltender. Kinkaid went 11-2-1 in the pressure cooker of a playoff race with a 2.41 goals against average and a .928 save percentage since March 1. Vasilevskiy’s stats in the same period are a troublesome 7-5, 3.85, and .887.
Again, all slates are wiped clean when the playoffs begin. It’s a different game, with intense competition for each square inch of ice. Attention to details takes on greater importance.
This is the area where the Devils must mature in a hurry in order to pull off the upset. New Jersey has too often been loose with and without the puck in its own zone, banking on Kinkaid’s extraordinary scrambling ability to clean up messes.
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The defensemen need to get better at what Devils coach John Hynes calls “hard outs” to alleviate the pressure that comes with extensive time in their D-zone. I will be shocked if Damon Severson, despite his plus skating ability (not to mention the six-year, $25 million contract he signed last summer), draws back into the lineup for this very reason.
Another expected Game 1 scratch is left wing Marcus Johansson, who produced 15 points in his last 25 playoff games for Washington the past two seasons. He is back to practicing with the team after recovering from his second concussion of the season (courtesy of Boston villain Brad Marchand), but has not been given the green light to play.
In fact, as noted in a tweet by the Athletic’s Corey Masisak, when you add goalie Cory Schneider to the list of players not expected to see any ice time Thursday, they account for nearly 22 percent of the club’s salary cap expenditures this season.
That’s a testament to the savvy roster overhaul undertaken by general manager Ray Shero and the identity change overseen by coach John Hynes. No sane hockey analyst expected this group of Devils to get here.
Hynes insists that the Devils aren’t playing with “house money”, that they are here to win the series. They certainly have a shot, since recent history suggests that it is not uncommon for eight seeds to advance out of the first round. Nashville went to the Stanley Cup Finals just last season out of the eighth seed. And, if you recall, the last time the Devils were in the playoffs six years ago, they were defeated in the Cup Finals by the Kings, who, you guessed it, were an eight seed.
However, the Lightning have a massive edge in this series at every position outside of the goal. They can get 50 minutes out of their stellar Hedman/Anton Stralman and McDonagh/Dan Girardi defense pairs. The Devils hold their breath any time the Sami Vatanen/Andy Greene duo leaves the ice. While the Devils’ scoring is notoriously top-heavy, Tampa Bay received 98 goals from its second line of Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde.
I think the Devils will make this the most entertaining series of the eight first-round matchups. They should be able to take advantage of some power play opportunities against a weak Lightning penalty kill unit to allow Kinkaid to steal a couple of games.
But that’s where it will all end.
PREDICTION: Lightning in six
For a FAN’s perspective of the Nets, Devils and Jets, follow Steve on Twitter @SteveLichtenst1.