The Jets showed their hand over the weekend when they completed a deal with the Indianapolis Colts to move up to the No. 3 spot in the draft.
Barring further trades by general manager Mike Maccagnan, they are almost certainly going to select a quarterback with the No. 3 pick, and this is a strong class for the position.
There are four quarterbacks who are quite likely to be selected in the top 12 or 15 spots in the draft, and that’s why the Jets were willing to pay such a stiff price for the privilege of moving up from the No. 6 spot to the third.
The top four quarterbacks are Sam Darnold of USC, Josh Rosen of UCLA, Josh Allen of Wyoming and Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma.
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The consensus is that these four are clearly at the top of the class and that all four can be the kind of signal-callers who lead their teams to the playoffs. The consensus does not mean unanimous.
I believe Darnold and Rosen are the top two, followed fairly closely by Allen. For all his success at Oklahoma, I have a difficult time believing Mayfield will become a legitimate winner in the NFL.
Here’s a look at the four candidates, followed by a prediction on which one Maccagnan will select to play for the Jets:
SAM DARNOLD, USC
The 6-foot-3, 221-pound Darnold will have a chance to show off his talented arm at his pro day Wednesday, but that’s just a beauty contest. He has done his work the past two seasons and demonstrated his accuracy, creativity and understanding of how opposing defenses are going to attempt to stop him.
He has figured out the answers at the college level and is ready to move onto the NFL and succeed. While it may take a year or two, Darnold should be able to make the conversion. He has the kind of size and strength that will allow him to absorb the hits and keep on performing.
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Darnold likes to stand in the pocket, wind up and deliver the ball on the money. He has shown he can shorten up on occasion without losing accuracy. He has plus arm strength, and that is evident by the way he gets the ball to the sideline when passing from the far hashmark. His ability to throw a very catchable deep ball and put the short pass right on the numbers makes him the best QB prospect in the draft.
JOSH ROSEN, UCLA
Rosen is nearly as good as Darnold, and the 6-4, 226-pound Bruin may be a bit further ahead in his development as his USC rival because his delivery is so smooth and he looks so comfortable in the pocket.
Rosen has ideal height and his release is straight over the top, so it will be very difficult for his passes to get batted downs. He also throws the best spiral of all the quarterbacks in the draft, and perhaps the best of any prospect to come out in the last three years. Rosen release is super fast, and he can surprise defenders with the way the ball leaves his hand and almost immediately reaches the intended receiver.
He has an excellent internal clock and knows when the rush is closing in. While Rosen is not a great runner, he knows how to slide in the pocket, avoid the rush and buy extra time for his receivers. Another factor in Rosen’s favor is his great confidence. He knows he can make every throw that is required, and that will be a huge factor in the locker room and the huddle.
JOSH ALLEN, WYOMING
Allen is nearly 6-5 and checks in at 237 pounds. He has become a top prospect after he was basically ignored after his high school career. Allen appeared to be nothing but a skinny hopeful when he arrived at Reedley Community College, but he steadily gained weight and stature, attracting the attention of a Wyoming assistant coach.
Allen delivers the ball with maximum velocity when he needs to. He can drive the ball into the tightest spaces and is as comfortable throwing on the move as he is in the pocket. He has also shown he can throw the ball with excellent touch.
Allen has taken a serious amount of physical abuse throughout his career and shown off his toughness on a weekly basis. He also retains the game plan as well as any of the quarterbacks in this draft, and he may be the sharpest player at the top of the first round.
BAKER MAYFIELD, OKLAHOMA
While I discount any of the comparisons to Johnny Manziel and have no doubts about Mayfield’s commitment to the game and playing winning football, he does not appear to have the same characteristics as the top three quarterbacks in the draft.
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Mayfield does not have the size that most teams want, as he is just a shade over 6 feet and weighs 215 pounds. He also does not have the best mechanics and will throw the ball without setting his feet. That means that his ball will have a tendency to sail, potentially out of his receiver’s reach.
His lack of size will also result in more tipped passes than his competition. Mayfield is smart and athletic, but much of his success with the Sooners came on shorter passes that turned out to be big plays.
The belief here is that the Cleveland Browns will take Darnold with the No. 1 pick and that the Giants will select Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the No. 2 overall selection.
That will leave the Jets with a chance to take Rosen, and he is probably the quarterback Maccagnan wants. There were reports about Rosen being difficult to work with at UCLA, but veteran analyst Gil Brandt recently debunked them. If Rosen can adapt quickly from UCLA to the NFL, he could be playing regularly by midseason – or perhaps earlier. He appears to be the star quarterback that the Jets have been missing out on for many years.