Related
With Duke getting knocked out of the NCAA tournament by Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans on Sunday night, the next time Zion Williamson will be playing organized basketball will be in an NBA uniform. Knicks fans should be doing whatever rituals suit them to make sure it will be in orange and blue.
Williamson is going to be the top pick in the NBA Draft, and there’s no question as to whether he should be. Very seldom are evaluations around NBA front offices unanimous, but it would surprise me if anyone in the league doesn’t have Williamson as their top player in the draft. He is the most dominant college basketball player in, at least, the past five seasons.
Even at his listed measurements of 6-foot-7 and 285 pounds, he is the most athletic player on the court the moment he steps onto it. He is too quick for the power forwards and centers tasked to guard him, and he is far too strong for wing players to handle in the paint and around the basket. Williamson is a walking mismatch.
His burst, quickness and width allow him to turn the corner on most defenders, and even if they manage to stay in front of him, he can still finish up and through them. His width wards off shot blockers, mitigates his lack of height, and helps him navigate wherever he wants on the court. His footwork of pivots and spin moves, made while still moving full speed to the basket, protect him from offensive fouls. His balance and body control allow him to maintain control while whirling side to side through the paint. It also allows him to use his vision as a fairly good passer off of drives and double teams.
Once he gets to the rim, there isn’t a better finisher in college basketball, and the minute he puts on an NBA uniform, there might not be a better finisher in the NBA. Even though he is only 6-foot-7, his strength, length and elite leaping ability allow him to finish up, over and through defenders. Since he is so strong, he is able to absorb contact while maintaining control in the air to finish off the glass or with dunks. There’s a reason that Williamson shot a ridiculous 68% from the field this year while averaging 22.6 points a game. He is a physical freak, and the result has been freakish numbers on the court.
His unique skillset also applies to the defensive side of the floor. He averages just under 9 rebounds (3.5 offensive), 2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks in his 30 minutes per game. As a help defender, he is NBA ready. He routinely ends possessions by making plays on the ball that are only possible because of his elite athleticism.
As a one-on-one defender, Williamson won’t be susceptible to the mismatch problems that other prognosticators think he will face at power forward in the NBA. NBA power forwards will not have the quickness to go around him, and no one will be able to back him down at 285 pounds. His length and jumping ability will make it hard to play over him.
Even the advanced numbers like Williamson. Per Basketball Reference, Williamson has a 133.1 offensive rating and 87.4 defensive rating per 100 possessions, good for an insane +45.7 net rating. His Box Score Plus/Minus (BPM) sits at 20.0. For reference, RJ Barrett’s net rating per 100 possessions sits at +14.2 and his BPM is 7.7. The numbers aren’t close.
This is not to say that Williamson is a perfect player, or even on the level that LeBron James was coming into the NBA draft. His perimeter shooting is a real problem. Though his three-point shooting has gotten all the way up to 33.8%, he is only a 64% free throw shooter. His form needs to be cleaned up. At the moment, he is also just a spot-up shooter off of standstill situations without real ability to shoot jumpers off the dribble.
His frame and weight also present some level of long-term risk. If he maintains his current size, there are fair questions as to how long he can maintain his uber-athletic wrecking ball style before succumbing to injury.
Even with those negatives, he is an immediate game-changer for an NBA team. He can fit anywhere as he can put up a double-double without even having a play run for him. He will score double-digits rather easily off of offensive rebounds, rim running and cuts and transition. He is also someone you can rely on to create his own shot, though he will likely have some adjustment to that role in the NBA against athletes closer to his own level.
For the Knicks specifically, slotting Williamson at power forward next to Mitchell Robinson could create the NBA’s most imposing front line in terms of finishing at the basket on offense, and protecting it on defense. There might be more combined dunks and blocked shots from that duo than any other two teammates on any other NBA team. There will be some spacing issues, but their combined ability to crash the offensive glass might mitigate that.
Drafting Williamson would move Kevin Knox off his eventual position of power forward (unless Williamson can play small ball center like Draymond Green), but sacrifices must be made. Williamson is a far superior prospect with a much brighter future.
If the Knicks do manage to land two big fish in free agency, Williamson would slide in nicely as a tertiary option that could dominate if opposing defenses help against players like Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. If the Knicks don’t land top free agents, he could become the team’s primary half court option and a nasty pick and roll screener or ball handler. He fits well no matter what the Knicks do this offseason.
There’s also the possibility he could be used in a trade for Anthony Davis, but such a deal likely doesn’t make sense because it would either eliminate salary cap space to add a second star, or would require the Knicks to include so many assets to match salary, the offer might actually be an overpay.
For the Knicks, sadly, the chances of landing Zion Williamson will only be 14%. For reference, as our friends at Knicks Film School pointed out yesterday, the Knicks have won 18.4% of their games this year. Last year, Jacob DeGrom got a hit in 16.4% of his at-bats. It’s not good, but it is all the Knicks have left to hang their hat on. Landing Williamson would make them a far more attractive free agent destination and would give them their best young piece since Patrick Ewing.
The lottery takes place on Tuesday, May 14. Knicks fans should be doing whatever they can to get the fates on their side between now and then because their 14% shot is all that stands between them and the only nearly surefire star in the NBA Draft.