Possibly the most anti-sports radio sentence is the exact sentence I’ll lead with in this column on a website for a sports radio station: Every QB in the NFL is a system QB.
Every. Single. One.
Tom Brady? Yup. Patrick Mahomes? Certainly. Somewhere along the way, we as the football industrial complex attached a negative connotation to the phrase “system quarterback” as if any QB has ever won a Super Bowl with a bad offensive line.We as a nation watched Patrick Mahomes run for his life in the Super Bowl last season. Patriots fans surely recall the humpty dumpty offensive line tasked with protecting Tom Brady in the 2015 AFC Championship Game all too well.
That brings us to Mac Jones and Zach Wilson, two rookie QBs who face off this Sunday as diametrically opposed foes.
Jones is coming off a one-point loss to the Dolphins in which he was sacked once, pressured 19 times but had the complement of a running game that totaled 44 yards before contact (per PFF) and a defense that held the Dolphins’ offense to 4-of-11 on third down and 3.2 yards per attempt in the rushing game. Jones had the 6th-fastest time-to-throw in the NFL and exceeded his expected completion percentage by 4.9 percent. It wasn’t 100% perfect, but fumbles by Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson caused the Patriots to lose the game. Jones did just about everything he needed to do in order to win.
Wilson, on the other hand, is a different story. There is no stat or analytic out there that would back up my opinion that Zach Wilson played well. I am a strong believer that sacks are a QB stat, not an offensive line stat. Pressures, of which the Jets allowed 17, are more indicative of poor offensive line play than sacks. But Wilson was playing backfield Galaga against an onslaught of Panthers defenders on Sunday. It’s hard to assign blame in complex situations like this, but it’s harder to blame Wilson for most of the sacks given what he had to work with.
Although Wilson and Corey Davis appear to have developed a Vulcan mindmeld sort of connection, Davis dropped two deep targets--as did rookie Elijah Moore. Furthermore, the Jets had the fourth-highest pass-run ratio in the NFL yesterday, spawned by their offensive line allowing 0.2 yards before contact in the run game.
After a certain point, offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur felt the Jets had to pass every play even though the Panthers never had more than a two-score lead. More on LaFleur’s play-calling later ...
Neither Jones nor Wilson were perfect. A pass straight into the feet of a wide open Braxton Berrios from a clean pocket in the third quarter comes to mind in Wilson’s case. But there’s a difference between performing well when under pressure and performing well when there’s pressure every single play--and not being able to lean on other aspects of your team.
Jones and Wilson are two sides of the same coin. Both are rookie QBs playing for division rivals. One is being compared to Tom Brady, the other to Patrick Mahomes. If you look past the box score and the team around Wilson, the Mahomes comparison is not unfair based on his arm talent. But it’s going to be a hell lot easier for Jones to win games this season than it will be for Wilson.
Here are three more aspects of the New York Jets to keep an eye on this Sunday:
Get Ready For Action
Everyone assumed new Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and noted Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVay confidante, would bring a similar play-action heavy scheme to the Jets. The younger LaFleur certainly brought the outside zone offense, so why wouldn’t he? After all, it’s common knowledge that play action helps quarterbacks in the NFL. The splits are undeniable. If you do not abide by this notion then the game has passed you by and you should pick a different sport to watch. This is not a space for debate. I am always right.
Matt LaFleur’s year-long sabbatical post-Rams and pre-Packers as the play-calling offensive coordinator of the Titans in 2018 gave me pause. That season, Marcus Mariota averaged 10.0 yards per attempt and a 105 passer rating on play action passes, versus 6.0 yards per attempt and 75 passer rating on non-play action passes. Yet Matt LaFleur only ran play action on 24% of first downs.
(These numbers come via Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview--Sharp’s analytical philosophy places an emphasis on success on early down as to bypass third down all together, hence the emphasis on first down in these numbers.)
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I was intrigued to see how Matt’s brother Mike approached play action with Zach Wilson. One week of data prompts me to beg the question of whether or not there’s a philosophy within the LaFleur hive mind about play action that runs contrary to that of your Shanahans or McVays. The numbers on Zach Wilson are muddied by drops and poor offensive line play, but the Jets ran four play action passes in the first half resulting in zero completions with one drop versus 16 non-play action passes resulting in six completions, 84 yards, an interception and one sack. It’s one game, but that’s a staggeringly slanted ratio for an offensive coordinator from such a celebrated coaching tree.
Welcome To New York
This preseason I paraded around talking about how the Jets offensive line was rebuilt. Technically it was, since there were players put there who were not there before. This, however, does not mean it was fixed. The first report emerged in August that Mekhi Becton was struggling to learn Mike LaFleur’s outside zone scheme. But myself and others recognized that it’s still Mekhi Becton, so even if he doesn’t get it right away, he will. Well, Becton was carted off the field in the third quarter on Sunday and will reportedly miss four-to-six weeks.
Rookie first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker gave up six pressures and a sack on Sunday. My “free money” bet this week is any sort of under bet on any of the Jets running backs.
This Is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things
The Jets’ cornerback position was the glaring black hole on their roster entering the season. It’s riddled with players that all have the same name as other NFL players who are better than them, and you can’t convince me the psychological aspect of that will not fool front offices for years to come.The safety duo of Marcus Maye and Lamarcus Joyner as well as the pass rush from Shaq Lawson had the chance to cover up the CB deficiency. However, Lawson ruptured his achilles three weeks ago and will miss the entire season. Joyner tore a tendon in his arm on Sunday and is likely to miss the season as well.
Related
As an aside completely unrelated to this, DraftKings currently has yet to post a Mac Jones passing yards bet. If that information applies to you.
Other Storylines:
- Since 2000 Bill Belichick is 6-1 against rookie head coach/QB combinations. The Patriots split with Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan in 2009, swept Ryan Tannehill and Joe Philbin in 2012, swept EJ Manuel and Doug Marrone in 2013, and beat Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano in 2013.
- Former Patriot Braxton Berrios, who failed to make New England’s 53-man roster as a 6th-round pick in 2019, saw seven targets on Sunday, tied for the team lead with Corey Davis. Berrios’ target share was in part due to Jamison Crowder and Keelan Cole being out with injuries.
- Adrian Colbert, who failed to earn a spot on the Patriots’ 53-man roster, could contribute at safety in place of Joyner. Colbert started 12 games at safety on Robert Saleh’s 49ers defenses in 2017 and 2018.