The Knicks have one game remaining in 2020, and have started the season at 2-2 thanks to consecutive victories – big wins against last year’s East regular-season top dogs, the Milwaukee Bucks, and the previously undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers.
Here are some early trends from the team, and whether or not I think they will continue as the year goes along. Let’s play sustainable or not sustainable!
1. Three Point Shooting Differential
The reason the Knicks won their last two games was three-point shooting. The Knicks shot 58 percent from behind the three-point line in their last two games, while their opponents have shot only 20 percent. The Knicks have outscored their opponents 90-52 from the three-point line, with 30 makes versus just 14 for the Bucks and Pacers, who are second and eighth in three-point shooting percentage this season.
The Knicks allowed 35 three-point attempts per game to those teams, which is about league average and a solid number. The misses, however, are likely to have more to do with their opponents simply missing open looks rather than the Knicks doing anything extraordinary in contesting them. Their opponents, for example, are shooting 20 percent on nearly nine corner three attempts per game. It is the benefit of a small sample size returning abnormally poor shooting numbers for opponents. If the results do end up being the result of spectacular defense, the Knicks might be able to get much closer to .500 this year than previously expected.
The Knicks’ shooting, on the other hand, will not continue on the torrid pace it is on from behind the arc. Here are some early shooting numbers for some key Knicks:
Julius Randle: 69% on three attempts per game
Alec Burks: 67% on five attempts per game
Elfrid Payton: 55% on three attempts per game
Frank Ntilikina: 56% on 2 attempts per game
Reggie Bullock: 43.5% on six attempts per game
With the Knicks’ inevitable shooting regression combined with their opponents’ likely improvement to the mean, it will be interesting to see how much this impacts winning and losing for Tom Thibodeau’s crew.
Verdict: Not sustainable
2. Interior Defense
The Knicks are allowing the second most shots per game (37.5) in the restricted area, but they are holding opponents to a 61 percent shooting percentage from there, which ranks 11th best in the NBA. Thibodeau will want to get the number of attempts down, but the ability to force misses thanks to the presence of Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel should make him happy.
Despite so many shots allowed in the restricted area, the Knicks are putting opponents on the free throw line only 25.5 times per game, which ranks 18th in the league. It is an indication the Knicks are not fouling unnecessarily. Free throws are one of the most efficient shots in the NBA.
Verdict: Sustainable
3. Julius Randle’s All-Star Level Play
It is amazing what good coaching will do. Randle has maintained his aggressive posture from last year attacking the paint, but he has become a far better decision maker while doing it. He still has a turnover problem (five per game) but his assist numbers are soaring (7.5 assists per game) as he is making some very high-level passes to find teammates for open three-pointers and shots at the rim.
Tom Thibodeau’s influence is obvious, and Randle looks like the type of efficient offensive player that Knicks fans envisioned when the team signed him in the summer of 2019.
Randle’s shooting is a different story. He has a 66 percent true shooting percentage, including 69 percent shooting from behind the three-point line. On mid-range jump shots, he is shooting 57 percent. Those numbers will plummet back to something closer to his career averages. It doesn’t mean that Randle can’t still be an All-Star caliber offensive player, just not the superstar he is playing like now.
Verdict: Play style yes, the shooting no.
4. Shot Profile
The Knicks are taking the sixth most shots in the league from the restricted area. The bad news is that they are only making 50 percent of those shots, which is the worst percentage in the NBA. They should continue to get shots at the rim, and their percentages there should improve as Mitchell Robinson catches some more lobs for easy dunks.
The Knicks are also taking the eighth-most right corner threes, and the fifth-most left corner threes in the NBA. This is exactly the type of shot profile NBA teams are looking for. The Knicks can still cut down on their mid-range shots a bit, but they are trending in the right direction. It shows the criticisms of Thibodeau’s offense in offseason being too reliant on mid-range jumpers might have been off-base.
Verdict: Sustainable
5. Movement
Through their first three games, the Knicks are about league average in passes per game and assists per game. They are 12th in the league in the average number of feet their players move on the court per game. It shows the Knicks have a team that moves a lot off the ball and focuses on ball movement, which are two things that lead to efficient offense.
Verdict: Sustainable
The Knicks have started the season well, but it is unlikely to continue for a simple reason: shooting. The Knicks do not have enough good shooters to continue on the torrid pace they are on right now, and their opponents are bound to start making more of their threes. Their other early indicators are positive, which should keep them competitive in many future games, even if their shooting advantage dissipates.
The most important indications early in the season are that Tom Thibodeau knows what he is doing. He has the team playing a brand of basketball that gives them a good chance to win, even if the shooting drops off. He is also helping develop young players on the roster, who are showing improvement early in the season.
We’ll see you in 2021 everyone!
Follow John Schmeelk on Twitter: @Schmeelk
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