The Knicks mailbag is open, so let’s take five questions from the Twitterverse:
Even if the Knicks draft a point guard at No. 8, he is not going to be even close to an average NBA starter in his first year. Killian Hayes and Tyrese Haliburton are the two most popular point guard targets for the Knicks at No. 8, but Hayes struggled with turnovers in Germany and would have a long adjustment to the NBA, and I do not see Tyrese Haliburton as a long-term point guard that can be a team’s primary ball-handler. He doesn’t get to the rim or shoot off the dribble well enough.
You are right that shot creation is the team’s biggest need, whether it is a point guard or a wing. Given the lack of high-end talent, that player is not going to be available in the draft and ready to help on day one.
Free agency? Fred VanVleet is the closest thing to a shot creator, if you even consider him such a player. There are not any other unrestricted free agents (assuming most players pick up their player options) that could be considered in that category. There are players that can help as shooters or stabilizing forces at point guard, but little more than that.
I’ve slowly come to the conclusion that there is little the Knicks can do this offseason to become even a .500 team next year. They are better off using this year to add necessary veterans as an avenue to evaluate the young players on the roster, continue to gather assets, and develop young players. The 2021 draft class, 2021 free agent class, and more importantly, the improvement of the young players on the roster provides a much better opportunity to make a jump in 2021-2022.
It’s one more year of losing, but there’s little change of avoiding if the Knicks want to maintain their long term goal of becoming perennial contenders.
Sure, there’s a chance. There might be a team that shows up with a better offer than the Knicks for Paul. The Knicks’ best asset to offer the Thunder is salary cap relief, but there’s a chance that won’t be enough.
There’s also a chance Toronto opens the vault for VanVleet. The Knicks would probably have to significantly outbid the Raptors in order to get him to New York. At that point, the price might become too high.
If the Knicks fail to get either player, they should add one low-cost veteran point guard that doesn’t dominate the ball and will be ready to accept the responsibility of setting up their young teammates as their first and most important job.
Even with that veteran in the mix, the Knicks would be wise to give Dennis Smith Jr., Frank Ntilikina, Jared Harper, and any point guard they draft a chance to earn as large of a role as they deserve. It is essential for Tom Thibodeau and Leon Rose to decide what they have in Ntilikina and Smith this season, as both are entering the fourth and final years of their rookie contracts before they become restricted free agents.
Ntilikina hasn’t shown the shot creation or penetration skills necessary to be a primary ball-handler. Dennis Smith Jr. didn’t look like a NBA player last year. Jared Harper hasn’t done anything outside the G-League. There’s a very good chance none of those players are the future of the position, but that determination needs to be made. The time is now. If it leads to a lot of losses and a high pick in the 2021 draft, so be it.
Chris Paul would immediately make the Knicks a better team for the next two years he is under contract. But any improvement in the short term would be overwhelmed by the long-term fallout from Paul’s bloated salary, and taking the Knicks out of the top of the draft lottery the next two seasons. The idea is to build a sustained winner, not jump to 41 wins and then start over in two seasons. Acquiring Paul would inhibit the team’s future long-term success.
I do not want Chris Paul, but if the Knicks do intend to trade for him, I would be willing to send Julius Randle, Kevin Knox, and maybe a second-round pick or a lottery-protected Mavericks pick. It is likely another team beats that offer.
It is possible. Unless Ntilikina takes a big jump I do not anticipate, I do not see him ever becoming a team’s primary playmaker. He can still be a point guard, but he would have to be paired with a ball-dominant wing that handles most of the shot-creation and playmaking. His defensive mentality and unselfish attitude seems to be fit what Thibodeau wants in his players.
His highest end outcome is as a team’s secondary ball-handler, an efficient pick-and-roll ball-handler that makes the right plays, makes open shots at above a league-average rate, and plays dominant defense. Even if he never develops the playmaking to be a secondary ball-handler, if he becomes a good shooter and lockdown defender that makes good decisions, then he will be a starter in the league for a long time. If the shooting never comes along? All bets are off.
Only so many teams have cap space. Money talks, New York is still a draw, and New York was Anthony Davis’ second most favored destination after the Lakers. There are no guarantees, but it is wise to be in the position to make offers when stars become available. It doesn’t mean sell out everything to get there like they did with the Porzingis trade, but maintaining that flexibility is the prudent thing to do.
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