Are you feeling lucky? I’m not, but I’ll still try this anyway. As we celebrate opening night, here are a baker’s dozen (lucky 13?) of bold predictions for the Knicks this season.
The Knicks will have two players on the All-Rookie team
In what is likely to be a tough year for a lot of rookies without summer league or an extended training camp, Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickley will both make all-rookie teams. Both will play regular minutes, with Quickley making a bigger impact throughout the season, only because he does not have someone like Julius Randle he will have to split minutes with. Both players will finish with double-digit scoring averages. Neither will win Rookie of the Year.
Julius Randle is dealt by the trade deadline
Randle will not have a monster year that will make another team desire him for a NBA Finals run, but his $4 million guarantee next season plus his $18 million salary will be used, along with the Knicks’ remaining cap space, to absorb a contract that extends into next season. The Knicks will be willing to sacrifice summer cap space for a future first-round draft pick because Leon Rose and William Wesley will receive good information that the Knicks will not be a desired free agent destination.
Who will the salary dump be? Wow, you really want me to be bold, eh? There honestly aren’t many great candidates. Blake Griffin is the one contract that seems perfect for a trade like this. The Rockets seem unlikely to be willing to trade what it would be necessary to move John Wall’s contract.
But it’s probably someone we haven’t thought of yet.
Three of Austin Rivers, Nerlens Noel, Alec Burks, Elfrid Payton, and Reggie Bullock will be traded at the deadline, for future second round picks
All of these players could get moved at the deadline, but injuries, needs of opposing teams, and available draft capital can change things very quickly.
There will be no takers for Payton or Bullock.
RJ Barrett finishes the season shooting .442/.332/.706 and averages 17.3 points per game
Barrett shows a better mid-range jumper but still struggles from the behind the arc. An improved free throw percentage gives hope for future growth. Barrett’s counting numbers take a big leap after Randle is traded at mid-season.
Immanuel Quickley will start the season as the starting point guard and never relinquish the job
This has as much to do with the lack of other viable options on the roster as it does Quickley himself. Quickley will prove he is a starting quality NBA guard due to his shooting and defense, but he lacks the elite playmaking chops to be a team’s top facilitator long term.
Frank Ntilikina becomes a dependable three-and-D player
Ntilikina will finally embrace an off-ball role as a defensive specialist, and gets his three-point shooting above 36 percent to become a reliable catch and shoot player.
Dennis Smith Jr. will not make it to the end of the season as a Knick, and will not have a guaranteed contract in the NBA in 2021-2022
There’s just something missing with Smith Jr. offensively. Even his explosiveness doesn’t show up as often as it should. He is not cerebral enough to make up for it.
The Knicks will not extend Mitchell Robinson
Tom Thibodeau is not completely sold on Robinson as a franchise cornerstone, and Robinson’s demands are too steep to meet. The Knicks keep him another year and risk him hitting unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2022. Robinson will be a starter on opening night.
Kevin Knox will be better but not good enough
Knox’s three-point shot will bounce back and approach 37 percent, but the rest of his game – specifically his shot creation, passing, and defense – still won’t be good enough to be more than a 10-15 minute per game player.
The starting rotation to start the season will be:
Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Alec Burks, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson
Nerlens Noel, Elfrid Payton, Obi Toppin, Kevin Knox, Reggie Bullock, Frank Ntilikina
The rotation will start a little bigger with Thibodeau still unsure who will be in there long term. Ntilikina will have to play well to maintain regular playing time once Austin Rivers returns from his groin injury.
The Knicks will win 24 games, have NBA’s third-worst record behind the Cavaliers and Thunder
The Knicks, Cavaliers, and Thunder are all at the bottom of the oddsmakers’ over/under lists for total wins, at 22.5. It is the equivalent of about a 26.5 win pace in a standard 82-game season. When all is said and done I think the Knicks will finish slightly ahead of their projected pace due to some improved play from the young players on the roster, and the structure and discipline installed by Tom Thibodeau.
The Knicks will finish third in lottery odds and select 4th in the NBA Draft
Only Cavs and Thunder will finish with worse records than the Knicks, as Blake Griffin will do just enough to help the Pistons finish with a slightly better record. Once the odds are in place in lottery night, the Knicks can select anywhere from first to seventh. They never move up for a better pick on lottery night, so a one slot drop seems about right.
The Knicks will draft Jalen Suggs out of Gonzaga and sign Victor Oladipo in the offseason
This is my projecting hope and positivity here, but as of now I would be surprised if Suggs was there to be selected at fourth overall. He would theoretically be the team’s point guard of the future. Meanwhile, Oladipo has enough of a bounce-back season for the Knicks to make him a priority, and he chooses the Knicks to play in a big market like New York, rather than staying in Indiana.
Check out the most recent episode of The Bank Shot, my Knicks podcast, where I preview the Knicks season. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts and Stitcher.
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