I’m starting to believe, but I’m not there yet.
The scars of the last 20 years of Knicks basketball run too deep to give me the confidence to jump into the deep end of the pool after seven games. KPTSD is not easily overcome. Far too often the Knicks show some signs of life early in the season that make their fans think they have turned a corner, only to go on some kind of disastrous losing streak that sucks whatever hope remains in the fan base.
But this year does feel different. The team has a proven coach that has won at a high level. Tom Thibodeau is making in-game decisions based on game flow and matchups that no Knicks coach (spare perhaps Mike D’Antoni) would have made since the days of Jeff Van Gundy. He understands the strengths of his players and how to blend them into cohesive lineups that work.
He has his team playing a brand of basketball that seems sustainable. There are some things that are bound to normalize, such as their opponent’s 29.5 percent three-point shooting, but there are other things that won’t. The Knicks play hard and have a coherent defensive philosophy with quality individual defenders at center, forward, and guard.
The Knicks are fourth in the NBA in the number of drives per game and fourth in the league in pass percentage. They move the basketball and get to the rim. According to Cleaning the Glass, they rank fourth in the NBA in the percent of their threes coming from the corner, one of the most efficient shots in basketball. They rank in the middle of the league in free throw attempts.
It is the sign of a well-coached team that knows where to find the most efficient shots, and how to get them. A coach being able to get his team to execute the plan is the hard part. It is more than just schematics. It is about buy-in.
The players have to believe in the coach’s plan and be willing to trust their teammates enough to pass up a decent shot for themselves in exchange for a better shot for someone else. They have to buy into the concept that using the additional energy for that extra defensive rotation is worth it. Talking about “culture” has become a cliché, but Thibodeau has managed, for at least seven games, to get the Knicks to play his way, the right way.
In the end, it does all goes back to the players. Despite the fact the Knicks have a similar group of players to last season, they are playing a superior brand of basketball. They are accepting coaching in ways that didn’t seem possible. It is reflected not only in individual progress but also team performance.
It’s why the Knicks’ early season success has been so much fun. The Knicks were supposed to not just be bad, but very bad. There was no reason to think this group of players was capable of playing this way and winning games. It looked like they had no star to carry the load or run the offense through, and not enough shooters to keep opposing defenses honest. It doesn’t look that way anymore.
It starts with Julius Randle, who is not only playing at an All-Star level, but a borderline All-NBA level. He is averaging 21.2 points per game on .501/.407/.762 shooting, to go along with 11.4 rebounds and a career high 7.4 assists. He has a 60 percent true shooting percentage and a 56 percent effective field goal percentage, and a usage rating in the league’s 93rd percentile.
The offense is running through Randle, who is acting as a point forward and creating high-level shots for his teammates. His assist to usage rate has nearly doubled from past seasons, and is in the top 10 percent of NBA big men. He has become a reliable decision maker, when in previous seasons that had been one of his bigger weaknesses.
Not everything is perfect. Randle is averaging nearly five turnovers per game and his perimeter shooting is bound to normalize, but his style of play has improved so much he is still going to be an effective player. He has played so well teams are starting to run double-teams at him when he catches the ball. If Randle continues to play this well and makes his teammates better, there’s a real chance Knicks fans will be thinking about the playoff play-in tournament instead of the draft lottery in April and May.
Then there are new players like Immanuel Quickley, who has added shooting, shot creation, and playmaking to the Knicks’ second unit. The Knicks would not have beaten the Atlanta Hawks without his 17 points (on only seven field goal attempts) in just under 19 minutes, most of which came in the fourth quarter.
RJ Barrett, despite his inefficient scoring, has been a good all-around player and has had more good games than bad. Austin Rivers and Alec Burks, when healthy, have proven to be good, well-rounded players on the wing. Mitchell Robinson is playing far more disciplined basketball as a defensive anchor in the paint. It’s working.
Will it continue to work, or will this five-game stretch where the team has won four games be lost to history like much of the last two decades? There’s a chance the team’s three-point defense craters, or Julius Randle reverts to his spinning into double team ways, but there’s also a chance that Tom Thibodeau doesn’t let it happen. Only time will tell if history repeats itself, no matter how different it may seem. Maybe this year is finally the year where history doesn’t repeat itself.
Check out the most recent episode of The Bank Shot, my Knicks podcast, where I talk about some New Year's Resolutions for the Knicks. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher.
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