Jacob deGrom is already hearing “MVP” chants from the Citi Field crowd with a week still to go in April, but could you blame the Mets faithful?
The chants began late in Friday night’s game against the Nationals, when deGrom emerged from the dugout and into the on-deck circle in the bottom of the eighth inning, all but confirming that manager Luis Rojas would let his ace try and finish off a complete game shutout.
deGrom stepped in and poked a single, his second hit of the game, before coming back out in the ninth to finish off the best outing of his career, which included a career-high 15 strikeouts and just two hits allowed in New York’s 6-0 victory.
April 23 is of course an early time to be hearing “MVP” cheered in your direction, but given deGrom’s first four starts of the season, can you blame the Mets home crowd? deGrom has allowed just one earned run this year, and has struck out 50 batters, the most by a pitcher in his first four starts of a season in MLB history. It’s not easy for a pitcher to win MVP, as only 25 have ever done it in baseball history, and only two have in the past 35 years. But if deGrom continues on this pace, will his candidacy be too glaring to ignore?
Let’s compare his start with recent winners to find out:
The last pitcher to win MVP was Clayton Kershaw in 2014. Despite missing all of April with back issues, the lefty came back and finished his dominant season with a 1.77 ERA in 198.1 innings, striking out 239 batters in that span. But Kershaw didn’t look like an MVP candidate through his first four starts of the season, pitching to a 4.43 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 22.1 innings. That ERA total was inflated by a disastrous game against the Diamondbacks in May, when he allowed seven runs in 1.2 innings, and he settled in and never allowed more than three earned runs the rest of the season.
After that clunker, Kershaw threw 176 innings and allowed just 28 earned runs, good for a 1.43 ERA. deGrom is far ahead of Kershaw’s pace, currently sitting with a 0.31 ERA and 50 strikeouts through four starts. deGrom has struck out 43 batters in his last three starts, while Kershaw’s best three-game stretch was 36 punchouts. Kershaw’s season-high strikeout total was 15, which deGrom just matched on Friday.
Justin Verlander won the award in the American League in 2011, finishing with a 2.40 ERA in 251 innings, striking out 250 in total (he also finished with a record of 25-9, with pitcher wins holding more value back then). He also didn’t get out to an overpowering start like deGrom, allowing 11 earned runs in his first 29 innings, logging 27 strikeouts. His best three-start strikeout stretch was 31, and his single best strikeout performance was 14 on June 25. So, deGrom is on a pace well ahead of the two previous winners, and he shows no sign of slowing down.
deGrom currently leads the league in WAR at 1.9, according to Baseball Reference. That’s a pace that would eclipse Verlander’s 8.6 and Kershaw’s 7.7. Of course, a lot of deGrom’s MVP case would have to do with his competition, as an otherworldly season from a position player would likely take precedent in the eyes of voters. Kershaw beat out Giancarlo Stanton, who hit 37 home runs and posted a 6.5 WAR in 2014, while Verlander beat out Jacoby Ellsbury, who put up an 8.3 WAR and batted .321 in 2011.
So much can happen in the coming months, but there’s no denying that deGrom is on an MVP pace, one that even surpasses the previous winners.
Follow Ryan Chichester on Twitter: @ryanchichester1
Follow WFAN on Social Media
Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | Twitch