According to reports, the Mets are now operating under the assumption that Pete Alonso will be signing elsewhere, as the idea of New York parting with its homegrown star and longest-tenured player becomes more and more real.
The news caused a large portion of the fanbase to revolt at the idea of Alonso leaving in free agency, and the Mets letting a player that could have rewrote their record books walk.
For others, the potential fallout is even more exciting than Alonso staying in Queens and batting behind Juan Soto. The ultimate safety blanket from Alonso anxiety? The possibility of replacing him with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the next young superstar set to hit the free agent market next winter.
It’s hard to blame any Mets fan for taking that excitement and running with it all the way to the trade deadline or next offseason. After all, Guerrero is over four years younger and outpaced Alonso by 3.6 WAR last season, earning a fourth consecutive All-Star selection thanks while batting .323 with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS. A core of Guerrero, Soto, and Francisco Lindor locked up for years to come in Queens? If it’s not quite Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman, it’s pretty damn close.
But there are clear and serious hurdles that the Mets would have to clear to make the Guerrero dream a reality. So, if Steve Cohen and company have their sights set on another major splash, it comes at a high risk, though the reward would admittedly be astronomical.
The main variable is the Blue Jays, who, according to The Athletic, are expected to ramp up their efforts to lock up Guerrero to an extension before the superstar’s self-imposed deadline of Feb. 17 to reach a deal. Toronto has been foaming at the mouth in an attempt to lure a big star north of the border. They tried, and failed, to sign Shohei Ohtani last year. This offseason, they reportedly had interest in the likes of Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes. They landed none of them. If Roki Sasaki picks the Padres or Dodgers, the Jays would have missed out on another big-time name. A franchise eager to spend and finally cash in on a star, the Blue Jays will almost certainly make an all-out push to keep their homegrown star for life, even if it means bidding against themselves.
While Guerrero could very well take the Soto approach and keep his sights on free agency to potentially increase the bidding even more, what if Toronto makes it known that it won’t be denied, and makes Guerrero an offer that he can’t refuse?
Let’s say Guerrero doesn’t sign an extension, his deadline passes, and the Jays go into the season with their lone star facing the open market come November. Mets fans would understandably look to the trade deadline, and hopes that Toronto will fall out of the race, grow wary that Guerrero will want to stay long term, and get as many assets for him as possible in July rather than losing him for nothing but a draft pick in the offseason? It’s certainly a possibility, but even for a team like Toronto that has failed to consistently reach the playoffs in the Guerrero era, it’s hard to envision a star-starved team waving the white flag on their best homegrown player in recent memory, especially in an era of expanded postseason and when the American League is so weak.
Kicking the can down the road to next offseason. Mets fans have seen an owner relentlessly pursue a player in the very recent past with Soto, as Steve Cohen was seemingly willing to go to any lengths to get the young superstar and change the landscape of power in New York. After missing on so many stars, Blue Jays ownership led by Edward Rogers III may be just as motivated to do the same with Guerrero. If it came to a bidding war, Rogers wouldn’t go down easy. Cohen is the richest owner in baseball by billions, but coming in second in that category? That would be Rogers and the Blue Jays, who will be eager to drop a hefty payday at Guerrero’s feet if it came to it. Just like Cohen dared Soto to walk away from the most money, Toronto could very well do the same with Guerrero, and finally have convinced a superstar to call The Six his home.
The risks to letting Alonso walk are real. The possibility of Guerrero forming a superstar trio is also real. The Mets will just have to conquer another motivated owner with ridiculous levels of wealth pushing to make Toronto a premier destination for future stars, much like Cohen did with Soto in Queens.