By Marc MalusisCBS Sports Radio
Kentucky Derby 144 is one of the most competitive and balanced fields that we have seen in quite some time. Is it loaded with great 3-year-olds? I would not say that yet, but I would say it is a really good group that has showed really good promise so far. With that being said, I think win contention goes eight deep. Audible, Good Magic, Justify. Hofburg, Bolt d'Oro, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon and Vino Rosso can all win the race depending on how it unfolds.
I do think there will be a hotly contested pace up front with Promises Fufilled setting the tempo which should help set it up for horses sitting mid-flight or a deep closer. My top selection is the Florida Derby winner Audible, a New York-bred horse who has shown the ability to win on the pace or just off of it. I would also love to see jockey Javier Castellano win his first Kentucky Derby, which is really the only blemish on his career.
I will be keying Audible on top and using Hofburg, Bolt d'Oro and Mendelssohn underneath. I don't think trainer Bill Mott would saddle Hofburg if he did not believe he was a big-time runner. He is really talented, and I trust that Mott will have him ready to fire on Saturday. I think Bolt d'Oro will run third. He ran second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. I think his pedigree and running style suit the distance, and he should find his way into the exotics.
My fourth choice is the Aidan O'Brien-trained Mendelssohn, who embarrassed the field in the UAE Derby. He has already traveled to the States and been victorious, having won last year's BC Juvenile Turf at Del Mar. His human connections are off the charts, as he will be ridden by one of the best jockeys in the world in Ryan Moore. He is bred for dirt, and if his UAE Derby is for real, he could be any kind. He is a must use in the exotics.
Marc's Top 4 Derby Picks1. Audible2. Hofburg3. Bolt d'Oro4. Mendelssohn
We also asked WFAN producer Brian Monzo and WFAN and CBS Sports Radio hosts Chris Moore and Jody McDonald for their Kentucky Derby picks. Here's what they said:
BRIAN MONZO1. Bolt d'Oro2. Magnum Moon3. Justify4. Combatant
Suggested wagers and thoughts:
Bolt d'Oro was the best 2-year-old last year. He returned with a win and a solid second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. Justify had an uncontested pace in that race, but that won't be the case in the Derby. To me, Magnum Moon is the best threat because we just don't know how good this horse is. He's shown the ability go to the lead or sit back and pounce late. He draws the 16th gate, which isn't favorable. Combatant always runs his race, and I think, even in the 20th gate, his late running style and value could pick up a piece in the exotics.
I'm doing $50 to win, $25 to place on Bolt d'Oro. I am going to use him on top of the exacta with half the field. I'm not dumb, and I see a lot of big prices that can be flying late (Combatant, My Boy Jack, Enticed, Good Magic, Hofburg), so, as a backup, I will use Justify on top of an exacta, with every horse that is 15-1 or more and hope for a 60-1 to come in.
Good luck!
CHRIS MOORE1. Good Magic2. Justify 3. My Boy Jack
Suggested wager:$2 exacta with Good Magic and Justify over My Boy Jack, Magnum Moon, Bolt D'Oro and Vino Rosso. Total wager: $16
JODY McDONALD1. Audible2. Hofburg 3. Flameaway
Suggested wager: $1 trifecta box: Audible, Hofburg, Flameaway$2 straight trifecta: Audible with Hofburg with Flameaway. Total wagers: $8
