The New York Rangers were a puck-line underdog to the Carolina Hurricanes in the first five games of their second-round series. In three of those games — 1, 2, and 5 — their puck-line odds, aka vig or juice, were at least -250.
The Rangers covered in Games 1 and 2, but didn’t in Game 5. Even with a 2-1 ATS record in those games, their ROI was -8.8%. For example, if you bet $100 on each of those three puck lines, you would’ve lost $26.
In that small sample size, the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze. What about a larger sample size?
Puck-line underdogs with juice of -250 or greater have covered 73% of games this season (including the postseason). But that has resulted in an ROI of just 1.7% for more than 150 games.
Historically, that’s a tremendous return.
It’s currently the third-best ROI since 2005. In 15 of those 19 seasons, the ROI is negative, including five years of -7% and two years of -10%.
As of Tuesday’s NHL odds at BetMGM, the Rangers are a +1.5 puck-line underdog at -275 against the Florida Panthers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference final. If the juice holds, it’ll be just the 29th game since the 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs at -275 or greater.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for more Game 1 odds, including prop bets, parlays, and alt puck lines. And check New York sportsbook promos this week for potential offers.