Aaron Judge is a free agent, and whether you think he will be a Yankee, a Giant, or something else, you should be prepared for this to take a while. In fact, the Yankees are unlikely to even make Judge an offer in the early going.
As Judge becomes the most prominent Yankee in a generation to test free agency, I asked a veteran agent and a former General Manager (neither of whom has any ties to Judge or the Yankees) to open a window into how the process will work.
Both agreed that there is almost zero chance the Yankees even make Judge an offer during the exclusive window that runs through the end of the World Series. And that has as much to do with the player as it does the team.
“We couldn’t get something done before spring training, and now I’m a free agent and we’ll see what happens,” Judge told reporters after the Yankees were eliminated in the ALCS.
Notice there was no mention at all about still having time before other teams jump into the mix. Judge turned down the Yankees’ final spring proposal – seven years at $30.5 million per season – just before Opening Day. Now he is only days away from open bidding, and there is little reason for him to accept a deal from the Yankees right now.
And that’s not unusual. Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Derek Jeter – Monument Park Yankees – all reached the point of free agency where other teams called to express interest and make offers.
Related
“No way Judge signs in that window,” the veteran agent said. “I’d be absolutely floored by that. That would almost be malpractice. You don’t get five days from hearing what the market has to say regarding your value – especially as a first time free agent, especially one of his stature – and preempt that.”
The Yankees, meanwhile, have little to gain by making an offer now. It would immediately give Judge and his agent something to show the other teams: here is what the Yankees have just offered, so what do you guys have?
Officially, Day 1 of free agency begins at 9 a.m. on the day after the World Series ends. That’s when teams begin to call Judge and can discuss anything except dollars.
According to the rules set forth in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, a team can call to say they are interested in signing Judge, discuss what position he will play, how many years they want to offer (including guarantees and no-trade provisions), what their city and organization have to offer, suggest places he could live, etc. This is the beginning of the recruiting pitch.
The former GM says it will sound something like this: “Aaron, our goal is to win. We want you, we need you, you’re the center of our off-season. Here’s our team, here’s what we’re likely to spend. We view you as the top free agent and we’re prepared to make you a competitive offer.”
An official offer won’t happen yet. That never comes with the first phone call, the agent said, especially with a superstar at Judge’s level.
Related
“They may call and say, ‘We have significant interest in Aaron. We know it’s going to take significant years and dollars.’ And they may stop there,” the agent said. “Or, they may add, ‘Can you give us a sense of what you’re thinking in regard to length? Does Aaron have preferences on where he’d like to play? Does he have a timeframe that’d he’d like to have this done by?’”
These early calls are little more than a venture onto the dance floor.
“Teams are always looking to gather info, not give info in those early calls,” the agent said. “I like to call them ‘nothing calls.’ Even teams with no real interest are going to call because they want to get a sense of his market if they can, because it affects other players they may be looking at.
“Personally,” the agent continued, “my approach to the teams is always, ‘Once you make a concrete offer, I’d be happy to share information about how we see the market. Until then, I simply am not going to share that information with everyone who just calls.’ They understand that, but you’ve got to say it.”
What is called The Quiet Period, where money is not allowed to be discussed, lasts five days. At 5 p.m. on Day 5, the monetary offers can begin. Even then, there is little chance real money offers are being made yet – it’s still too early in the process – but the serious teams continue the recruiting push and try to set up a visit to meet with them, see the surrounding areas, etc.
If it’s the Giants, it’s hard not to think a Barry Bonds phone call is already being planned given Judge’s well known boyhood fandom of Bonds and the Giants.
If it’s the Dodgers, expect Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, or Clayton Kershaw to give him a call. The peer-to-peer sales pitch is an important one since they are the ones the player will work with every day, become teammates and friends with once he signs.
“It’s very effective to plan on multiple conversations with as many different people as possible to try and get him thinking about playing here,” said the former GM.
One never knows which call will carry the most weight. Mike Mussina was immediately impressed by Joe Torre when the Yankees’ manager took time to call him the day after winning the 2000 World Series. Gerrit Cole was giddy talking to one of his boyhood heroes Andy Pettitte about pitching in New York.
The Yankees, however, do not have to sell Judge on the team, the city, the franchise, and the experience. That stuff is for people who’ve never played there. The Yankees have been making their pitch to Judge since the day they drafted him.
The player can and will ask questions, about the manager, the direction of the team, their future payrolls. All of this can help determine the commitment to winning. He will not want to make the most important decision for him and his family without knowing everything he can. This part isn’t about money, because we all know that will be there. This part is about using your leverage to get as much information as possible before making the biggest decision of your life.
So at what point in all of this do the Yankees re-enter the discussion? A good spot is probably when Judge has visits to other teams scheduled. These won’t be a secret; the agent will want to maximize the exposure for his client to help drive up the price.
Related
“When you know he’s having other visits you want to make sure it doesn’t get away from you, where Judge starts to see himself somewhere else,” the former GM said. “The biggest mistake teams make is they forget they still need to recruit their own guy. Cashman still needs to show Judge the love. Otherwise he starts to feel the love elsewhere because they’re putting on a full-court press.”
Pettitte went through this to a degree when he signed with the Astros after the 2003 season. Williams, Rivera, and Posada all went down the road with other teams before the Yankees reeled them back in.
The Yankees can be patient with Judge, but only to a point, thinks the agent.
“Brian has always been more of a ‘I know you’re going to explore your options, but obviously we want you back, we want you to retire as a Yankee, but go see what’s out there and then let’s circle back and talk’ kind of guy,” the agent said. “But the longer the process goes – the recruiting by other teams, the calls, etc. – the more it actually becomes a real option. When the player starts to say to himself, ‘I can see myself playing there,’ that is a mental and emotional threshold for the player and his family. Once it’s crossed it makes retaining him that much more difficult for the Yankees.”
So how long exactly will all this play out?
Some of the biggest signings ever – Alex Rodriguez in 2000, Gerrit Cole in 2019 – took place at the Winter Meetings in early December. The pandemic knocked out the last two Winter Meetings, but the 2022 edition is scheduled for the week of December 4 in San Diego. It’s a good bet that where Judge signs and for how much will take at least that long to determine.
Will Judge stay with the Yankees? Will the final deal top $40 million per year? Will he get eight years, or more? These are the important questions we all want answered. And they will be eventually. Just don’t expect it to happen soon.
After all, a good Judge does not render important verdicts hastily.
Follow Sweeny Murti on Twitter: @YankeesWFAN
Listen live to WFAN via:
Audacy App | Online Stream | Smart Speaker
Follow WFAN on Social Media:
Twitter | Facebook | Instagram | YouTube | Twitch