Most years we look to the NFL Draft as the spot to fill that one gaping hole on the roster. Sure, there are seven rounds and lots of small holes to plug every year, but, for me, it’s always one big spot.
You may remember the most recent hits in this department:
- Draft the quarterback
- Dear God get a No. 1 wide receiver
Through the many years of the Buffalo Bills' droughts, the quarterback conversation was, of course, the loudest, and the one had most often. But now that the Bills are entering a different league, of sorts, the conversation will undoubtedly change.
Maybe you can, but I can’t shout out one spot as confidently as I could in years past.
That quarterback thing? They did that.
The No. 1 wide receiver quest? Completed.
Now the points get a little finer, the needs a little more specific. So while the Bills head to a draft needing less, there’s no doubt that the desire to close those small gaps might be more intense.
Think of draft picks as league-assigned cheap labor. Since the rookie wage scale was put into place, that’s pretty much what it has become. You don’t do anything to earn these picks, and you’re slotted higher for being bad.
So, if you’re a bad team, they’re obviously very important to hang on to. You can’t get better unless you can find a way to get league-assigned cheap labor to fill your holes.
Thinking of draft picks this way is what makes me think the Los Angeles Rams did just fine in the Matthew Stafford trade. Yes, they gave up two first round picks, and they’ve done that an awful lot, but they’re spending “big” for known commodities.
The Rams have a clear goal to win now, and they’d like to roll with the bankable asset, with the cost being that they lose potential upside of draft picks, and they lose that “cheap labor” freedom that you get. Nobody ever got into cap jail with their draft picks, right? So if you know who you are and what your risks are, and I believe the Rams do, then it’s a reasonable plan.
The Bills aren’t quite in the same boat, but the Stefon Diggs trade is a sign that they’re wiling to speed things up a bit, and move assets for a bankable score.
First, let’s talk about the Bills' “big holes”.
One or two may be vacated by players on the roster, of course. Linebacker Matt Milano, guard Jon Feliciano, and tackle Daryl Williams all play an important part in helping this Bills team. You have three potential holes to fill with those spots, but, for now, we have to slot all three as "TBD" (to be determined).
For now, I just wanna run through the options I see as reasonable pursuits, because until those three leave, they’re just potential holes to fill.
The offensive line might be worth addressing.
If the Bills want to run the ball more effectively, and we know they do, finding a mix of five men up-front that can have more success in the run game would be important. This Bills team struggled to run the ball all that effectively this season.
For a second straight season, Devin Singletary was near the top of the league in percentage of runs into light boxes. The Bills scheme up good run looks, and still can’t do much with them. So while the offensive line could improve that, so could the running backs themselves.
Singletary and Zack Moss, per NFL Next Gen Stats, clocked in at 0.29 and 0.07 rushing yards over expectation per-attempt, respectively. Moss faced loaded boxes three times more frequently than Singletary through these carries too, but those numbers rank the Bills backs at 22nd and 38th in the advanced metric.
While you may have something to say about the line, the backs don’t do anything special, to this point. If the Bills want to be more effective at running the football, the easiest change would be at running back. Yes there are other ways to do it, but you don’t have a game-breaker here. Not to this point. We can argue about the asset, but boiling it down to the 22nd and 38th best backs at “getting more” is a tough look.
I graduated out of the “get a running back” mindset many years ago, but I’m moving back in. I think it’s a good idea. One of many to get this team to the next level.
They’ll have big decisions to make, all on fixing the finer points of, what is already, a good team. Running back, tight end, offensive play-maker X, second corner, Milano’s replacement, edge rusher, and “help in the trenches” make up a long list of needs for the Bills. That term, though, "need", is hitting me differently this time around.
Long list, for sure. Less desperation on which way they go.
I’ll keep saying it up until draft day - I think there are a lot of good ideas.